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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

chocolat - 16 Feb 2007 19:33 - 7454 of 11056

Gooey huh ;)

MightyMicro - 16 Feb 2007 23:59 - 7455 of 11056

Our friends at DailyFX have failed to provide the usual link to the Economic Release Calendar this week, so the FX Fairy has hacked in the HTML as best he can on the basis that the information is more important than the elegance of the presentation. The Fairy sends his apologies to Madame Hilary and the denizens of this fine thread but he's done his best, honest.

STORMCALLER - 17 Feb 2007 00:32 - 7456 of 11056

MM,

Damned fine show sir!, stirling effort, wot?....stand you a whisky and soda next time etc...

SC

hilary - 19 Feb 2007 08:41 - 7457 of 11056

Test

hilary - 19 Feb 2007 09:11 - 7458 of 11056

MM,

There must somehow be a way to either save or print the Excel file to an image file (JPG or GIF). I guess that must be what KL does each week.

If we could get an image, it could then be hosted (Photobucket restricts image sizes unfortunately) somewhere and hotlinked to.

hilary - 19 Feb 2007 09:14 - 7459 of 11056

PS. I would've thought that this glitch is only temporary. She probably got one of the monkeys to do it this week while she's off galavanting for the Chinese New Year.

MightyMicro - 19 Feb 2007 09:47 - 7460 of 11056

Hil, that's why I thought I'd leave it a week. Thank you for caring :)

chocolat - 19 Feb 2007 12:10 - 7461 of 11056

BoE says environment for inflation likely to become less benign UPDATE
AFX


(Updating with additional comment)

LONDON (AFX) - The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee said some of the factors that have kept inflation in check over the past 10 years may be eroding.

Cheaper imports, globalisation and increased labour supply, due partly to inward migration, have all helped dampen inflation, it said in a written submission to the the parliamentary Treasury Committee.

But the status-quo is not likely to remain. 'The environment is unlikely to be so benign in the future,' the central bank said.

'Many of the benefits of globalisation have already worked through, and the adverse impact on commodity prices of the development of China and India is now being felt,' it said.

The globalisation process over the past decade has reduced inflationary pressures and helped boost growth, providing a 'beneficial tailwind' to the work of the MPC, but these effects will only be temporary, the MPC warned.

The emergence of low-cost producers in countries such as China has led to a rise in the price of UK exports relative to that of its imports, increasing the real purchasing power of employees' wages.

'Such a terms-of-trade improvement ... allows the economy to grow a little faster for the same inflation rate, or else for inflation to fall without requiring growth to dip,' the report said.

This bonus is likely to be temporary, however, because workers' wage aspirations will gradually rise and as emerging economies begin to catch up with their developed economy counterparts.

Additionally, the labour force is unlikely to grow as rapidly as it has done over the past 10 years or so. Some aspects of the global economy look unsustainable, particularly the pattern of global current account imbalances and the low level of real interest rates and the high degree of risk-taking, the central bank added.

'So the macroeconomic context is likely to be somewhat less benign,' it added.

Over the past 10 years, since the BoE was made independent, the UK has enjoyed a period of stability with inflation under control, steady GDP growth and well anchored inflation expectations.

The central bank said it has been able to work against the backdrop of a supportive fiscal framework, thus giving praise to Chancellor Gordon Brown's management of the UK's purse strings.

'Fiscal policy has generally been set with an eye to the long term, leaving monetary policy to manage the economy in the short to medium term,' it added.

The bank said the current monetary policy framework allows it to work in a co-ordinated way with the Treasury.

'First, the Chancellor sets the bank's objective, so there should be no conflict in the objectives of fiscal and monetary policy,' he added.

At present, the BoE is charged with keeping the annual CPI inflation rate at 2.0 pct. If the rate drops below 1.0 pct or rises above 3.0 pct, BoE governor Mervyn King will be forced to write an open letter to Chancellor Brown explaining the deviation.

