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ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND (RBS)     

cashcaptain - 09 May 2007 13:23

ANYONE KNOW WHY THE ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND IS SHOWING A SHARE PRICE AROUND THE 6.59 MARK WHEN IT WAS 18.00 OR SO THE OTHER WEEK OR AM I GOING STRANGE?????????????

spitfire43 - 18 Apr 2008 16:16 - 74 of 676

Picking up cheap stock. That is exactly how I would see it, so the low 3.00 figure could be what I would like to see. But would still expect to see this unless whole market remains bullish.

halifax - 18 Apr 2008 16:17 - 75 of 676

Pretty expensive way to raise capital with RBS shares yielding 9% unless you reduce the dividend subsquently.

Guscavalier - 18 Apr 2008 16:20 - 76 of 676

and this may be the time Sovereign Wealth Funds take stakes an look to take a longer view ?

halifax - 18 Apr 2008 16:37 - 77 of 676

May prove difficult to get a rights issue away in volatile markets, in normal conditions it would not need to be underwitten... perhaps an opportunity to earn some fat fees?

spitfire43 - 18 Apr 2008 18:24 - 78 of 676

I'm impressed Halifax theres more to you than meets the eye, surely you wouldn't underwrite the whole lot, must spread some of the risk............lol

halifax - 18 Apr 2008 21:25 - 79 of 676

No I'll leave it to Goldman and Merrill they need the money more than I do in these hard times!!

hlyeo98 - 19 Apr 2008 21:49 - 80 of 676

The 6 billion write-off that RBS will announce from its continuing exposure to the sub-prime meltdown in America is bigger than expected, as is the rights issue

mitzy - 19 Apr 2008 22:12 - 81 of 676

Some press reports suggest a write-down of 10b and a rights issue of 15b and the sale of Direct Line and Churchill for 4b and the cancellation or reduction of the dividend..

When did it all go wrong..?

greekman - 20 Apr 2008 11:05 - 82 of 676

But can we believe anything that is said, as RBS stated after the last write down that there would be no more hidden exposure to the sub prime market surfacing. At the time many of us stated that we were skeptical that the whole truth was out.
I personally don't think they have anything further hidden, as to come to the market again after this proposed issue would destroy any belief/confidence left.

spitfire43 - 20 Apr 2008 11:27 - 83 of 676

I remember in February that most people here were indeed skeptical to the true extent of writedown then, and expected more to come. RBS must use this week to clear the decks with writedowns, and have large enough rights issue, to ensure they don't have to come back to the shareholders. I wonder if as recently as February, RBS like most banks may not have had a clear picture of the amounts of risk they were holding, ABN Ambro had higher exposure to sub prime debts, than most European Banks.

Watch now as other banks scramble to follow RBS, re writedowns and rights issues.

greekman - 21 Apr 2008 09:10 - 84 of 676

Someone on another site posted that the heads of managements at banks/building societies should have been more aware and should take cuts in salaries/bonuses.
The post was rubbished soon after. It was rubbished with the reasons given that most banks hardly realized there was sub prime in the deals they were buying, due to the way they were packaged and sold off to unsuspecting banks.
Whatever happened to Due Diligence. If you were intending to buy a company and went to these banks for a loan they would question what steps you had taken to investigate the companies profits/loss, debt, cash flow, potential etc, almost the third degree as I know to my own experience.
Whilst appreciating that the buying of a business to purchasing packaged loans is not an exact parallel, the banks that took on these financial loan packages (on reading many sub prime articles) carried out about as many checks as most punters carry out buying knocked off CD's at a car boot sale.
Some institutions that bought these packages now admit their checks were somewhat lax, whilst many experts (yes I know hindsight is a great thing) have stated that many bought with almost no checks, IE bought almost as seen.
The truth is probably somewhere in between.
They took on these packaged loans, because they were obviously priced at such an on the surface bargain that greed and not prudence was the order of the day. Many then re-sold on, probably still not full aware of their true value.
So yes I fully agree with the statement that the salaries and bonuses should be cut, but don't limit this to RBS. All such Dell Boy dealings should have been seen for what they were. We are talking about top so called financial experts here, who like those markets of old, 'OK son you have just bought a bargain, now don't open the box till you get home'.

mitzy - 21 Apr 2008 12:36 - 85 of 676

Telegraph says a RI at 1for 2 @250p.

halifax - 21 Apr 2008 13:07 - 86 of 676

Surely that will crush their sp?

cynic - 21 Apr 2008 13:11 - 87 of 676

not necessarily ..... though it will of course be dilutory, the market may well perceive (and that is the important factor) that the end of the world is not imminent and that this presents a good opportunity to pick up cheap stock

dealerdear - 21 Apr 2008 13:35 - 88 of 676

IMO I don't think people have a clue what they are going to say.

There is an awful lot of speculation in the papers but very little fact.

A rights issue, probably, as for the divi, who knows.

spitfire43 - 21 Apr 2008 13:48 - 89 of 676

Whatever the rights issue price might be, it's worth bearing in mind that historically it's not uncommon for the sp to drift lower than the right issue price afterwards. I'm not saying that this will happen with RBS, but if the BOE injection of cash today takes time to take effect, which of course it will, then fear could easily return to the sector.

halifax - 21 Apr 2008 14:40 - 90 of 676

It all depends on the markets appetite for the billions of shares about to be issued in a sector which is completely out of favour. For once the underwriters might earn their fat fees!

mitzy - 22 Apr 2008 07:41 - 91 of 676

200p incredible..

spitfire43 - 22 Apr 2008 08:07 - 92 of 676

Didn't expect that, and sp only down 10p at moment.

greekman - 22 Apr 2008 08:28 - 93 of 676

Even with the dilution the offer price is at a bit more discount than I was expecting, especially with the extra cash not going toward a bale out as such. As I understand it is going into the cash pile. My skeptical thought is with the offer price discount as it is are there further write downs to come. I very much doubt it, but as said in Post 82, they have stated before that there would be no further write downs, and look what has just been declared.
Not jumping up and down yet with the excitement of the offer. Banks don't give things away now do they, so not decided yet whether to take my allocation.
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