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UK Banks (BANK)     

BigTed - 17 Mar 2008 09:47

Not sure if this thread will catch on, because no-one here seems to have much to say about individual british banks, but thought i would add this header to see if we could discuss dividend yields, exposure to sup-prime, good ones, bad ones, take-over targets, when the crisis will end? do you think they have learnt their lesson? I, for one, as a property developer have seen first hand how much stricter they have become with lending habits, struggling to get decent rates for re-mortgaging, basically they appear scared to lend to anyone.


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hewittalan6 - 24 Apr 2008 11:16 - 77 of 331

You're right, Gus. The money is not cheap, but their lending falls into 2 categories.
They offer the unlimited adverse stuff which is used as a last chance saloon. I expect this particular bar to be full to overflowing by now. If you face the choice of repossession, or a change in lender and higher rates, most people (rightly or wrongly) try to rescue the situation by moving the loan. Usually this just puts off the inevitable, but the lender makes money.
The other arm(s) offer rapid financing for smaller developers and speculators. Traditionally, this is more risky, but with high rewards and other lenders would not go there due to the risk factor.
So in truth, though they are costly, the rewards are high and those using them know that. The odd % made little difference.

As for Charcol. Watch this space. Suffice to say that small brokers with very low overheads are struggling and reigning in spending. How would they manage if they had impressive head offices and huge amounts of backroom staff?

hangon - 24 Apr 2008 12:46 - 78 of 331

I am surprised there is any lending ( ie still standing), with piles of cash about. Add-in that is is not LIBOR ( mentioned here) and we have to conclude this is Savers' Deposits. . . . . i.e. the traditional BS model.

I'm not surprised folk are avoiding moving house ( with all the charges that involves) - particulalrly if all they are doing is move up-market. Stayiing put and building an extension, or having a last-minute foreign holiday - are "sweeter" ways to spend far less.

(This ignores folk who have to move for Job-reasons, but I suspect these are relativly few and many are assisted by the employer).

Therefore, it looks like traditional BS model is still working . . . so what is the issue with UK-Banks?
1) Banks are not lending to each other, fearing the borrowing bank's defaults may reduce their ability to repay loans.
2) They appear to have a large number of Mortgages on their books, some if these may turn bad - let's suggest this is about 5% - more than enough to wipe-out any profits.
3) The BoE ( or the Labour Government ) - wants to "do something" and the Banks have suggested the BoE takes-on these Mortgages......in exchange for cash....which (presumably) they can lend out at current/higher rates . . . . . thereby making up for their stupidity and losses on these Mortgages.

It seems to me that if Banks want to be shot of their Morgages - and the BoE is willing to provide Cash - We'd better take cover!

This is likely to end-up costing the Public far more.

IMHO Banks should NOT be allowed to continue to trade in this "profit-driven" risk-ignoring manner......it is self-evident that NRK was more than a wake-up call - it demonstated that Bankers are potentially grossly incompetant - it remains to be seen where the blame lies, but I like to follow the money - who was being paid the most? Which employees benefited from these Mortgages which were not backed by long-held cash?

Grr!

hewittalan6 - 24 Apr 2008 13:56 - 79 of 331

Hangon,
The lender i mention is not BS based, nor is its business, beyond that I say no more, other than it is deposit based.
The BS model does work though, and this is evidenced by the regional lenders who were offering loans across the UK who are now offering broadly similar product, but only at a local level.
Perhaps the argument was whether the capital adequacy requirements were wrongly set. They are at 4%. Any higher and the whole UK system would be doing either a NRK or as RBS, or, more likely, lending would have been stricter, earlier. If they were lower, the LIBOR markets would be freed up.
Trying to remember the figures from Tuesday, but the banks were arguing that we will not follow the USA to the same degree because secured lending in the UK accounts for about 1 Trillion, compared to about 3 Trillion in security, whereas the ratio for Uncle Sam is much higher.
Can't remember the figures exactly, so forgive me, but it would take much more here to create a situation where secured debts started to look insecure.

Guscavalier - 24 Apr 2008 15:16 - 80 of 331

I think the banks have had their wake up call Hangon. The fact that they have /or will be asking shareholders to subscribe to rights issues means that, quite rightly, the risks are shared with shareholders as well as the taxpayer. The outlook has changed and they cannot afford to go back to the lax ways of doing business. There will be no difficulty of obtaining funds where a good level of security is involved but, I believe, it will continue to get more expensive for riskier business. This is how it should be and how it used to be. Once the dust settles it will be a good time to invest and we may then see more sovereign wealth fund interest. All we need is some good timing.(easier said than done).

cobras - 24 Apr 2008 23:37 - 81 of 331

HELLO GUYS,,ANYONE HAVE INFORMATION OF NORTHERN ROCK COMPESATION, APRECIATE ANY FEED BACK!!!!1

maestro - 25 Apr 2008 00:14 - 82 of 331

ANYONE SEEN THE MASSIVE LOAN PLACARDS IN SAINSBURYS...THEY SEEM TO BE GIVING MONEY AWAY LIKE WATER EVEN IF THE BANKS AREN'T

Kayak - 25 Apr 2008 00:18 - 83 of 331

cobras, there isn't any, unless future court action is successful. See http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article3803540.ece. The government's position is that the firm would have been bankrupt if they hadn't helped it. A lot of water still to go under the bridge.

hewittalan6 - 26 Apr 2008 07:41 - 84 of 331

Following on from post 77.