'There is a clear division of roles and responsibilities between the MPC and the Treasury, with each pursuing its role in a transparent and open fashion. This promotes a close understanding between the Bank and Treasury of how the other operates, which is reinforced by close working relationships at staff level, and the presence of a Treasury observer at Monetary Policy Committee meetings,' the central bank said.

Turning to the debt burden held by Britons, the central bank said the build-up of secured debt has so far not had any significant impact on the economy.

'Repossessions remain at relatively low levels and the BoE's latest annual survey of the borrowers suggests that only one in 12 mortgages has found any difficulty keeping up mortgage payments, much less than in the early 1990s.'

The high levels of unsecured debt, however, may present problems.

The BoE's annual survey suggests that around a third of unsecured borrowers find their debt a burden.

'However, these households are typically low-income households who account for a relatively small fraction of aggregate consumption. So while excessive unsecured borrowing may represent a significant social issue, as yet it does not constitute a material macroeconomic influence,' the bank said.

At the same time, the BoE said the impact of the introduction of the national minimum wage in 1999 on unemployment rates also 'appears to have been relatively limited'.

chocolat - 19 Feb 2007 12:11 - 7462 of 11056

And happy new year, Bak :)

bakko - 19 Feb 2007 12:48 - 7463 of 11056

Thanks Chocs.

No celebrations I'm afraid. Been struck down with a bad ass cold all week, brought back from a recent ski trip :-(

Harlosh - 19 Feb 2007 15:28 - 7464 of 11056

Afternoon - I'm tempted long but am wary that the hourly and 4 hourly indicators do not agree with me yet so will probably hold off a for a little while.

Harlosh - 20 Feb 2007 07:15 - 7465 of 11056

Morning - looking for a long again this morning but not sure at what price yet.

mg - 20 Feb 2007 07:37 - 7466 of 11056

Been in since 19460 yesterday. Out for today so leaving it to run. First hurdle is 550 - it's had 3 goes at it but failed on each occasion. If it breaks through then 610 next stop. Otherwise back down to 430 - at least :(

Harlosh - 20 Feb 2007 07:43 - 7467 of 11056

9460 was my price yesterday mg but came out overnight - back in at 40 this morning.

mg - 20 Feb 2007 07:50 - 7468 of 11056

Make that 4 goes - it doesn't seem to want to break through. Moved my stop up to 510 - just in case - wouldn't want to throw away my gains.

Harlosh - 20 Feb 2007 07:59 - 7469 of 11056

Bad entry for me in hindsight as I pre -empted the break.

mg - 20 Feb 2007 08:20 - 7470 of 11056

Just seen my stop taken out - kept 50 at least. I've left a long to open at 435 with a tight stop - off out now

Harlosh - 20 Feb 2007 09:38 - 7471 of 11056

Long again from 499.

hilary - 20 Feb 2007 15:00 - 7472 of 11056

[14:57 GBP/USD: Threatening 1.9550 Resistance, MPC Minutes Tomorrow] London,
February 20. Cable is currently trading just south of 1.9550 (today"s Asian
session top) as it consolidates gains from a late London intra-day low of
1.9480. A break of 1.9550 targets 1.9567 (yesterday"s peak). 1.9600 is an upper
obstacle.
This week"s key UK event risk comes in the form of tomorrow"s 09:30GMT
publication of minutes from the February 7/8 BoE MPC meeting. IFR expects the
minutes to reveal that the base rate was held at 5.25% by a 7-2 vote--although
9-0 and 6-3 forecasts have also been noted. We suspect Tim Besley and Andrew
Sentance, may have voted to raise rates by another 25bp. The MPC"s newest
members cast prior votes to hike in January, last November and last October
(they formed a minority of two in October).

hilary - 20 Feb 2007 15:01 - 7473 of 11056

My last post felt so good, I had an urge to say it twice.


Bloody internet!
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