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Technical Analysis (TA)     

ptholden - 09 Jul 2007 23:14

I often find all manner of reference to Technical Analysis whilst reading threads, questioning certain elements, asking for advice on indicators and also requesting advice on a stock and whether it's a good time to buy, sell, hold or remain indifferent. I am the first to admit that my own TA is still in its infancy, but I do spend time on expanding my knowledge (hopefully in the right direction!).

Rather than having to ask a TA question on a particular thread, perhaps this thread could be used as a forum for TA queries and become a knowledge base. Just a thought, if there is little or no interest, the thread will sink without trace and that will be the end of that. I will personally add a few snippets to help those with less knowledge (if that's possible) to keep things rolling. There is a danger that the thread will receive countless requests for opinions on a variety of stocks and there is only so much I can do alone, therefore I would more than welcome input from other posters, no matter how rudimentary they believe their own knowledge to be, hopefully some real experts will take the time to contribute.

cynic - 13 Jul 2007 08:32 - 76 of 504

TRIGGER - enough! ...... i totally agree that 10B is very very annoying, but there is the simple expedient of the "squelch button" if you wish to avoid him

beemer2 - 13 Jul 2007 08:36 - 77 of 504

Trigger is right...AND IAN SHOULD BAN HIM

cynic - 13 Jul 2007 08:36 - 78 of 504

TAN - tend to agree with you PT ...... certainly time for this share to take a healthy breather, but i suspect i shall just hold rather than sell with the hope of buying back cheaper, which is what i successfulyy did several weeks back

ptholden - 13 Jul 2007 09:21 - 79 of 504

Good morning Richard, rather disappointed that the COH 'debate' has moved here now, but probably my own fault.

SCHE is now at my proposed short level, it really should come off from here. Best keep an eye on it, the theory says it must, but I guess it aint always right.

TAN having another go at 200p, will it make it this time?

pth

ptholden - 13 Jul 2007 09:41 - 80 of 504

Have been taking a look at the SCHE trades for the morning. Although most are reported as Buys, nearly all are AT trades at the Offer price. This would suggest a couple of things; SCHE is having the arse shorted off it or investors are so keen to get in that they are buying at the Offer through the book rather than the Bid, although the spread is so small it probably doesn't make a huge difference.

cynic - 13 Jul 2007 09:42 - 81 of 504

watching both very carefully.

not sure if Ian should ban 10B ..... the guy is a serious pain and badly clutters up the boards, not only by being repetitive, but also exceedingly verbose, but rarely personally abusive ...... he can be avoided via "squelch" but his posts will still continue to clutter.

ptholden - 13 Jul 2007 09:46 - 82 of 504

I see Adie has now copied and pasted one of his posts onto the WNG thread, 10B really doesn't need any help in cluttering up any more threads, good grief, where will it all end?

SCHE has bounced off my line, is that it or is there more life yet to come?

cynic - 13 Jul 2007 10:11 - 83 of 504

SCHE - seemingly sp has just poked up through 20 dma, which I would rather we had on this site instead of 25 ..... in fact, sp is performing as it has always done historically(!) and as i mentioned before - i.e. after a dip, sp has always to date recovered quickly and continued its upward trend ...... perhaps from a (your!) chart point of view, this will be the exception proving the rule

more generally, "my man" reckons FTSE has a little way to run to reach it's initial target of 6735, but if Dow continues strong, the that target could easily be breached.

fyi, Dow target is 14400, though obviously there will be corrections en route

maggiebt4 - 13 Jul 2007 11:26 - 84 of 504

Re my post 64 on EMG no need to confirm my thoughts as sp has gone up another 14 at min so must have been a buy signal would appreciate thoughts on sell signal if anyone has the time html>

maggiebt4 - 13 Jul 2007 11:29 - 85 of 504

OOps sorry thought I'd learned how to paste chart. Back to the drawing board

cynic - 13 Jul 2007 11:36 - 86 of 504

DOO .... good profit take of mine so far ..... PT - now your chart gets interesting as rsi is sitting smack on 70

SCHE - PT - per current sp, hope you did not short (567 bid) ..... at what juncture does your chart need to "reconsider"?