A particular mortgage broker / club announced on Friday, a restructuring of its business in order to reduce overheads and costs.
While not (quite) as big as Charcol, it is still well inside the top 10 in the UK, and is backed by the Skipton B.Soc.
All are very insecure at the moment.
Meanwhile, the dullards at the FSA are not helping matters at all. They are known throughout the financial world as the "business prevention unit" and they are living up to their name.
Lenders and brokers alike are needing to reduce costs and overheads. If they can, then mortgage product can be made a little cheaper, and criteria can be loosened a little. More affordable and easier lending is what the economy is on its knees begging for. The FSA reaction is to increase paperwork and make lending harder.
Latest focuses include;
Affordability. Income multipliers are not necessarily enough, now. A full investigation of expenditure is now required on all but the cleanest cut cases. This increases documentary evidence and the time spent processing any cases. The reason is that the FSA believe people who cannot afford their mortgage are not to blame. The lender and broker are, and should be sued for bad advice!! Lenders and brokers therefore have to pull in their horns, have huge amounts of paperwork to back up their advice and set aside large amounts of capital to deal with the unjust complaints.
Interest only. These mortgages were popular among first time buyers who could just afford the interest, but not the full repayment mortgage. It got them on the ladder. The FSA believe this is bad advice and interest only should never be recommended or sold unless there is full evidence of sufficient savings to repay the debt. This is leading many brokers and lenders to walk away from loans where interest only is the best or only option, for fear of reprisals.
Because of this, professional indemnity insurance companies are raising premiums dramatically.
End result? Higher costs and less lending than ever.
Why? Because the FSA, in their wisdom, do not believe the customer can work out for themselves if they can afford a bill. It must be the bank or broker to blame.
It is time that the FSA was disbanded for good, the financial regulation areas was handed to a branch of the fraud office (because that is the only area where government should interfere with peoples personal finances) and we taught the population that the freedom they cherish so much includes the freedom to get it wrong and make mistakes without blaming the world and uncle Tom Cobleigh for their mistakes.
Rant over. (For now).

Joe Say - 26 Apr 2008 08:11 - 85 of 331

Hewitt - Whilst I am the last supporter of the FSA (they didn't see/act on Northern Crock, and god knows how many share advances ahead of news), I think you are bing disingenious.

The facts in the real world are that there are an awful lot of people out there who don't think the facts through properly (even if they are in possession of them, and given the way estate agents/brokers frenzy feed off clients, that can be excused), and even if they do are overwhelmed by the pressure to get on the housing ladder etc, that somebody needs to ensure that sense prevails.

Ironically, you haven't thought the effects through yourself of bad advice - ultimately it ends in exactly the credit crisis we are seeing now. Thus, rather than adding to costs, it is this protective behaviour in the long run that will help keep them down.

But no doubt you've a vested interest/myopia, like the boards/managers that run our banks at present !

hewittalan6 - 26 Apr 2008 11:08 - 86 of 331

Joe,
Inevitably, that kind of fuzzy thinking leads to more of the nanny state we all moan about now.
Is it McDonalds fault all our kids are porkers, or is it the fault of the parents?
Is it Tetleys fault when some 19 year old gets pissed and kills himself crossing a road?
Yes I have a vested interest in smooth running financial markets. We all do. I also have a vested interest in the NHS, even though I am not unwell. Yes I work in the industry.
Do you realise the industry is more heavily regulated, and with more beaurocracy than the NHS? Or education? But it patently does not work, otherwise the problems would not be here. May I venture to suggest that when massive regulation fails, more regulation is unlikely to improve matters.
Myopia is currently the preserve of those who argue regulation should increase or keep the status quo. Its effect, as proven by recent events, is the opposite of what we all want - better services.
The effect of increasing the burden is to increase costs, but you lot don't want to pay large fees for advice. You want it free or cheap. The result is that as costs rise disproportionatly, advisors get paid less and less. Lower salaries result in, you guessed it, worse advisors as the better ones head off to earn real money.
Result - lower quality advisors = lower quality advice = greater regulation, and on it goes.
Tell me if you go to the supermarket and buy a tin of beans. Does the retailer employ someone to stand there telling you that they are full of protein, but to be wary of the salt and sugar quantity? No?
Of course not, but will you sue them when your heart gives out?
No. Thats ridiculous. You can read on the tin and make your own mind up. If you can't understand it you can always ask a nutritionalist.
With financial services you expect an expert to tell you all about it. Thats fine. You cannot expect him to judge whether you can always afford it.
And remember, all mortgages come with legal advice. You have no excuse for not understanding it, unlike the beans.
No. There are 3 areas of the law that apply in almost all circumstances that the government ride roughshod over in this arena.
Volenti non fit injuras. You know the risks of a long term contract. If your circumstances change, how can you blame someone else? You voluntarily run the risk.
Res ipsa locquiter. You have all the details and access to legal advice, it is all written down and signed by you. Providing the contract doesn't change, how can you complain. Let the facts speak for themselves.
Caveat Emptor. Let the buyer beware. No advisor ever holds a gun to anyones head. They advise, you decide.
If we really want better service and a cleaner industry, then lets reduce the governance. Let the market decide acceptable lending and let the market pay for quality advisory and underwriting staff. That may stop another credit crisis. Employing advisors and underwriters on McWages definitely wont.
Alan

