Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

3 more Charts to take into consideration for Interest Rate expectations
and the possible effect upon the Euro.

Euribor (March) showing the Banks' averaged short term interest rates,
stalling around 4%, and the 2yr Schatz(March) and 5yr Bobl (March)showing similar
stuff to the 10yr Bund.

Well thank you, googlemeister :)
I'm heavily biased towards the larger 'Haven't got a Clue' type trading range.
Hope this helps ;)



Anyone up for 1.9350s?

Have to go out today so not trading. I'm leaving a short to trigger at 1.9570. Could you escort it to 1.9350 please.

cyalata

Pay deals hit 8-year high in January
Fri Feb 16, 2007 1:08AM GMT


By Christina Fincher

LONDON (Reuters) - Pay deals rose at their fastest pace in more than eight years in January as workers demanded wages keep pace with a rising cost of living, according to a survey by pay consultants Industrial Relations Services.

The findings may worry policymakers who are keen to avoid a wage-price spiral after retail price inflation, the basis for most pay deals, hit a 15-year high in December.


The survey showed median wage settlements rose to 3.5 percent in the three months to end-January, the highest since November 1998. This compares with 3.0 percent for the three months to December, a level that had been maintained for more than three years.

"Our prediction that rising headline inflation would feed through to pay awards by January is borne out by our latest findings," said Sarah Welfare, editor of the consultancy's Pay and Benefits bulletin.

"We expect to see a pattern of higher pay awards continue in the first few months of 2007."

Concern over inflationary pay deals has been sparked by several high-profile settlements in recent weeks. British Airways has offered employees a 4.6 percent pay rise, while automakers Ford and BMW have offered wage rises above 4 percent.

Still, policymakers may take some comfort from the fact that the median rise in the IRS survey is less the 3.6 percent initially suggested.

The IRS said three-quarters of the 106 awards included in its survey were higher than a year ago. It also found pay awards in the manufacturing sector were higher than in the services sector.

This finding runs counter to a survey by the EEF employers' body earlier this week which found manufacturing pay settlements fell to 2.9 percent in the three months to end-January, down from a revised 3.2 percent in the three months to end-December.

Blimey, I'm glad I wasn't screen watching today - I'd have started to go stir crazy. Looks like an extremely narrow trading range 9510 to 9575 with a little drop to 65 ......

Interestingly it seems to have paused on the bottom end of a downie/slopie thingymybob. If it breaks through that one it'll be off to chocciepops 9350 and she'll go all gooey with joy. Otherwise it's up to 9610/20 where the downie/slopie meets the uppie/slopie.

All in my everso humbly opinionie.

Have a great weekend everyone - except SOS.

mg (Not quite in the same league as Mel - whose analysis puts us all to shame. But you've gotta avago ain't yer)

Gooey huh ;)

Our friends at DailyFX have failed to provide the usual link to the Economic Release Calendar this week, so the FX Fairy has hacked in the HTML as best he can on the basis that the information is more important than the elegance of the presentation. The Fairy sends his apologies to Madame Hilary and the denizens of this fine thread but he's done his best, honest.

MM,

Damned fine show sir!, stirling effort, wot?....stand you a whisky and soda next time etc...

SC

Test

MM,

There must somehow be a way to either save or print the Excel file to an image file (JPG or GIF). I guess that must be what KL does each week.

If we could get an image, it could then be hosted (Photobucket restricts image sizes unfortunately) somewhere and hotlinked to.

PS. I would've thought that this glitch is only temporary. She probably got one of the monkeys to do it this week while she's off galavanting for the Chinese New Year.

Hil, that's why I thought I'd leave it a week. Thank you for caring :)

BoE says environment for inflation likely to become less benign UPDATE
AFX


(Updating with additional comment)

LONDON (AFX) - The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee said some of the factors that have kept inflation in check over the past 10 years may be eroding.

Cheaper imports, globalisation and increased labour supply, due partly to inward migration, have all helped dampen inflation, it said in a written submission to the the parliamentary Treasury Committee.

