The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

Thanks Eric - PET are admitedly small, but a point that has been raised over on other threads is that if Iraq wants to protect itself against the big oil giants(remember or look back at records from the 1970's), they will need to build up a smaller company that can compete with the likes of Halliburton, and yet stay loyal to Iraq. PET look like the ideal company for Iraq to raise, these tenders & block 6 will go a long way to turning PET into a giant. Will it happen, who knows probably not, but whatever PET get it is going to have a huge influence on the SP. I have given up trying to work out the potential SP until we see what kind of contract they are awarded and the scope of it, if you try to work it out on the info to date, then you come up with silly figures of 5,10, 20 pounds, until we know more more, I'll stay away from speculating on the SP, I think the one thing we can say, is that we are all gonna be pretty happy if PET get 1,2 or 3 tenders, and over the moon when block 6 info starts coming in, imagine new wells dug every other week or so, that could put Cairn to shame!!!!!

All IMHO


Tokyo

Here is the post Eric, as Bahouse puts it alot better than I can, enjoy and tell us what you think....


Now the Iraqi, the Arab and the Muslim world hates the American government and, after this second Iraq war, the British governments, but not the American or British people. They make a very clear distinction between these governments and their people. Anyone who lived in the middle east can confirm this. If you need proof, just read the Observer interview 2 weeks ago with one of the leaders of the Iraqi insurgency groups. This leader says he knows the British and the American people are good people, but that he was fighting the Americans for what they have done to his country. More relevant to my argument (see below), this same fighter says he first supported the American toppling of Sadam, but turned against them when he saw the deliberate destruction of his country.

While almost all Iraqis are happy to see the back of Sadam, equally almost all Iraqis want to see the back of the Americans and their allies. They know America is in Iraq to grab the oil and not spread democracy. They know too Sadam was put in control of Iraq by the CIA. Even Prime Minister Allawi knows that, when sadam killed many communist-baathist parliamentarian like himself, he was again helped by the CIA. Allawi was lucky to have escaped to Britain 26 years ago. And much luckier to be a live after a Sadam killer left him for dead in his house in London.

They know too that America was behind Sadam invasion of Iran to stop Khomeini Islamic revolution spreading to the rest of the middle east; and the ensuing 8 years of a disastrous and senseless war, as far as the Iraqis are concerned.

They also know America encouraged Iraqis to rise up against Sadam after the 1st Gulf war only, to let Sadam exact revenge on thousands of them while the Americans sat idle nearby in the No-fly Zone. They know too, that when Sadam gazed the Iranians soldiers in Iraq Kurdish villages, killing thousands innocent Kurdish people in the process, it was America who vetoed the UN resolution condemning such barbaric acts.

They know too that the same Ramsfield who declared this last war on Iraq, is Ramsfield who flew to Iraq as Regans special envoy to reassure Sadam of Americas support and its vetoing of the said UN resolution; and to sell him more chemicals weapons in return for contracts for the likes of Halliburtons.

They know too when Sadam was running Iraq with an iron fist, the US administration said we know he is bastard but at least he is our bastard.

And the biggest crime of all the Iraqis will not forget for a very long time to come is the 12 years sanctions deliberately engineered to destroy Iraq as a state and society on behalf of Israel. 2 western directors responsible for administering the Iraq UN Food for Oil program resigned when they realised what they had been party to was genocide as they called it themdelves.

Before the sanctions, Iraq had become the most advanced and powerful country in the middle eastern after Israel and was, given its wealth, on the brink of surpassing Israel oily country versus $3 billion yearly hands out from the US country. Now you understand why Israel feared Iraq most and had as a documented state policy the destruction of Iraq since the 70s.

In 1990 the UN produced a report ranking Iraq in par with western countries and declaring it no longer a developing country. Iraq standard of living was higher than the best in the western world. As Pets investors I am sure you understand why. A country awash with oil where 8 out of 10 times you drill a hole, oil gushes out. If you are surprised why the western desert, where our cuddly pet, has the huge Block6, has remained unexplored, it is simply because the Iraqis were not in hurry. The oil they were producing was enough to give them a very comfortable life. Now they need to pump out as much oil as they can and as quickly as they can in order to rebuild their shattered country. There in comes Pet.

I am sorry if I have bored you with this and I appreciate people may have different political views. But I believe some understanding of the politics of Iraq (and the middle east in general) may help those who think pet is only about cash contracts or those who think the Americans will just grab all the oil and leave poor pet huddled in a small sandy corner in Iraq. I strongly believe PET is a big beast in the making. And here is my argument:

Now does anyone really think that a people who have suffered so much for so long from the same tormentor (the Americans), as outlined above, will be happy handing this tormentor their oil? Wouldnt they seek to exact revenge, instead ?

