Home | Log In | Register | Our Services | My Account | Contact | Help |
We last talked about Tullow (TLW) in public in March last year when we'd speculated about weakness to 268p, with secondary 79p if the share managed below such a level. Visually, it appears 115p was as close as the price intended to our 79p and, hopefully, this indicates some strength. Better still, the share has recently managed to better the blue line on the chart, which, from our perspective, totally trashes our argument for a ridiculous 79p bottom.
Don't get us wrong, we're not oozing confidence about price recovery, but the share has moved from "going down" to "not going down" territory. Additionally, gymnastics against Brent's price, which we cover below, are liable to wreak havoc against oil sector shares.
For now, we shall pretend confidence against Tullow unless it manages to close a session below 230p. This would be a bad thing, taking the share price below the blue line and into a position where negative market sentiment can produce enhanced weakness.
But from a chart perspective alone, closure now above 280p is going to be a pretty strong signal from upward oomph toward an initial 398p. Then things get a little awkward, as there's no doubt the market shared a fascination with this price level through 2014 and 2015.
It would be daft not to again anticipate some stutters if the price is fortunate enough to experience some proper growth. As we're taking an optimistic viewpoint, we can admit our secondary above 398p is a pretty useful 590p.
Now for the caveat. If Tullow's price performs the same shenanigans as Brent Crude, it is in grave danger of breaking below "blue" again and experiencing reversal - again - to the 200s. As a result, it's probably worth keeping an eye on the price of crude in conjunction with our report.
Brent crude revisitedWhen we viewed Brent on 29 April, we'd added our last paragraph simply due to the risks when a big trend is broken. We're quite serious when we warn things generally need a couple of days to define what's coming and Brent, perhaps unfortunately, has shown the benefit of experience. The product, indeed, was forced below the trend, quite accurately, rather spoiling our hopes for $49 initially with secondary $55.
Of course, our second problem is that we now need to wait a day or two to again try and figure out what the market intends. We received a semi-funny email, questioning if:
"Some bloke in London got back from the holiday weekend, saw what had happened to Brent crude and said 'nope'. Then he gapped the price back below the trend."
It would certainly explain a few things if this level of paranoia were true, but, realistically, all that happened is the price was slowed down. If any reversal actually has strength, near-term below $44.6 is supposed to find an initial $42.85 with secondary, if broken, at $41.1.
If triggered, the price must exceed $47.15 to scupper the drop potentials, so there's the stop-loss point. The bigger story comes if the drop targets are broken because, once again, Brent is in dangerous territory and $37.3 looks viable, as does the secondary at a longer term $29.4.