hewittalan6 - 26 Apr 2008 11:19 - 87 of 331

BTW, Joe.
Had my staff advised people 10 years ago not to take an interest only mortgage, but stay renting instead, you would have been at the front of the queue to sue the arse off everyone I ever met, because that advice would ahve been shockingly bad. It would have lost them thousands.
You now argue we should have done exactly that for the last few years!!
Tell you what. We will follow it to its logical conclusion and my company will be responsible for any change in circumstances ever, regardless of how outrageous they are.
When someone dies and their wife can no longer afford the mortgage because they cancelled the life cover we insisted on, that will be our fault.
Might sound stupid, but it is not nearly as stupid as arguing we should have foreseen the current economic climate several years ago. The first is predictable. The second was not.
And think through your argument about someone taking responsibility for talking sense to these people. If I had told a young couple 10 years ago not to buy a house, they couldn't afford it, do you really believe they would have agreed and stayed put? Get real.
They would have trotted off to the local branch of the Halifax and taken whatever they could get. They would have been in the same mess, because banks do not advise, but I would have saved them a few quid in the meantime by ensuring they got the best possible deal in the UK. Yet somehow I am a pantomime villain for that? Strange.

Guscavalier - 26 Apr 2008 11:33 - 88 of 331

Agree with what to say Alan. Unfortunately too many people have been encouraged to have what they like. Many can not be bothered to read what is on the tin. Many people, myself included have ranted on to friends, relatives etc about the dangers of excessive debt. It can be better to go without unnecessary things rather than build up debt. Unfortunately, it is times like these that hard lessons are learnt.

Interesting article on http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/ about buy to let and embodying a comment by Katie Tucker of John Charcol. You did say "watch this space" re John Charcol the other day.

hewittalan6 - 26 Apr 2008 12:24 - 89 of 331

Can't find the reference to Ms Tucker at the mo, Gus, but keep watching. Rumours are rife and growing.

Guscavalier - 26 Apr 2008 13:17 - 90 of 331

Ian, re Times online article-Katie Tucker- "after another week of turmoil in mortgage markets novice landlords now face huge difficulties securing a loan and thousands of existing landlords coming to the end of fixed-rate deals will find it very expensive to switch mortgage providers if they have not built up 75% equity in their buy-to-let property".

Business is on the wane - keeping watch.

2517GEORGE - 27 Apr 2008 19:46 - 91 of 331

Looks like HBOS could be next up to the trough for around 6b.
2517

mitzy - 30 Apr 2008 09:40 - 92 of 331

My target for HBOS is 300p the rights issue will only add problems to a worsening housing market.

robertalexander - 30 Apr 2008 12:17 - 93 of 331

I have asked for my bank divis to be paid in shares as opposed to cash.

Where can I find out how many shares I will get for my divi. I know how much divi per share is but don't know what price they use for the share valuation. i.e. - is the SP at ex-divi date or SP when divi is paid [or another price ?]
Alex

hewittalan6 - 30 Apr 2008 17:27 - 94 of 331

RBS / Natwest / One Account has cut fixed rates to new borrowers by up to 0.3%.
The begining of the end of the crisis? No, but perhaps the end of the begining.
They have signalled that this is in response to maintaining an increased market share. This shows how many lenders have disappeared from the market.
I fully expect other lenders to follow suit, and indeed know of several who have deals on "withdrawl watch".
The begining of the end will be signalled by relaxing criteria and higher loan to values. That will not come for some time yet.

kimoldfield - 30 Apr 2008 19:31 - 95 of 331

Alex,
The share price is the average of the middle market quotations for the companys shares as derived from the London Stock Exchange Daily Official List for the five business days commencing the day on which the shares were first quoted ex dividend.

robertalexander - 01 May 2008 08:19 - 96 of 331

Kim
many thanks
Alex
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