Trading statement today - not good and shares have halved - just starting a thread in case anyone is interested in looking for the dcb ....

Currently 19p to buy - not thinking of buying at this time but just started tracking



ains


last bought 25/02 @ 12.5 last sold 26/02 for 10% gain

from the Telegraph

Traders spent yesterday speculating which companies would fall out of the FTSE 100 when it is reshuffled on March 12.

Hilary Cook, director of investment strategy at Barclays Private Clients, said troubled engineering group Invensys, which last night had a market cap of about 440m, was "pretty much certain" to fall out of the list of leading blue-chip shares at the quarterly update.


Fears that Invensys may breach its banking covenants were behind the shares' tumble yesterday. Under the covenants, interest payments must be covered 3.5 times by earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation.

Some analysts believe that while the company will comfortably meet that requirement this year, it will come close to testing those levels in 2004.

They said Invensys has some breathing space as it has no debt payable before June 2004 but with ratings agency Standard & Poor's placing its rating on negative outlook, any further deterioration in trading could be critical. Invensys fell 2 to 12.5p on heavy volumes.

However, a spokesman for Invensys said: "You would have to put on a pretty apocalyptic projection for us to breach the covenants." He said interest was currently covered 5.3 times and that disposals would reduce interest charges next year.

There we go ..... first talk of a potential bid


TIMES
Invensys showed no signs of reversing its post-profit- warning slide, 2p lower to 12p, valuing its equity at just 438 million. Although it is saddled with 1.6 billion of debt, some analysts believe it is now at a level where the likes of GE and Honeywell of the US, or Schneider of France, may consider a break-up approach.

Heading the risers charts :-)) ..... plus 10%




ains

Will cash my profits ..... 2nd time since thread started ..... will look for another entry another day



ains :-))

reuters

Battered engineering group Invensys was top FTSE 100 gainer, bouncing 10 percent to 14p after investment bank CSFB raised its rating to "neutral" from "underperform".

Bank your profit quick and buy a teddy bear to cuddle.

teddy

good morning.......had to get an upgrade to stop it going down the sewer....which is holsing them up but for how long?.....are moody's still stalking them?.....all the best

this is a st trading thread rather than a pension plan but think it was bouncing regardless of the upgrade


ains

02/26 11:08
Invensys May Sell More Assets to Protect Bank Agreements
By Andrew Noel


London, Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Invensys Plc, a U.K. electronics and engineering company built through $2.5 billion of takeovers, may sell parts of its business to avoid breaking bank covenants.

The disposal of units spanning rail-signaling, wind power and power supply products is just one of a range of options the company is considering if financial results don't improve later this year, Invensys director Victoria Scarth said. Scarth declined to discuss other options under consideration.

``We've been reviewing the tactics within our strategy and what will be required under a number of scenarios since the end of 2002 so we're on the case,'' Scarth said in a telephone interview. ``We wouldn't hesitate and we will do what is necessary so we do not break our covenants.''

Invensys expects to ``comfortably'' exceed loan conditions at the next test at the end of March, though a similar review in September may be more difficult, analysts said. Chief Executive Officer Rick Haythornthwaite has already sold 1.8 billion pounds' ($2.8 billion) worth of businesses to halve debt. Still, second- half profit may still fall short of analysts' forecasts, the company has said.

Teddy is right. Don't catch a falling knife.

wise teddy

tracking for another bite at the cherry or is it a prune :-))


LONDON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Shares in British engineering firm Invensys ISYS.L rose on Wednesday, buoyed by speculation that a rival firm could launch a bid to break up the company as it fights to cope with falling sales, dealers said.

By 1157 GMT the stock was up four percent at 13 pence, bucking a weak wider market trend. The shares have lost over 60 percent in the last two weeks, hurt by deepening worries about its performance and persistent talk it was in danger of breaching its banking agreements.

Invensys told Reuters it was "clear and unequivocal" that it would not break its banking covenants, however.

"We are fully appraised of the possibilities on the upside and the downside at the moment and we have a number of options that mean we are just not going to let that happen. That is just clear and unequivocal," spokeswoman Victoria Scarth said.

But dealers said shares in Invensys, which makes controls and automation equipment for factories, offices and homes, had got down to a level which could draw out a bidder.

"The company is either going to go bust, or it will attract a break-up," said one dealer.

"At this level it's likely to attract a break-up," the dealer said, adding such a bid was likely to come from a U.S.-based rival firm.

Invensys's Scarth declined to comment on the talk, but said the speculation was "a natural consequence of a market that is pretty volatile and our share price which is weak."


ANALYSTS RAISE BID HOPES

Investment bank Credit Suisse First Boston has raised its rating on the stock to "neutral" from "underperform", but cut its share price target to 25 pence from 32p.

"Although we continue to believe that Invensys is losing market share and will miss its margin targets, overriding these concerns is our belief that Invensys is unlikely to remain as an independent plc in the long term," said CSFB in a note.

"If Invensys is broken up, we see a `break-up' valuation of 34p."

The Financial Times reported on Wednesday that Invensys is considering more disposals.

Hilary Cook, investment director at Barclays Private Clients said Invensys had some businesses that would be attractive to the likes of Siemens SIEGn.DE and General Electric GE.N .

