overgrowth
- 13 May 2005 16:36
Retail Decisions are
market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They
produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally,
though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers
both in the UK and US.
They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be
a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this
"forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout
2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and
Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of
millions of shares in RTD !
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Shares Magazine had
a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is
about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution".
It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.
Here's what Shares
had to say:
"Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing
credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit
and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but
also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in
your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions.
Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime.
Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump
is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities
seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains
concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already
has fantastic experience and technology.
The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that
it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer,
T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner
of Macy's and Bloomingdales.
Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business
in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low
single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."
Retail Decisions have
continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz.
fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices
and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams
from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through.
In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over
their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company
is doing.
The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software
is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success
in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is
being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real
gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.
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Fundamentalist
- 21 Mar 2006 19:32
- 747 of 1009
rampant bulls only over there boxer :-)
Another contract which appears good news but as pointed out no value attached as per usual makes it very difficult to allocate value
pachandl
- 22 Mar 2006 12:27
- 748 of 1009
Agreed, including the ADV crowd. Of course RTD are in a difficult position. They cannot give any anticipated profit figures for such deals because (i) it would reduce their negotiating leverage, (ii) potentially encourage existing clients to re-negotiate contracts, and (iii) profit is dependent upon take-up - particularly relevant to yesterday's rns. Anyway, I take comfort from the deal because it shows that cnp is still very much alive at RTD, that their technology is "cutting-edge" and reliable, and that there may be some predatory action from one of the big companies like Experian. We can always hope (preferably north of 200p)!
zscrooge
- 22 Mar 2006 19:42
- 749 of 1009
Fundamentalist - 21 Mar 2006 19:32 - 747 of 748
rampant bulls only over there boxer :-)
One or two agreed but a much fuller analysis over the last few years there than the sporadic posts here (apart from your cautious goodself). I have learnt more from that thread on cgt, mm tactics, level 2, bb machinations, SIPPS, ISAs etc than frankly the amateurish (with obvious exceptions) analysis on MAM.
Fred1new
- 22 Mar 2006 23:35
- 750 of 1009
zss, then why waste your time posting here?
zscrooge
- 23 Mar 2006 08:47
- 751 of 1009
Fred - think that came out wrong as I was just trying to defend what I think has been for the last few years an excellent thread (given a few zealots).
Like the entertainment here (SEO LOL) and drop in now and then for the politics.
Musn't fall out with someone who is left of centre -can't be that many around on these boards.
Fred1new
- 23 Mar 2006 09:59
- 752 of 1009
Zs no offence taken I am just old and grumpy. (So I am told.) By the way I am not left of centre, the rest of the world has just moved to the right.
Douggie
- 24 Mar 2006 16:50
- 753 of 1009
and so another week of optimism comes to a sad and disappointing end .... ;-/
pachandl
- 25 Mar 2006 15:37
- 754 of 1009
HL's Penny Share Prophet reiterates its buy rating on RTD in the light of results.
Fred1new
- 25 Mar 2006 16:27
- 755 of 1009
I am glad somebody agrees with me.
boxerdog
- 25 Mar 2006 18:21
- 756 of 1009
Fred."somebody agrees with me " regarding what?.Are you still of
the opinion that there is more to be made else where? If you
can see, sense light at the end of the tunnel please enlighten me.
regards BD.
Fred1new
- 26 Mar 2006 13:42
- 757 of 1009
I sold half my holdings sometime ago, but intend to hold the rest for a while. I think this company has good growth potential and a realistic price at the moment would be about 190p. later 200-220p. The potential is great but I am getting old waiting.
pachandl
- 27 Mar 2006 11:08
- 758 of 1009
There is clearly a concerted attempt by MMs to squeeze out weak holders (whether there is also a large buyer in the background would also make a difference). This may take a week or two to resolve itself before the sp consolidates and then begins to move forward. Personally, I would expect very little until we get past the end of the tax year.
daves dazzlers
- 28 Mar 2006 15:28
- 759 of 1009
Oh well thats it for me am out,,bit of a non event in total.
Goodluck all.
pachandl
- 28 Mar 2006 15:35
- 760 of 1009
DD - best of luck with your other choices. Fortunately I can afford to stay put for as long as it takes (well, one year at least), although it never ceases to amaze me how the market values companies. I am not one of those who says that the current market cap is too low - whatever value the market puts on a share is the "correct" value because it is the only one the share can be traded at - but the method of RTD's valuation is not particularly transparent to my eyes!
daves dazzlers
- 28 Mar 2006 15:58
- 761 of 1009
They say everything in the price pachandl,but what price RTD..
Its still has its fans on here , i still belive in RTD myself its just a touch to slow for me now,,onwards & upwards people..
pachandl
- 28 Mar 2006 16:18
- 762 of 1009
DD - so which of your shares are going to go up faster?
daves dazzlers
- 28 Mar 2006 16:33
- 763 of 1009
Each to there own pac,may go and top up on NCS,done me proud this last week or so,,multi bagger.No value so to speak in the company,but something brewing,for sure,,now the main money is in place,and mr crosby at the helm..
Fred1new
- 28 Mar 2006 18:05
- 764 of 1009
Pach, have a look ar VED, KGN, AHT, CHG and if you are a gambler ALG which is beginning to reverse. What the trend rate will be I am not certain.
Held the first 4 for over 3mths and the latter just recently. Intend holding these and a large (for me ) remaining holding of RTD for quite a while unless there is bad info.
pachandl
- 29 Mar 2006 13:16
- 765 of 1009
Cheers DD/Fred. Always interested to know what other holdings RTD investors have (before they sold RTD!). RTD is not exactly being heavily traded today.
Douggie
- 10 Apr 2006 16:58
- 766 of 1009
........... ;o/ .........ouch!