ptholden - 13 Jul 2007 11:55 - 87 of 504

Richard, no I haven't shorted, was watching L2 earlier and SCHE certainly wasn't showing any signs of wanting to come off. Just gonna look at the chart now and see what's what :)

BigTed - 13 Jul 2007 11:55 - 88 of 504

Rich... lol, this thread is interesting, will you pair take a look at HAWK... are the shorters out in force?, knew i should have waited, fed up with stopping stuff though...

ptholden - 13 Jul 2007 12:06 - 89 of 504

Looks like SCHE has pushed through my shallower channel (pink jobbie) which I thought might provide some resistance and has bounced off the next trendline at around 575 (blue jobbie). So I think a close above 575 ish is certainly time to 'reconsider'. Will have to wait until the close to see where it ends up and I can then take a look at both the MACD and RSI, my feeling is that this is the last oomph before coming off. By rights it should be, the MACD divergence is screaming SELL all on its own :S

Nice to see we got DOO right thus far.

pth

ptholden - 13 Jul 2007 12:10 - 90 of 504

Also noticed that following my words of caution last night WNG is retracing, TAN is struggling with 200p, SOLA has a bit of life, COH is continuing its fall and CSR is still making strides in the right direction. Perhaps I should buy or sell some of this stuff? Seem to be making the right calls generally :))

pth

ptholden - 13 Jul 2007 12:15 - 91 of 504

A word of caution, just because the chart indicates or even confirms a sell or buy signal, do not slavishly enter a trade on that premise alone. I refer to SCHE today which has surprised me a little by scooting through my short level, but I didn't open a trade by sticking to my guns, I watched the SP action and will now wait.

pth

cynic - 13 Jul 2007 12:16 - 92 of 504

for what it is worth the HAWK chart is below .... however, this is such a new float that it is all bit meaningless ..... i think PT wouldsuggest that there is further to fall on the minimal info we have, but for myself, shall keep holding

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=HAWK&S

ptholden - 13 Jul 2007 12:49 - 93 of 504

<a href=Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

Not really a lot to go on in trendline world, I have drawn the main from admission (more or less) so worst case scenario is support at 32p, if it tanks, which I doubt it will. So, trying to judge the rate of fall, I would suggest a 35p support level.

In cases like this where a rapid move in the price action takes place, TA officionados often take one of two approaches or a combination of both. Clearly the SP will retrace at some point, but when it starts where will it stop? There is the popular 50% rule, ie, the SP will retrace 50% of the last move; in this case this is equal to 39p. The other approach is 33% and 67% retracement of the last move, the 67% level is absolutely critical, if it does more than 67% it is more or less assured that a full 100% retracement will take place. Well, the 33% has already gone (44p), so 39p (50%) is the next level to look for and then 67% which spookily enough is at 35p!!

Incidentally you may be aware that these percentage levels are derived from the Fibonacci numbers sequence (made famous by Dan Brown's Da Vinci Code) which forms the basis of Dow Theory and Elliot Wave Theory.

In summary then I don't see any reason to buy at the moment, look for support at 39p and then 35p.

pth

maggiebt4 - 13 Jul 2007 13:36 - 94 of 504

Would somebody please look at emg for me Has passed last high and is still below 70 on RSI so I think it has a bit more to go would appreciate your input

ptholden - 13 Jul 2007 14:36 - 95 of 504

Here you go Maggie, EMG

<a href=Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

I don't know if you are trading EMG or simply investing, it may make a difference to your strategy.

Please note that today's price action is not included, but I will update later.

As you can see from the chart EMG is chugging along in a nice bullish channel, the mid line of which I have also drawn. It certainly seems to prefer the lower half of the channel, occasionally popping out to the upper half. Both the MACD and RSI are showing bearish divergence, which would seem to indicate that the latest move is coming to an end. Today's rise certainly means it is nudging the mid channel trendline (resistance) and the RSI must be close to its own resistance line also. I would certainly keep an eye out for any weakness now and perhaps take profits as any retracement could take the SP back to trendline support at 575p. Incidentally the 635p-640p level is also an all time high resistance level, coincidental with the rising trendline resistance, perhaps another reason to take profits at the moment. No-one ever went bust taking a profit :)

pth
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