The Iraqis are not in a position to take revenge on America by military means. But they will do it, I can assure you, through their oil; and in this case through our Pet and other pets, too. They took revenge on western oil companies who gave them a pitiful 4% and kept to themselves 96% of the profit, by kicking them out of Iraq in 1972 and nationalised Iraqi oil resources.

Pet being Irish and having helped them during their hour of needs, the Iraqis will do their utmost to repay the favour and at the same time hit back at the Americans and their allies . Strategically speaking, it also makes sense. Why have the sole superpower controlling your oil? Wouldnt you have more independence if companies from other countries were involved, thus establishing a balance of power and sometimes using it to your advantage by playing one country against another?

Is the best way of doing that by giving your oil to the biggest oil companies from hostile countries? Or the only way to do that is help small companies from friendly countries grow into giants to serve as bulkhead against the Halliburtons who orders their country president to have a war somewhere in the glob to sell weaponry or grab oil?

I hear people say but the American went to war for oil and have put in control of Iraq their puppet regime who will hand all or most of Iraqi oil to America. First, even the puppet regime depends for its survival and the functioning of the state on the juniors Iraqi government officials, who by the way were all sacked by the Americans in the aftermath of Sadam demise because they were baathist and then..yes youve guessed it... were all brought back, including the notorious secret service El Mukhabarat, because the country just couldnt function without them. It is these junior officials who will exact their revenge on the Americans and they are doing so as I write. In fact the leader of the insurgency group interviewed by the Observer works in one of the Iraqi government ministries. He further states that there are other colleagues in other government departments providing them with vital information. Havent you heard of American trained Iraqis soldiers/police turning against them and joining the resistance to the point where only recently the American authorities dismantled a whole Iraqis military regiment because they suspected them of working for the rebellion. If it wasnt sad, it would be comic.

Now could this or that leader involved in the insurgency, be working in the Iraqi Ministry of Oil?

Granted the answer is No. However, if government officials are risking their lives fighting the American occupation in spite of all the privileges that go with the job, I am sure we can easily imagine what revenge the Iraqis Oil Ministry officials in Ireland today are taking against America as we read this post. No! I am not talking about the signing of the 1st, 2nd or even the 3rd contracts. These are already in the bag, in my view and next mid-week the ball start rolling. Didnt David Horgan say recently that Pet has no other competitor for the 3 tenders? Yet until his announcement, we were in the belief that Pet had 2 other competitors, one Turkish and the other from the UAE. The Iraqis must have dispensed with the other 2 competitors, because you cannot take your revenge on the USA/Halliburtons monsters with a small Turkish pet, a small UAE pet and a small Irish pet, even with their combined strength. You want to rear and groom a small pet so that it grows loyal to you and turn it into a big beastly beast to take your revenge on your tormentor or at least protect you from your tormentor Halliburtons monsters. Because for sure, they will never leave you alone, even if they have to cook stories such as WMD and Al Kaida link, as long as you have oil.

That is why I believe very strongly that Pet will end up with the more lucrative risk-sharing oil revenue arrangement in the not too distant future. Because the iraqis wil want to SEE A small Pet turn into a BIG BEAST for obvious reasons. We might even have some hints to this effect, once the contract(s) regarding the 3 tenders are announced.


As for those who believe that America will prevail and control the Iraqi oil using its awesome might. Why are the Iraqi oil officials in Dublin and not in New York this evening?

More to the point, Britain was the sole superpower controlling the middle east early this century- with France having only Lebanon and Syria and North Africa. Britain lost Iraq through rebellion despite its desperate attempt to hold on to the country; to the extent that even the use of chemical weapons against civilian population did not stop the Iraqis continuing the fight for independence. Britain then installed a puppet king Faisal, who the Iraqis got rid off in no time. Iraqis are very proud and tough people as well as very sophisticated. That is why they will not allow the US government get away with their oil.

I think most of what I said is summed up in David Horgan Investors will make it happen, respecting laws and local sensitivities.. (interims rns 30/09/04)

Pets lovers, WE HAVE A BIG BEAST IN THE MAKING AND SOONER THAN SOME THINK.

NB: I am sorry about this very long post. As an Arab and investor I thought a bit of a local knowledge and an investment perspective seen from local eyes, may help us understand the story unfolding in front of our eyes. And it's a bit SCARY.

WATCH OUT HALLIBURTON!!!! HERE COMES PET!

