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FTSE + FTSE 250 - consider trading (FTSE)     

cynic - 20 Oct 2007 12:12

rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

cynic - 28 Jan 2008 09:49 - 768 of 21973

glad to hear you are being very cautious - very wise ...... FTSE holding up susprisingly well ...... have taken insurance by being SHORT FTSE, SOLA and now AL. ..... if wrong calls, then implication is that the gains on my long postions will counterbalance

cynic - 28 Jan 2008 10:31 - 769 of 21973

am now short of DOW too as i fully expect 12000 to be challenged once more.

Tuesday, with the Fed meeting may also be interesting to say the least ......

read a very interesting article over w/e in which Bernanke was highlighted as being a leading expert on 30's crash and depression ..... in his opinion, much of this was down to lack of speedy and decisive action by the Fed, so clearly he will not wish to be hung with his own petard (explanation available!) ...... how the market will view that is open to question ..... Bernanke is also very critical, and i think rightly, of the European banks for doing virtually nothing .... as he says, Europe cannot fool itself into thinking it is insulated or immune.

explosive - 28 Jan 2008 13:04 - 770 of 21973

Nice to have a counterbalance in play cynic, I expect 12000 on the DOW to be challenged this week, not sure of the support either as on last approach we saw the 75 basis points cut by the FED and still talk of more to come. Times like these its easy to be caught out.

CNE today has announced its very close to securing approval for pipeline to transport oil from its Rajasthan fields, 15th Feb is the date the FT think the deal will be signed by so plenty of time for the share to slip back. Gold is seeing higher prices which on the norm 9:1 ratio gold to oil indicates the price of oil will remain high. I think a spread buy here looking good for middle of Feb.

SOLA, I'm just going to watch this for the time being. Under 50 day MA's all indicate that a fall is coming however I don't like the bandwidth. RSI is also low, would have preferred a higher RSI 50ish on a downwards slope. You have history to your advantage with this one so best of luck with the short.

cynic - 28 Jan 2008 13:23 - 771 of 21973

SOLA
have a look at PTH's analysis .... much better than mine .... resistance is no higher than 425 and maybe a bit lower

CNE
not followed this one for quite a while, but chart less than exciting and down a further 72p today

required field - 28 Jan 2008 13:40 - 772 of 21973

By the way does anybody know of any dual listed stocks ? (JLP, Jubilee Platinum) is the only one I know of, listed in SA and on Aim and can be held in an ISA.

cynic - 28 Jan 2008 13:53 - 773 of 21973

RIO!!

cynic - 28 Jan 2008 15:36 - 774 of 21973

despite another set of appalling US housing figures, Dow has somewhat perversely staggered upwards ...... of course, that is everyone banking on another minimum 0.5% cut by Fed ...... meanwhile, European central banks do bugger all.

while one might argue that Fed is taking something of an alarmist stance, Bernanke will argue rightly or wrongly, that the Fed is at least doing something positive to try to head off the worst effects of any recession.

meanwhile, the European banks stand back and assume that Europe will blithely absorb and float through any US troubles ..... that has to be head in the sand stuff!

halifax - 28 Jan 2008 15:59 - 775 of 21973

Cynic you are absolutely right , if you keep your head in the sand you get stuffed!

steveo - 29 Jan 2008 13:34 - 776 of 21973

feels like bears gathering again, european banks report next month, more blood expected, think short positions in equities and even precious metals might be good for next week

cynic - 29 Jan 2008 13:52 - 777 of 21973

very hard to call .... many forces pulling in opposite directions at the moment, but certainly one needs to be very watchful and nimble if trading

by the way, assume you do not mean to short precious metals

required field - 29 Jan 2008 13:56 - 778 of 21973

Sold out of JKX, and bought back in the next day, (wish I could do that all the time), trouble is I get caught out sometimes !

BigTed - 29 Jan 2008 13:59 - 779 of 21973

Just opened CFD account, will have some fun with some fairly small positions to start with!

required field - 29 Jan 2008 14:03 - 780 of 21973

Don,t forget the stop losses Big Ted, and be prepared to take losses because you will have some as well as gains, Good luck !

cynic - 29 Jan 2008 14:05 - 781 of 21973

Ted ..... if trading indices, you really need to be watching constantly ..... are you with IG?

HARRYCAT - 29 Jan 2008 14:08 - 782 of 21973

Just a snippet from todays FT:
"Britain & the US are in for a very serious recession according to Philippe Jabre, the Geneva based hedge fund manager. He predicts only a short lived bounce on the stock markets & warns that those people who are exposed to heavy debts are going to face problems".
He also predicts that Soc Gen will now be a target for BNP Paribas (for those who trade in european stocks).
Of course he could be wrong. Just another opinion to throw in to the mix!

maddoctor - 29 Jan 2008 14:18 - 783 of 21973

well good durable goods orders but you can,t have it both ways so what is the Fed going to do?

cynic - 29 Jan 2008 14:57 - 784 of 21973

we all know they are going to cut rates ..... major prob however are the krauts in European Central Bank who think they can do a better job than Canute

maddoctor - 29 Jan 2008 15:01 - 785 of 21973

i don,t think we do know , the press is really giving Bernanke a hard time i.e. that he is hand in hand with Wall St

or worse , doing what they tell him

spitfire43 - 29 Jan 2008 16:12 - 786 of 21973

Bernanke is between a rock and a hard place, I would think he will cut, and if does and we have any sort of rally afterwards. Be ready to take advantage of short opportunities, I have a feeling FTSE could go back down to 5500 level and lower very quickly.

cynic - 29 Jan 2008 16:14 - 787 of 21973

note Dow's reluctance to break (minor) resistance at 12460 .... will be interesting to see what happens after Fed statement and first 10 minutes of euphoria ..... unfortunately have been seduced away from my screen for the evening
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