cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
ptholden
- 24 Nov 2011 19:01
- 7538 of 21973
Not so long ago I was quite Bullish overall, I could see Cable continuing its upward trend and the DOW / FTSE doing likewise.
What a difference a few weeks makes :(
I've noticed that the EUR/USD cross has been in a long term downward channel since July 2008 and is now well into the next downward leg (the third). It's quite an easy channel to spot and also symmetrical in time and price. If the price movement follows previous performance, the pair could hit 1.15 very early next year (2000 pips in three months?).
Naturally, equities will spiral downwards in the same manner and I think we'd be quite lucky to see a low on the DOW of just 10,600 and I've only picked that number as the last major correction. I wonder if the 2008 sub prime low of 7000 ish could be re-visited?
As always just ruminating about the general state of affairs, but for sure it would appear that the enormous levels of debt worldwide have not yet played out in respect of banks, financial institutions, even countries going to the wall.
skinny
- 25 Nov 2011 09:11
- 7539 of 21973
I think the last time we had 9 consecutive down days (before now) was January 2003 - I'm not sure when/if we had 10 - maybe today!
HARRYCAT
- 25 Nov 2011 09:14
- 7540 of 21973
So, the only way is up now then?
skinny
- 25 Nov 2011 09:16
- 7541 of 21973
I wouldn't be surprised to see "those crazy yanks" rally later - probably after we close!
cynic
- 25 Nov 2011 09:20
- 7542 of 21973
there has to a rally eventually, but be prepared to sell into it before everyone else does
HARRYCAT
- 25 Nov 2011 09:22
- 7543 of 21973
.
skinny
- 25 Nov 2011 09:25
- 7544 of 21973
Obviously affected by many factors, weighting etc - but still quite a contrast.
On edit :- FTSE (blue) v DOW (black).
cynic
- 25 Nov 2011 09:49
- 7545 of 21973
black is what? dow?
skinny
- 25 Nov 2011 09:51
- 7546 of 21973
cynic - yes its annoying that MAM chart software doesn't annotate as such - now updated.
On edit - actually it does - if you look carefully :-)
Chris Carson
- 25 Nov 2011 10:58
- 7547 of 21973
Dollar Index looking strong, scalped a few short on UKX, but as you say skinny those crazy yanks back in action today so who knows :O)
tyketto
- 25 Nov 2011 11:14
- 7548 of 21973
Italian bond sale this AM. 7.814%.
Edit BBC news.
skinny
- 25 Nov 2011 11:34
- 7549 of 21973
Here is the link -
Italy forced to pay record interest rates at auction
Italy has been forced to pay record interest rates in a 10bn euro ($13bn; 9bn) auction of treasury bills.
The rate of interest for the new debts due to be repaid in six months was 6.504%, compared with 3.535% in the last comparable sale on 26 October.
The rate for two-year borrowing was 7.814%, up from 4.628% last time.
The Bank of Italy stressed that demand for the bonds had been high, with demand for the debts outstripping supply by 50%.
jonuk76
- 25 Nov 2011 11:38
- 7550 of 21973
Better rate than you'd get at the bank - if you trust they won't default in the next couple of years!
skinny
- 25 Nov 2011 11:41
- 7551 of 21973
Jon - I was just thinking along similar lines - is the "over subscription" a combination of the rate on offer and perception that there may be light at the end of the tunnel - or maybe I'm clutching at straws or some similar metaphor !
jonuk76
- 25 Nov 2011 11:54
- 7552 of 21973
Must admit I'm not au fait with the workings of bond auctions. My guess would be that over subscription does suggest there was a strong demand for the bonds at that rate (perhaps for those reasons). In contrast to the German auction earlier in the week where they failed to find buyers at 2-ish percent.
cynic
- 25 Nov 2011 13:38
- 7554 of 21973
is that custer's mob?
skinny
- 25 Nov 2011 13:40
- 7555 of 21973
"those crazy yanks" - poetic license!
ptholden
- 25 Nov 2011 14:05
- 7556 of 21973
If DOW can clear 11140 and then 11160 might be in for a blue day. maybe, perhaps, possibly..............................anyone want to bet on it??
skinny
- 25 Nov 2011 14:08
- 7557 of 21973
I have :-)