We're going to see a David & Golliath play once more!

bahouse

Eric: My figure of 90p was based on the award of cash contracts rather than risk sharing agreements - clearly the latter would cause 'heart tremors'! John

Tokyo

Thanks! Very worthwhile post. The scenario makes sense. I suspect that PET is seen as a front to a powerful consortium which is neutral in relation to Iraq history; clearly there is a Japanese link; Ireland is an excellent entree to Europe given the use of the international language of english; they are a relational type of race who generally enjoy a bit of a laugh, including at themeselves. So, if I were an Iraqi in the oil ministry, yes, PET could make a lot of sense. It seems that it is going towards a risk-sharing agreement, probably with two, rather than three, fields (recalling earlier post re delay in southern field). So thanks, again. Will enjoy a more peacful weekend. Obviously, I am altruistic, really wanting to help the Iraqis; what better way than making a lot of money yourself!

Eric

Afternoon all,
Are you and yours ok Tokyo?,
found this on iii bb,have`nt read his/her posts before(don`t think so anyway!)

I haven't read this message board for about a week. So I maybe telling this board information they already know, but I thought this might be quite useful.
I spoke to a senior member of Petrel Resources' management last weekend, and he imparted to me that he would be having discussions this week with the Iraqi Oil Ministry, in Jordan, (because Baghdad is too dangerous, but business must go on!). They have in fact been discussing it today. I spoke to a member of staff at Petrel Resources yesterday and she confirmed that the management have travelled to the middle east.
The first telephone conversation I had (with the senior member of management), lasted a long time and through the course of it, I gleaned that although he couldn't say, from his manner that it was 'almost' in the bag (to coin a bad phrase).
Previous information has said that the Oil Ministry's meetings with bidding companies would take place towards the end of this month/the beginning of next. It appears to me that Petrel Resources, are the top to the queue, read from this what you will.

I am sorry to hear that people are leaving this message board, I don't necessarily sway on the side of blind optimism, and I can understand peoples hesitancy about this share, as it is to be honest high risk. But I cannot understand why one would write more than one or two messages warning against a share, and not exchange more information than just, the Americans rule Iraq. Most of the civilised world know that, but the Americans for all their faults do hold some sense of public relations, who best to give one of the first oil contracts to than a small Irish based firm. The Irish are seen as a trustworthy nation amongst the Middle East, partly why they tried to intervene in the sad Ken Bigley affair.
It might just be seen as salt in the wounds if it were a large American or English based Oil company who were awarded it.
(The last is pure speculation which I cannot back up with fact, sorry.)
Monday morning will be very interesting.

Tokyo: Like dexter01 I do hope you are all OK in Tokyo. I know from experience that these tremors can be uncomfortable. Presumably now that your arms are OK you can at least steady yourself if you have to! Let us know how bad it is when you can?

Interesting post from iii bb. Clearly things are pretty bad in Iraq, I was reading that it costs 2,750 to hire a Taxi to take you from the airport to the 'Green Zone' combine that cost with personal safety and no wonder companies want to meet up somewhere else! With the price of Oil still set to rise (China still import less Oil than Mexico..think about that...and Chinese growth set for 10% next year), just think what the announcement of a new Oil deal will have on the value of PET..there is still of course the tricky bit of extracting and transporting the Oil, but that can wait for now. All we want is an announcement...positive of course!

John

Thanks guys - Yeah Pretty big Earthquake today, and unusually long, there were about 5 after shocks today, a little worrying as they are always saying that Tokyo is overdue a big one. It was the worst I have experienced for a while, glass and wine rack was shaking, but managed to save the alcohol, so no worries there!!!!As I live in the suburbs not in too much danger really, as it is the falling glass in Tokyo that is likely to do the most damage, I'm 10 minutes away from the center of Tokyo, so pretty much out of harms way!(fingers crossed)

Typhoons, earthquakes, not having much luck with the weather recently, will be so glad to get back for UK winter, where they will just be rain and snow to deal with. If any of you guys are up for a piss up in December, I'll try to organise something with the other BB's, for a kind of PET celebration (If it all comes off of course!!)

Dexter - Yeah I saw that post on iii, although it was longer and went into a tiny bit more detail than city whispers posts, it pretty much mirrored what he had posted earlier on advfn, what we don't know is if that PET offical had been with DH in Iraq or not, if so and only DH is left in Iraq, then it is extremly promising as DH must have been left behind to sign the contracts over the weekend, if not then the wait goes on.

Thanks all

Tokyo


p.s. nothing in the weekend papers?

Tokyo: Glad to read you are AOK, otherwise we would have lost a great PET investor and supporter before the real action gets underway!!!!!!!!

