ellio
- 15 May 2006 09:10
The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.
If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.
Strawbs
- 04 Aug 2007 10:25
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If the markets crash then they probably won't need to go much higher......
A financial meltdown is always a good way to knock consumer confidence. ;-)
Although speaking to friends over the last few weeks, I don't think there's many retail investors left in the markets this time. They seem to have learnt the lessons of recent crashes and cashed in early.......My pessimism obviously rubbed off... :-)
Strawbs.
maddoctor
- 05 Aug 2007 14:41
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NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks will fall next week, continuing a broad sell-off seen on Friday, as investors stay on high-alert for more bad news linked to dodgy home loans, credit woes, and their potential impact on the broad economy, analysts said.
"My expectations are that equities are in for another volatile week," said Mike Malone, trading analyst at Cowen & Co. "It's going to be difficult for equities to sustain any gains until the concerns in the credit markets begin to wane."
Investors will also anxiously await the meeting of the Federal Reserve on Tuesday to see whether central bankers signal growing concerns about credit markets.
skyhigh
- 06 Aug 2007 07:54
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Looks like another big fall due today...expecting another hammering on my portfolio ! It's grim isn't it !
cynic
- 06 Aug 2007 08:11
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given that there seems to have been no bad news over w/e, would not be at all surprised to see quite hefty bounce on Dow this afternoon, though sustainability is indeed questionable
Big Al
- 06 Aug 2007 20:56
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Not a bad reading of the market, cynic. ;-)
cynic
- 06 Aug 2007 21:12
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seem to have the touch at the mo, and not only called correctly, but also bought in when i got home and could monitor ...... just took profit at 13434 = 145 points .... thank you very much, says the bank manager, will help offset some of the languishing losses in the portfolio, with honourable exceptions like ICI, PRX, LEAD and SCHE!
maddoctor
- 06 Aug 2007 21:23
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and that entry my friend tells me you know a lot more about TA than you profess here
cynic
- 06 Aug 2007 21:35
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wish i did, or perhaps too much knowledge can be a hindrance ...... with Dow being so damn volatile, it is perhaps easier to make money in either direction merely by being watchful and nimble ..... for example, Dow indications about midday were +80, then fell away to about -30 when US opened ...... 13255 was a support/resistance i have been watching and noticed when i got home (and could monitor) that that had been breached and was holding so took the plunge .... that said, it was made easier by having banked a decent bit on friday night on bear tack ..... easy to be clever when you hit a lucky streak and get it right, but hubris is a dangerous thing and can sandbag you quickly if care not taken
maddoctor
- 06 Aug 2007 21:48
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well picked out anyway
cynic
- 07 Aug 2007 07:56
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no idea what today will bring ..... am very mistrustful of markets when they gyrate so dramatically and through such a wide range
BigTed
- 07 Aug 2007 10:03
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Same old story, FTSE rebounds, but the screen shows minimal gains, got caught in this correction after being away for several days a couple of weeks ago and now consider riding out the storm to be the best option...
Strawbs
- 07 Aug 2007 10:33
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cynic
- 07 Aug 2007 10:47
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excellent article; well worth reading
BigTed
- 07 Aug 2007 10:48
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I think the author should be burnt at the stake...
just kidding...
Stan
- 07 Aug 2007 11:00
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An interesting academic piece of history well explained, but as they say "past performance is no guide to the future" (or something like that).
Gave up trying to second guess the future trend after the 2003 summer turn down so tend now to react to events rather then try to predict them.
Strawbs
- 07 Aug 2007 11:18
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I think that explains the current market volatility......everyone reacting to events rather than following a slow/safe trend. High volatility I believe is another indicator of a possible market top. The final mad battle between bears and bulls I suppose.
Strawbs.
maddoctor
- 07 Aug 2007 11:28
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yer and everybody at the telegraph is up to their eyeballs in shorts!
BigTed
- 07 Aug 2007 11:32
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looking at most large company earnings reports, the majority are all good with profits generally climbing... I thought most PE's were respectable and falling, or is the point that next years earnings are going to be hit with the current rate increases...
That would lead onto another subject about where we see rates going, my broker even suggested the next move will be a quarter cut just before Christmas, so the government can raise them a quarter in new year and shout at us all for spending too much... either way i think 6% will be enough...
Stan
- 07 Aug 2007 11:43
- 764 of 1564
"everyone reacting to events rather than following a slow/safe trend".
I'm in the "slow/safe trend" camp myself, playing the waiting game until things settle down and become clearer.
cynic
- 07 Aug 2007 11:52
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i agree that rates are likely to peak at 6%, but that will not in itself support a continuing bull market ...... for starters, there are and will be all sorts of stealth tax increases which are already hitting Joe Public in UK ..... USA clearly has its own problems ...... On the other hand, the economies in China, India and Pakistan continue to grow and grow ...... However, though much of that increased GDP will be absorbed internally, any significant slowdown in USA (particularly) must have a knock-on effect.
finally, i personally do believe that a bull market can keep running until the end of time ..... if there are enough muppets of similar mind, then the stock market(s) will fall anyway, almost regardless of underlying economies