But the status-quo is not likely to remain. 'The environment is unlikely to be so benign in the future,' the central bank said.

'Many of the benefits of globalisation have already worked through, and the adverse impact on commodity prices of the development of China and India is now being felt,' it said.

The globalisation process over the past decade has reduced inflationary pressures and helped boost growth, providing a 'beneficial tailwind' to the work of the MPC, but these effects will only be temporary, the MPC warned.

The emergence of low-cost producers in countries such as China has led to a rise in the price of UK exports relative to that of its imports, increasing the real purchasing power of employees' wages.

'Such a terms-of-trade improvement ... allows the economy to grow a little faster for the same inflation rate, or else for inflation to fall without requiring growth to dip,' the report said.

This bonus is likely to be temporary, however, because workers' wage aspirations will gradually rise and as emerging economies begin to catch up with their developed economy counterparts.

Additionally, the labour force is unlikely to grow as rapidly as it has done over the past 10 years or so. Some aspects of the global economy look unsustainable, particularly the pattern of global current account imbalances and the low level of real interest rates and the high degree of risk-taking, the central bank added.

'So the macroeconomic context is likely to be somewhat less benign,' it added.

Over the past 10 years, since the BoE was made independent, the UK has enjoyed a period of stability with inflation under control, steady GDP growth and well anchored inflation expectations.

The central bank said it has been able to work against the backdrop of a supportive fiscal framework, thus giving praise to Chancellor Gordon Brown's management of the UK's purse strings.

'Fiscal policy has generally been set with an eye to the long term, leaving monetary policy to manage the economy in the short to medium term,' it added.

The bank said the current monetary policy framework allows it to work in a co-ordinated way with the Treasury.

'First, the Chancellor sets the bank's objective, so there should be no conflict in the objectives of fiscal and monetary policy,' he added.

At present, the BoE is charged with keeping the annual CPI inflation rate at 2.0 pct. If the rate drops below 1.0 pct or rises above 3.0 pct, BoE governor Mervyn King will be forced to write an open letter to Chancellor Brown explaining the deviation.

'There is a clear division of roles and responsibilities between the MPC and the Treasury, with each pursuing its role in a transparent and open fashion. This promotes a close understanding between the Bank and Treasury of how the other operates, which is reinforced by close working relationships at staff level, and the presence of a Treasury observer at Monetary Policy Committee meetings,' the central bank said.

Turning to the debt burden held by Britons, the central bank said the build-up of secured debt has so far not had any significant impact on the economy.

'Repossessions remain at relatively low levels and the BoE's latest annual survey of the borrowers suggests that only one in 12 mortgages has found any difficulty keeping up mortgage payments, much less than in the early 1990s.'

The high levels of unsecured debt, however, may present problems.

The BoE's annual survey suggests that around a third of unsecured borrowers find their debt a burden.

'However, these households are typically low-income households who account for a relatively small fraction of aggregate consumption. So while excessive unsecured borrowing may represent a significant social issue, as yet it does not constitute a material macroeconomic influence,' the bank said.

At the same time, the BoE said the impact of the introduction of the national minimum wage in 1999 on unemployment rates also 'appears to have been relatively limited'.

And happy new year, Bak :)

Thanks Chocs.

No celebrations I'm afraid. Been struck down with a bad ass cold all week, brought back from a recent ski trip :-(

Afternoon - I'm tempted long but am wary that the hourly and 4 hourly indicators do not agree with me yet so will probably hold off a for a little while.

Morning - looking for a long again this morning but not sure at what price yet.

Been in since 19460 yesterday. Out for today so leaving it to run. First hurdle is 550 - it's had 3 goes at it but failed on each occasion. If it breaks through then 610 next stop. Otherwise back down to 430 - at least :(

9460 was my price yesterday mg but came out overnight - back in at 40 this morning.

Make that 4 goes - it doesn't seem to want to break through. Moved my stop up to 510 - just in case - wouldn't want to throw away my gains.