Have not been able to find any newspaper coverage about PET in today's papers (Sat) but did find an interesting article in the 'Money Secton' of the Torygraph about Cairn...with the headline///Be a wildcat - you could strike it lucky....

The gist of the article is that Cairn has drilled 22 exploration wells, 10 of which have been successful. The company estimates it has found 2bln - 5bln b of oil of which 400m to 1.25bln could be recoverable. Cairn currently has a 40% concession from the Indian Gov and wants to increase it. So lots of activity between now and April next year...drill, drill, drill...

Next to the article is a nice picture of the share price vs time...it just goes up and up and up...........

Have a great Sunday. John

Good evening, all. A new reader to MoneyAM - Investors'Room calling. Several years experience in oil-tanker shipping business, but, miserable experience with oil company share trading to date e.g. Bula & Tuskar to name but a few. Very impressed with contributions on this site, but still trying to work out some of the abbreviations / terminology (would like to become more involved as big interast in Oil E+P / Mining. Any help ? ). Thanks in advance.

Bought PET.L * 2000 shares @ 0.35 Jan 2004, and wondering if experts reading herein would buy in again early Monday morning - qty / price ???????

Another provoking post from the other side, very similiar thoughts to the one I posted here earlier in the week, glad to see most people/investors are thinking along the same lines, perhaps now only a matter of time.....wish they would hurry up, as not sure how long the fingernails have left???? -

The oil minister refused to name the other companies going for the two tenders, why....?

IMO there is no other companies running for these tenders....reason being if there was, the minister would have named them has he named PET....

However the oil minister couldn't exactly say there was no other companies running for the tenders....reason...it would be as good as saying yes pet have won the tenders....and this can't be done until there is an official announcement.....

There was also two delegations....Iraqi and Jordanian...reason....the block 6 western desert....IMO this will be a joint venture including the Jordanians
It dosnt add up going to Jordan because its to dangerous in iraq.....

"We continue to drive forward our Iraqi western desert exploration work. Much of the seismic and well core data was destroyed during the 2003 war. Accordingly, we concluded a joint venture with the Jordanian government to take new geological samples on the western side of the basin. Existing Jordanian well
cores and chippings have been shared with us. Petrel has conducted fission-track and other state of the art techniques to enhance our knowledge. We will commence work on the ground in Block 6 in the Western Desert as soon as it is legally and practically feasible."

Block 6 is worth 30% of all oil uptake to PET....PET have not commented much about block 6......reason... keep the majors out of the way until PET get themselves established within Iraq

Could we see PET active in Jordan in the near future....?

guys...there was an interesting article on iraqenergy.com yesterday

It referred to Iraq wanting to get the oil gushing as soon as possible and several Oil Majors are sniffing. Initially I thought it was bad news for PET until I read further and found
1. the Iraq Oil Ministry said that it would be a year at least before any tenders could be submitted.
2.They refer to different fields
3.And finally I thought even more reasons to hold PET as these majors may even want to buy in.

As PET is primarily an exlorer, for all we know there could even be something rumbling along in the background that saitisfies the critics, and determines should PET win contracts they would later downstream sell to a major who may be better equipped to get oil out. This is without prejudice and is only another angle, but whichever angle you come from, PET is a logical choice for the Iraqis at present, whereas the majors are not.

Could it be that the other companys tending do not wish to be named.

Morning everyone.

Found this on a website.


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Petrel continues talks on Iraqi oil

24/10/04 00:00

By Eamon Quinn
Petrel Resources, the Irish oil explorer, was this weekend continuing talks with senior officials of the Iraqi oil ministry about contracts to restore the country's oil facilities.

David Horgan, managing director of the AIM-listed company, said the ministry had sent 22 officials to meet with Petrel in Jordan and that progress had been made in the talks.

Petrel has bid on two contracts to refurbish and develop oil installations around Tikrit, the hometown of Saddam Hussein, and in Kirkuk, in the north-east of the country.

Speaking from Jordan, Horgan told The Sunday Business Post that he had been advised against hosting the talks in Baghdad because of the mounting violence in the Iraqi capital.





Horgan, who has been a frequent traveller to Baghdad for the Irish oil company in the past, expected to travel there again later this year if Petrel succeeded in winning the contracts.

"Negotiations are continuing. It is not a done deal," he said. The Iraqi officials, who had made huge progress in streamlining the bidding process, are expected to make a decision on the bids next month.

Shares in Petrel have soared 368 per cent this year amid hopes that the Irish company is well placed to help Iraq to restore oil pipelines and facilities in existing oil fields.