"Do they (Siemens and GE) want to risk a big bid, a potentially hostile bid, at this stage in their business cycle when they can probably pick up the customers anyway?" said Cook.

Im in this one big time for a big time rise tomorrow.

February 27, 2003

Stock Markets by Nick Hasell TIMES

Break-up hopes help Invensys to halt slide



HOPES of further disposals and a mooted break-up valuation of nearly three times its current share price enabled Invensys to halt its steep slide.

Shares in the industrial automation and controls closed at 13p on Tuesday, against the 52p at which they traded at the start of the month, before fears of a profit warning disastrously fulfilled on February 14 began to take hold.

Although Invensys has reassured that its banking covenants are not under threat, followers took heart from reports yesterday that the company, which only completed a 1.8 billion disposal programme last year, may consider a further round of sales to shore up its finances.

Credit Suisse First Boston, which under Dan Manor, its now-departed engineering analysts, accurately predicted this months warning, also helped sentiment by upgrading its recommendation from underperform to neutral.

The Swiss broker suggests that Invensys continues to lose market share and may miss even its reduced margin targets, but places greater emphasis on a likely break-up of the company, on which it puts a 34p-a-share valuation. CSFB believes its production management business, which it values at 810 million, could draw interest from the likes of Siemens and GE, which are keen to expand in process automation, while parts of its energy management division, on which it places a 2 billion price tag, could be picked off by private equity players such as KKR. Schneider of France is also seen as a possible buyer of its power systems arm. With that view taking hold, Invensys added p to 13p.

upgraded by Credit Suisse First Boston and a fresh press report on its strategy going forward, traders said.

In an early note, CSFB raised its rating to 'neutral' from 'underperform', saying in the long-term Invensys is likely to be broken up and at current levels the risk reward ratio is looking attractive. The broker set a break-up value of 34 pence, but cut its target to 25 pence from 32, warning that Invensys is losing market share and will undershoot its margin targets.

CSFB sliced its second half forecasts on Invensys to reflect the poor economic outlook, geopolitical concerns and its own belief that efficiency gains were just 30m, it said. It has cut its forecast for second half 2003 core EBITA to 111m from 145m. Turning to the full year 2004, it has lowered its margin forecast to 6.6% from 8.2 pct, and dropped its EPS forecast to 1.19 pence from 2.8 pence. On its 2004 forecasts, it noted that Invensys trades at 13.4 times projected earnings and 0.65 times EV/sales. And just this morning, the Financial Times reported that Invensys is considering a fresh disposal programme if growing pension liabilities and collapsing sales combine to lead it to break its banking covenants.

The latest fear is that the trading performance and an estimated pensions deficit of 400m will mean Invensys breaks agreements designed to secure 1.5 bln stg of remaining debt, the newspaper said. Although Invensys insisted in its Feb 14 trading statement -- in which it warned on profits -- that this would not happen, it has since emerged that the company's contingency plan involves further large disposals, the article added.

heavy volumes again and up nearly 10% intraday - leading the FTSE100 risers

Still ticking up and heading the top 100 risers intraday - plus 15.28% @ 15p


ains

Thu 27 Feb 2003


LONDON (SHARECAST) - The electronic & electrical equiptment sector was helped along by Invensys which was boosted by news that a rival group could make a bid to break up the company as it battles against falling sales.

Top of the ftse100 risers board again @ plus 7.27% intraday


Fri 28 Feb 2003


LONDON (SHARECAST) - Credit Suisse First Boston has raised engineer Invensys to neutral from underperform, but cut its price target to 25p from 32p.

Not in these at this time


(AFX-Focus) 2003-03-10 18:29 GMT: Invensys long-term ratings cut to BB+ from BBB- by S&P
LONDON (AFX) - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said it lowered its long-term corporate credit and senior unsecured debt ratings on Invensys PLC to BB+ from BBB- after an initial review, and kept them on CreditWatch with negative implications, where they were placed on Feb 14 after a profit warning.
"The downgrade reflects the fact that Invensys' results for the year to March 31, 2003, are likely to be below the levels expected for the previous ratings on the group, and that, in the medium term, results are likely to remain depressed," said S&P credit analyst Leigh Bailey.

"There is also concern that Invensys' business profile and market position may have deteriorated, given the financial pressures faced by the group and its vulnerability to challenges in its markets from better capitalized competitors. Overall, Invensys' credit profile is no longer in line with an investment-grade rating."

Invensys said on Feb 14 that second-half 2002 core operating profits could be as much as 25 pct less than those of the first half. As a result, its credit measures for the full year 2002 are likely to fall below previously expected levels, which were already weak for the ratings.

The ratings on Invensys had previously factored in the expectation that trading would not decline overall in the second half of 2002 and that credit measures would improve over the next 18 months to levels in line with an investment-grade rating.

Invensys' business profile is likely to have weakened in recent months, as other major global players appear to have gained market share, particularly in the process and automation segments, S&P said.

The ratings on Invensys remain on CreditWatch with negative implications, indicating that they could fall further. As part of the CreditWatch review, S&P will assess whether the group's rated bonds should remain at the same rating level as the long-term corporate credit rating.

jsa/shw

sensible !

teddy