Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Afternoon all - back from a wonderful week or so of walking and touring Scotland. Nearly got snowed in too in Braemar, just round the corner from Lizzie's B&B at Balmoral. Wonderful stuff and can't wait to get back there again.

Missed a load on Cable by the looks of things - seem to make a habit of going away at crucial times.

Good to be back though too :-))

Treasury Committee Opening Statement

Cable 1.9800 by the end of the week, month and quarter...any takers..

Some say when the majors range the minors trend....has that been happenning?

Happy Easter FX'ers. Tempted to short cable now and just leave it open for a week or so as I shalln't be around.

The forecast is for snow where I'm going tomorrow - it needs some now!

Despite my post 2 above here...and looking at longer bars to get a clue as to direction I am now...

short Cable
Long USD / Yen

200 pips off each should do.. lol

Have a great time Hils.

Should be back into Fx in 2-3 weeks myself, away next week then lots happening workwise after that.

Well, can you believe that?

Crazy!

While Hil is off up an Alp, the FX Fairy has stepped into her shoes and brought you a shiny new Economic Data Release Calendar to aid and abet your trading efforts.

Cheers MM

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=1878853

There we go John, explains the sudden rise!

Can't actually see anything on that link Pete.

That's because MoneyAM don't store some of the links for more than 24 hours, Harlosh. Ian told me this last year.


Dollar Slumped as US Applies New Import Duties on China

The dollar fell sharply across the board after US government said it will levy new duties on imports of coated paper from China. A Commerce Department official said this move reversed an old policy of not applying duties to subsidized goods from non-market economies. The euro tested 1.34 and the sterling broke 1.97 versus the dollar, while the yen bounced from 118 to 117.22 against the dollar.

This knee-jerk reaction seems somewhat overdone since it happened just before London market close and it is Friday when traders tried to get out of their long dollar positions. The dollar steadied later, with euro and sterling bouncing off session highs.

Earlier in Friday US session, the dollar gained only slightly after a run of US economic data came in better than expected. Core PCE rose 0.4% in February, showing core inflation risks remain high. Personal income and consumption both increased 0.6%, better than expectation. Chicago PMI surprisingly climbed from 47.9 to 61.7, far above the forecast of 49.2. Later, a weak number University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell from 91.3 to 88.3 in March, the lowest in six months.

Thanks for that Choccy.

Hi choccy..did I read once that you use "Net Dania" rather than power charts.?

They seem to be the best a coping with fast markets...
If thats right...how are you managing to save charts?
I currently have both...Power for the "fancy lines"...and
net dania to keep up with fast markets...

What are others using?

I do prefer Netdania, foale.
There have been times when it's been a little unreliable on some of the hourlies.
Can't comment on Powercharts as I only use them for back up, along with Saxobank, which is limited.

Sounds a bit laborious, I know, but I haven't minded redrawing, it's part of the wake-up ritual every morning :) and it's given me a discipline of not falling into any kind of complacency. To this end I've always kept screenshots. I've started saving them in the Chartstation bit now, but it's making me lazy ;)

I mentioned this a long while back, but I used to use a German futures software package, which was vastly more versatile, with up to 2 years of historical data, as I recall, and many more instruments apart from currency pairs.

Elsewhere the pound was higher at midday after a weaker-than expected manufacturing purchasing managers index was offset by strong mortgage equity withdrawal figures. The data maintained expectations the Bank of England will raise interest rates to 5.25 pct at its meeting in May or possibly as soon as this week when it meets on Thursday.

The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply's purchasing managers index fell to 54.4 in March from 55.4 in February, analysts polled by AFX News had predicted a much more moderate fall to 55.0.

'On the PMI, it appears that there was some payback after very strong February figures - the headline PMI had been at its highest level since May 2004,' said Alan Castle, UK economist at Lehman Brothers.

However, Bank of England figures showed mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW) in the UK rose to 14.6 bln stg in the fourth quarter of 2006 from 12.2 bln stg in the third quarter.

'At a time when policymakers are looking for signs that monetary tightening is biting on the consumer sector, today's figures could persuade some MPC members that spending growth can be maintained even after another rate hike,' Castle added.