The shares were trading on Friday at 112.5 pence, down from an all-time high of 133 pence, which hit earlier this month. Iraqi oil officials had visited Ireland for talks with senior Petrel managers in recent weeks.

http://www.sbpost.ie/web/DocumentView/did-904625-pageUrl--2FThe-Newspaper-2FSundays-Paper-2FThe-Market.asp


Regards,

wilbs

Petrel continues talks on Iraqi oil

24/10/04 00:00

By Eamon Quinn
Petrel Resources, the Irish oil explorer, was this weekend continuing talks with senior officials of the Iraqi oil ministry about contracts to restore the country's oil facilities.

David Horgan, managing director of the AIM-listed company, said the ministry had sent 22 officials to meet with Petrel in Jordan and that progress had been made in the talks.

Petrel has bid on two contracts to refurbish and develop oil installations around Tikrit, the hometown of Saddam Hussein, and in Kirkuk, in the north-east of the country.

Speaking from Jordan, Horgan told The Sunday Business Post that he had been advised against hosting the talks in Baghdad because of the mounting violence in the Iraqi capital.

SNAP!!

Snap again, this is the text people would be scouring through the Sunday papers for, really doesn't give any new information and a bit for each side really, the de-rampers are gonna "It's not a done deal" equals that PET are not gonna get the contract, and the more positive amongst us, are gonna say, "What else can Horgan say to a reporter?", If he says yes we are actually the only ones here, and contracts look like they will be signed next week, he'll be up infront of a commission for giving out insider info, take this info as you will -

"David Horgan, managing director of the AIM-listed company, said the ministry had sent 22 officials to meet with Petrel in Jordan and that progress had been made in the talks."

For those thinking that the major oil companies could take away the business from PET, just remember they are not even in this tender process, what they are going for is completly different and to quote the reuters article "more than a year away!"

from the article - "We have already given them some data. The process of exchanging information and deciding on the best offers could take a year, a senior oil official told Reuters."

full article here - http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/business/2004/October/business_October460.xml&section=business

I don't think 22 oil officals would be sent to Jordan, just to tell PET - "Sorry no contract for you", the quote of progress has been made in the talks, signifies something good is going on, perhaps on one tender will be awarded, but hey that is still great!!!


http://www.sbpost.ie/web/DocumentView/did-904625-pageUrl--2FThe-Newspaper-2FSundays-Paper-2FThe-Market.asp

Petrel continues talks on Iraqi oil

24/10/04 00:00

By Eamon Quinn
Petrel Resources, the Irish oil explorer, was this weekend continuing talks with senior officials of the Iraqi oil ministry about contracts to restore the country's oil facilities.

David Horgan, managing director of the AIM-listed company, said the ministry had sent 22 officials to meet with Petrel in Jordan and that progress had been made in the talks.

Petrel has bid on two contracts to refurbish and develop oil installations around Tikrit, the hometown of Saddam Hussein, and in Kirkuk, in the north-east of the country.

Speaking from Jordan, Horgan told The Sunday Business Post that he had been advised against hosting the talks in Baghdad because of the mounting violence in the Iraqi capital.

Horgan, who has been a frequent traveller to Baghdad for the Irish oil company in the past, expected to travel there again later this year if Petrel succeeded in winning the contracts.

"Negotiations are continuing. It is not a done deal," he said. The Iraqi officials, who had made huge progress in streamlining the bidding process, are expected to make a decision on the bids next month.

Shares in Petrel have soared 368 per cent this year amid hopes that the Irish company is well placed to help Iraq to restore oil pipelines and facilities in existing oil fields.

The shares were trading on Friday at 112.5 pence, down from an all-time high of 133 pence, which hit earlier this month. Iraqi oil officials had visited Ireland for talks with senior Petrel managers in recent weeks.

Hooray! Its a trinity - the same post three times; so clearly the divine will! I particularly liked: "The Iraqi officials had made huge progress in stramlining the bidding process". Shorthand for its down to them and us, they know what they want and its just what we would like to give them. I suspect that any agreement would need to go above the ministry so just a little patience for a few days. Do you see it that way, Tokyo - glad your sound of limb and, obviously, also of mind!

Eric

Could be another week or so, but we have waited this long, so what is a little longer (for those with no finger nails left, time to invest in a pack of gum!) The article quoted DH as saying November, which is of course next week, but thinking back to the hand over of power, that happened a few days early.......I for one will still be checking everyday for an RNS just in case.

Quote
------
what we don't know is if that PET offical had been with DH in Iraq or not, if so and only DH is left in Iraq, then it is extremly promising as DH must have been left behind to sign the contracts over the weekend, if not then the wait goes on.

Thanks all

Tokyo
-------
Surely contracts like this require more than one persons signature on the dotted line