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Huge Gas Find Today (FEP)     

TheMaster - 26 Sep 2006 08:53

This is huge get in before the heard arrives to work this morning, the new VOG

seawallwalker - 01 Oct 2006 08:08 - 77 of 257

Oil Barrel item

I suggest as it is thought it will take 7 years to bring to market, this sp will not be sustained.

If you read the reserved item, you will see a fair few of my comments have been repeated.

I would say, be careful out there!

kitosdad - 02 Oct 2006 14:54 - 78 of 257

Well, that's YOU well wrong Master.

maddoctor - 02 Oct 2006 15:04 - 79 of 257

this looks like VOG - gas tomorrow with a big unknown on what tomorrow means

cynic - 02 Oct 2006 15:07 - 80 of 257

personally i think VOG is a much stronger proposition altogether

seawallwalker - 02 Oct 2006 15:22 - 81 of 257

Plaudits to the Master for reading this right in the first instance.

I didn't!

I have a sneaky feeling he took the profit and run reading through his posts.

Would that be right Master?

cynic - 02 Oct 2006 15:25 - 82 of 257

and am glad to say i never got in in the first place!

Confidant - 03 Oct 2006 11:48 - 83 of 257

interesting given the political climate that you like VOG better cynic.

For me what's interesting is:

1. Stock was floated at 110p mid last year --- now less than that

2. Company has so far delivered although I am a bit bemused at the time it took them to interpret the independent data -- but could be just that they wanted to position themselves

3. Sterlings energy's application for a service contract according to Seawall. Well if that is to do with FEP that would be a significant change to why SEY got out of the Philipinnes -- to focus on Africa and Gulf of Mexico -- This would be a positive

4. Shareholder base looks good or at least means these guys were legged over by the intial float story and paid 110p for it

5. SC40 --- Company has been approached by several farm in partners with further seismic results in 4Q

6. Reasonable board by the look of it

7. Using very conservative figures quoted somewhere on this thread that assuming 15% disc rate no upside above the 3.4TCF, 75% taken by farm-in and 7 years before gas flowing the share is worth 221p now -- so a 15% return pa going forward from now or 30p a share/year until flow date

All thiis seems like a happy upside/downside risk to take. No doubt the downside is large but the upside significantly larger


cynic - 03 Oct 2006 12:34 - 84 of 257

i confess i got into VOG almost by accident insofar as i had never heard of them until i joined LSE (can no longer be bothered with it) ..... at that time, LSE had some very good correspondents, and though i was initially advised to buy at around 90p, i did not get in until a while later.

to cut a long story short, i made quite a lot of money out of the stock by trading "surplus" to my core ...... confess i stupidly bought back in when the price dropped to 200p instead of following my own advice ..... dumb ass ..... ultimately liquidated all but bought back at 73 ands 104.

overall VOG certainly has a cap of approx 3x FEP's which makes it much more liquid.... also, i would be very surprised if VOG do not come up trumps sooner rather than later and they also seem to have some good contacts and even HoA tending towards actual contracts ...... while it is true Kaz is bandit country, so for sure are the Philippines.

as far as i can see, FEP have indeed made a great discovery, but patently lack the wherewithal to extract it, and even once that is secured, the sory is that it could take 7 years to do so! ..... perhaps the stock is worth buying on t/o prospects, but that is always risky logic.

seawallwalker - 03 Oct 2006 12:38 - 85 of 257

Never buy on t/o prospects.

cynic, have a look at GRV and thell me what you think.

Similar to FEP except their gas is in Italy and it appears to have been written out of the sp since January.

That's what I think will happen here btw.

cynic - 03 Oct 2006 12:39 - 86 of 257

doh seagoon* ..... or was that merely an echo?

seawallwalker - 03 Oct 2006 12:54 - 87 of 257

Sorry, where's me manners.

Please?

cynic - 03 Oct 2006 13:07 - 88 of 257

sorry if i have offended you, though i am sure i haven't .... lol!

seawallwalker - 03 Oct 2006 13:19 - 89 of 257

Not at all cynic.

Now will you look at GRV please?

ps I am sure you are douing quotes from Neddy Seagoon, but I am unfamilar apart from,

*They fallen in the water.........."

seawallwalker - 03 Oct 2006 13:22 - 90 of 257

Oh and ........... "Ning, ning ning nign nign nign nign..........!"

Confidant - 03 Oct 2006 16:21 - 91 of 257

Was that a tree shake?

seawallwalker - 03 Oct 2006 16:33 - 92 of 257

No.

Tree shakes do not occur as often as pi's may think they do.

It was a price flucuation the reasons for which may not at first be obvious.

cynic - 03 Oct 2006 16:34 - 93 of 257

seagoon .... do you mean 999 or nein nein nein????

seawallwalker - 03 Oct 2006 16:43 - 94 of 257

We must go back on topic here.

FEP is great with great prospects.

cynic - 03 Oct 2006 16:56 - 95 of 257

quite right .... enough silliness on here; will rightly get others totally pissed off

soul traders - 04 Oct 2006 12:28 - 96 of 257

You could cheer us all up by buying some FEP stock and putting a floor under the SP :o)
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