The data maintained expectations the Bank of England will raise interest rates to 5.25 pct . . .

Choccie, I don't know where you clipped that from, but as interest rates are currently 5.25%, the author could do with checking the header of this thread.

Blimey Dezza - you're right, what a twonk.
Was busy drawing new lines when I posted the thingie.
It'll be that Rachel Armstrong then :)

12:39
Forex - Australian dollar at 10-year highs as RBA rate hike expectations rise
AFX


LONDON (AFX) - The Australian dollar was at 10-year highs against the dollar at midday after buoyant consumption and housing data raised expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may raise borrowing costs tomorrow.

Most RBA watchers think the central bank will decide to keep its key cash rate unchanged at 6.25 pct but stressed that today's news that retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.9 pct in February from January and building approvals surged a monthly 10.6 pct have made it a much closer call.

'For choice the RBA will most likely prefer to wait until they have seen the first quarter CPI data released later this month, although a number of indicators suggest that the policy tightening pursued thus far has not had major impact, so a further immediate rate hike could easily be rationalised,' said Ian Gunner, head of research at Mellon Foreign Exchange.

Elsewhere the pound was higher at midday after a weaker-than expected manufacturing purchasing managers index was offset by strong mortgage equity withdrawal figures. The data maintained expectations the Bank of England will raise interest rates to 5.25 pct at its meeting in May or possibly as soon as this week when it meets on Thursday.

The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply's purchasing managers index fell to 54.4 in March from 55.4 in February, analysts polled by AFX News had predicted a much more moderate fall to 55.0.

'On the PMI, it appears that there was some payback after very strong February figures - the headline PMI had been at its highest level since May 2004,' said Alan Castle, UK economist at Lehman Brothers.

However, Bank of England figures showed mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW) in the UK rose to 14.6 bln stg in the fourth quarter of 2006 from 12.2 bln stg in the third quarter.

'At a time when policymakers are looking for signs that monetary tightening is biting on the consumer sector, today's figures could persuade some MPC members that spending growth can be maintained even after another rate hike,' Castle added.

Meanwhile the euro was steady despite a slip in the euro zone's manufacturing purchasing managers index in March to a 13-month low of 55.4 in March from 55.6 in February.

Analysts said the sector is still growing solidly, remaining well above the 50 dividing line between expansion and contraction, and is unlikely to diminish expectations for the European Central Bank to rise its key refi rate a further quarter point to 4.00 pct later this year.

'Manufacturing is still at a pretty elevated level across the euro zone,' said Howard Archer at Global Insight.

'Consequently, the survey is unlikely to markedly change the view within the European Central Bank that there is no need for monetary policy to remain on the 'accommodative side',' he added.

The dollar meanwhile was steady ahead of the US March manufacturing index from the Institute of Supply management. Analysts polled by AFX News expect the headline figure to fall to 51.7 from February's rise to 52.3.

'In the past, the ISM manufacturing index has given a good indication of the Fed's monetary policy - an ISM index below 50 during three consecutive months has been a good indication for Fed cuts', said analysts at Commerzbank Corporates and Markets.

'But since the index bounced to 52.3 in February, the imminent chances of a rate cut in the near term have fallen - although part of the rise was due to a normalisation in the inventory component,' they added.







London 1202 BST London 0810 BST

US dollar

yen 117.66 unchanged 117.66

sfr 1.2145 down from 1.2153

Euro

usd 1.3352 up from 1.3342

yen 157.16 up from 157.00

sfr 1.6219 down from 1.6220

stg 0.6766 down from 0.6770

Sterling

usd 1.9734 up from 1.9704

yen 232.28 up from 231.82

sfr 2.3966 up from 2.3948

Australian dollar

usd 0.8143 up from 0.8134

yen 95.84 up from 95.70



rachel.armstrong@thomson.com

Oh, that Rachel Armstrong. A little slip, I'm sure. My Madonna of the FX Markets is that Nicole Elliott of Mizuho Corporate Bank. She does a recorded weekly Technical Summary which can make quite witty listening. 020-7786-2509, I think, unless that's her direct line . . .

Wondering if Cable just going to slowly rally to old high. just above 1.9900 in the run up to Thursday MPC....