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Dubious sell-off     

ellio - 15 May 2006 09:10

The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

cynic - 01 Aug 2007 10:43 - 739 of 1564

absolute rubbish!

1) markets have been going up, with some corrections en route, for a long time and this cannot last for ever.
2) the sub-prime lending problem in US is potentially very serious especially if some of the hedge funds start to feel the heat and at best have to start unloading stocks, or at worst, fold
3) the latest sub-prime lender in trouble, as reported late yesterday, is seemingly no tiddler

how can you then be surprised that the markets catch fright?

how far and for how long they will fall is currently anyone's guess, though chartists will tell you that Dow could easily fall another 250 points (12750) and quite possibly 1100 points (12000).

old and tried and tested adage says that when Wall Street sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold.

HARRYCAT - 01 Aug 2007 12:28 - 740 of 1564

Looks like another 'down' day for the DOW.
Are you shorting the index, cynic?
jimmyB was right about a big step back yesterday, but it's getting more & more difficult to predict, imo.

cynic - 01 Aug 2007 12:32 - 741 of 1564

Harry ..... go to TA thread and all will be revealed! .... in fact i closed at a very tasty profit at about 08:30 this morning .... could have done better, but hardly griping ..... Dow opening now showing almost neutral having been forecast earlier as much as 120 points down since last night

HARRYCAT - 01 Aug 2007 12:40 - 742 of 1564

O.K. Thanks.
Am going to sit on my hands this afternoon, so that I am not tempted to push any buttons! Much too difficult to call, imo.

alanatml2 - 01 Aug 2007 15:34 - 743 of 1564

Cynic is one of the herd and have heard only the official line which continues to be regurgitated to create volatility in the markets. Without volatility the financial sectors would not 'make' fantastic salaries, so it is to their benefit to create uncertainty through the official announcements. So what if a few hedge funds with super-high-risk strategies go under for a few $100M. The market has just taken $90billion out of circulation. Surely the immense global banking system can get these 'get rich quick merchants' with virtual assets under control. Taiwan has just started a review to find out if the local market will be affected by US sub-prime lending problems - they just don't know.

Interest rates were increased 5 times in UK to address the so called rising inflation indexes. However the UK government can reduce inflation at a stroke by reducing stealth and windfall taxes in all sectors. This includes all regulatory payments introduced into every aspect of British life to pay for over-government and vast armies of civil servants which (in their own words) are not fit for purpose.

Is this a real crash coming or another 'wave' to ride? The financial gurus better get to grips with these situations before we have a tsunami.

cynic - 01 Aug 2007 16:10 - 744 of 1564

sorry alan, but you really do talk a load of total and utter bollocks, and that is even when compared to me!

Is this a real crash coming or another 'wave' to ride?
can't tell, but history shows that these violent daily swings tend to mean very sharp correction at the very least

The financial gurus better get to grips with these situations before we have a tsunami.
nothing economists or the banks can do to stop these wild gyrations and/or sharp corrections or even somewhat or something worse ...... it is sentiment, as you should know if you have ever seen either a bull or a bear market in action, and seen how the markets react to good or bad news respectively

Big Al - 02 Aug 2007 02:02 - 745 of 1564

Blimey, what an absolute pile of crap!

It's a long time since I've seen anyone with such little knowledge about what's going on economically in the world as Mr alanatml2. Historically, with the inflation indices as high as they are, interest rates should probably be in excess of 7%. Think yourself lucky the BoE have pussyfooted around! ............. or rahter wait and see how high they have to go to really tame the inflation tiger.

Strawbs - 04 Aug 2007 10:25 - 746 of 1564

If the markets crash then they probably won't need to go much higher......
A financial meltdown is always a good way to knock consumer confidence. ;-)

Although speaking to friends over the last few weeks, I don't think there's many retail investors left in the markets this time. They seem to have learnt the lessons of recent crashes and cashed in early.......My pessimism obviously rubbed off... :-)

Strawbs.

maddoctor - 05 Aug 2007 14:41 - 747 of 1564

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks will fall next week, continuing a broad sell-off seen on Friday, as investors stay on high-alert for more bad news linked to dodgy home loans, credit woes, and their potential impact on the broad economy, analysts said.
"My expectations are that equities are in for another volatile week," said Mike Malone, trading analyst at Cowen & Co. "It's going to be difficult for equities to sustain any gains until the concerns in the credit markets begin to wane."
Investors will also anxiously await the meeting of the Federal Reserve on Tuesday to see whether central bankers signal growing concerns about credit markets.

skyhigh - 06 Aug 2007 07:54 - 748 of 1564

Looks like another big fall due today...expecting another hammering on my portfolio ! It's grim isn't it !

cynic - 06 Aug 2007 08:11 - 749 of 1564

given that there seems to have been no bad news over w/e, would not be at all surprised to see quite hefty bounce on Dow this afternoon, though sustainability is indeed questionable

Big Al - 06 Aug 2007 20:56 - 750 of 1564

Not a bad reading of the market, cynic. ;-)

cynic - 06 Aug 2007 21:12 - 751 of 1564

seem to have the touch at the mo, and not only called correctly, but also bought in when i got home and could monitor ...... just took profit at 13434 = 145 points .... thank you very much, says the bank manager, will help offset some of the languishing losses in the portfolio, with honourable exceptions like ICI, PRX, LEAD and SCHE!

maddoctor - 06 Aug 2007 21:23 - 752 of 1564

and that entry my friend tells me you know a lot more about TA than you profess here

cynic - 06 Aug 2007 21:35 - 753 of 1564

wish i did, or perhaps too much knowledge can be a hindrance ...... with Dow being so damn volatile, it is perhaps easier to make money in either direction merely by being watchful and nimble ..... for example, Dow indications about midday were +80, then fell away to about -30 when US opened ...... 13255 was a support/resistance i have been watching and noticed when i got home (and could monitor) that that had been breached and was holding so took the plunge .... that said, it was made easier by having banked a decent bit on friday night on bear tack ..... easy to be clever when you hit a lucky streak and get it right, but hubris is a dangerous thing and can sandbag you quickly if care not taken

maddoctor - 06 Aug 2007 21:48 - 754 of 1564

well picked out anyway

cynic - 07 Aug 2007 07:56 - 755 of 1564

no idea what today will bring ..... am very mistrustful of markets when they gyrate so dramatically and through such a wide range

BigTed - 07 Aug 2007 10:03 - 756 of 1564

Same old story, FTSE rebounds, but the screen shows minimal gains, got caught in this correction after being away for several days a couple of weeks ago and now consider riding out the storm to be the best option...

Strawbs - 07 Aug 2007 10:33 - 757 of 1564

Bear market already? Telegraph Article: History says bear market may have begun

Strawbs

cynic - 07 Aug 2007 10:47 - 758 of 1564

excellent article; well worth reading
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