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Dubious sell-off     

ellio - 15 May 2006 09:10

The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

skyhigh - 06 Aug 2007 07:54 - 748 of 1564

Looks like another big fall due today...expecting another hammering on my portfolio ! It's grim isn't it !

cynic - 06 Aug 2007 08:11 - 749 of 1564

given that there seems to have been no bad news over w/e, would not be at all surprised to see quite hefty bounce on Dow this afternoon, though sustainability is indeed questionable

Big Al - 06 Aug 2007 20:56 - 750 of 1564

Not a bad reading of the market, cynic. ;-)

cynic - 06 Aug 2007 21:12 - 751 of 1564

seem to have the touch at the mo, and not only called correctly, but also bought in when i got home and could monitor ...... just took profit at 13434 = 145 points .... thank you very much, says the bank manager, will help offset some of the languishing losses in the portfolio, with honourable exceptions like ICI, PRX, LEAD and SCHE!

maddoctor - 06 Aug 2007 21:23 - 752 of 1564

and that entry my friend tells me you know a lot more about TA than you profess here

cynic - 06 Aug 2007 21:35 - 753 of 1564

wish i did, or perhaps too much knowledge can be a hindrance ...... with Dow being so damn volatile, it is perhaps easier to make money in either direction merely by being watchful and nimble ..... for example, Dow indications about midday were +80, then fell away to about -30 when US opened ...... 13255 was a support/resistance i have been watching and noticed when i got home (and could monitor) that that had been breached and was holding so took the plunge .... that said, it was made easier by having banked a decent bit on friday night on bear tack ..... easy to be clever when you hit a lucky streak and get it right, but hubris is a dangerous thing and can sandbag you quickly if care not taken

maddoctor - 06 Aug 2007 21:48 - 754 of 1564

well picked out anyway

cynic - 07 Aug 2007 07:56 - 755 of 1564

no idea what today will bring ..... am very mistrustful of markets when they gyrate so dramatically and through such a wide range

BigTed - 07 Aug 2007 10:03 - 756 of 1564

Same old story, FTSE rebounds, but the screen shows minimal gains, got caught in this correction after being away for several days a couple of weeks ago and now consider riding out the storm to be the best option...

Strawbs - 07 Aug 2007 10:33 - 757 of 1564

Bear market already? Telegraph Article: History says bear market may have begun

Strawbs

cynic - 07 Aug 2007 10:47 - 758 of 1564

excellent article; well worth reading

BigTed - 07 Aug 2007 10:48 - 759 of 1564

I think the author should be burnt at the stake...
just kidding...

Stan - 07 Aug 2007 11:00 - 760 of 1564

An interesting academic piece of history well explained, but as they say "past performance is no guide to the future" (or something like that).

Gave up trying to second guess the future trend after the 2003 summer turn down so tend now to react to events rather then try to predict them.


Strawbs - 07 Aug 2007 11:18 - 761 of 1564

I think that explains the current market volatility......everyone reacting to events rather than following a slow/safe trend. High volatility I believe is another indicator of a possible market top. The final mad battle between bears and bulls I suppose.

Strawbs.

maddoctor - 07 Aug 2007 11:28 - 762 of 1564

yer and everybody at the telegraph is up to their eyeballs in shorts!

BigTed - 07 Aug 2007 11:32 - 763 of 1564

looking at most large company earnings reports, the majority are all good with profits generally climbing... I thought most PE's were respectable and falling, or is the point that next years earnings are going to be hit with the current rate increases...
That would lead onto another subject about where we see rates going, my broker even suggested the next move will be a quarter cut just before Christmas, so the government can raise them a quarter in new year and shout at us all for spending too much... either way i think 6% will be enough...

Stan - 07 Aug 2007 11:43 - 764 of 1564

"everyone reacting to events rather than following a slow/safe trend".

I'm in the "slow/safe trend" camp myself, playing the waiting game until things settle down and become clearer.

cynic - 07 Aug 2007 11:52 - 765 of 1564

i agree that rates are likely to peak at 6%, but that will not in itself support a continuing bull market ...... for starters, there are and will be all sorts of stealth tax increases which are already hitting Joe Public in UK ..... USA clearly has its own problems ...... On the other hand, the economies in China, India and Pakistan continue to grow and grow ...... However, though much of that increased GDP will be absorbed internally, any significant slowdown in USA (particularly) must have a knock-on effect.

finally, i personally do believe that a bull market can keep running until the end of time ..... if there are enough muppets of similar mind, then the stock market(s) will fall anyway, almost regardless of underlying economies

BigTed - 07 Aug 2007 11:53 - 766 of 1564

Opinions wanted....
so if the all-share index doesn't hold its lower support line and falls through by 10%, lets hear some predictions on the sp of some (quality co's) ie HAWK or LEAD?
both companies still doing the same job they did 1 month ago before the volitility, but what would happen???

cynic - 07 Aug 2007 12:02 - 767 of 1564

they would both tumble ...... you really cannot label either HAWK or LEAD as quality companies (i hold both) ...... share prices are driven by sentiment (aka fear and greed) and not true logic especially in times of panic
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