Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Blimey Dezza - you're right, what a twonk.
Was busy drawing new lines when I posted the thingie.
It'll be that Rachel Armstrong then :)

12:39
Forex - Australian dollar at 10-year highs as RBA rate hike expectations rise
AFX


LONDON (AFX) - The Australian dollar was at 10-year highs against the dollar at midday after buoyant consumption and housing data raised expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may raise borrowing costs tomorrow.

Most RBA watchers think the central bank will decide to keep its key cash rate unchanged at 6.25 pct but stressed that today's news that retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.9 pct in February from January and building approvals surged a monthly 10.6 pct have made it a much closer call.

'For choice the RBA will most likely prefer to wait until they have seen the first quarter CPI data released later this month, although a number of indicators suggest that the policy tightening pursued thus far has not had major impact, so a further immediate rate hike could easily be rationalised,' said Ian Gunner, head of research at Mellon Foreign Exchange.

Elsewhere the pound was higher at midday after a weaker-than expected manufacturing purchasing managers index was offset by strong mortgage equity withdrawal figures. The data maintained expectations the Bank of England will raise interest rates to 5.25 pct at its meeting in May or possibly as soon as this week when it meets on Thursday.

The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply's purchasing managers index fell to 54.4 in March from 55.4 in February, analysts polled by AFX News had predicted a much more moderate fall to 55.0.

'On the PMI, it appears that there was some payback after very strong February figures - the headline PMI had been at its highest level since May 2004,' said Alan Castle, UK economist at Lehman Brothers.

However, Bank of England figures showed mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW) in the UK rose to 14.6 bln stg in the fourth quarter of 2006 from 12.2 bln stg in the third quarter.

'At a time when policymakers are looking for signs that monetary tightening is biting on the consumer sector, today's figures could persuade some MPC members that spending growth can be maintained even after another rate hike,' Castle added.

Meanwhile the euro was steady despite a slip in the euro zone's manufacturing purchasing managers index in March to a 13-month low of 55.4 in March from 55.6 in February.

Analysts said the sector is still growing solidly, remaining well above the 50 dividing line between expansion and contraction, and is unlikely to diminish expectations for the European Central Bank to rise its key refi rate a further quarter point to 4.00 pct later this year.

'Manufacturing is still at a pretty elevated level across the euro zone,' said Howard Archer at Global Insight.

'Consequently, the survey is unlikely to markedly change the view within the European Central Bank that there is no need for monetary policy to remain on the 'accommodative side',' he added.

The dollar meanwhile was steady ahead of the US March manufacturing index from the Institute of Supply management. Analysts polled by AFX News expect the headline figure to fall to 51.7 from February's rise to 52.3.

'In the past, the ISM manufacturing index has given a good indication of the Fed's monetary policy - an ISM index below 50 during three consecutive months has been a good indication for Fed cuts', said analysts at Commerzbank Corporates and Markets.

'But since the index bounced to 52.3 in February, the imminent chances of a rate cut in the near term have fallen - although part of the rise was due to a normalisation in the inventory component,' they added.







London 1202 BST London 0810 BST

US dollar

yen 117.66 unchanged 117.66

sfr 1.2145 down from 1.2153

Euro

usd 1.3352 up from 1.3342

yen 157.16 up from 157.00

sfr 1.6219 down from 1.6220

stg 0.6766 down from 0.6770

Sterling

usd 1.9734 up from 1.9704

yen 232.28 up from 231.82

sfr 2.3966 up from 2.3948

Australian dollar

usd 0.8143 up from 0.8134

yen 95.84 up from 95.70



rachel.armstrong@thomson.com

Oh, that Rachel Armstrong. A little slip, I'm sure. My Madonna of the FX Markets is that Nicole Elliott of Mizuho Corporate Bank. She does a recorded weekly Technical Summary which can make quite witty listening. 020-7786-2509, I think, unless that's her direct line . . .

Wondering if Cable just going to slowly rally to old high. just above 1.9900 in the run up to Thursday MPC....

Hi everyone, hope your all keeping well and hilary is upto her naughty bits in snow! Apologies for not posting for a while, have been looking in occasionally but haven't been trading(except for one day in france when didn't fancy the skiing conditions) but have been on a bit of a road trip(6000+ miles in the last couple months), decided to sell my car and get a more robust vehicule for up in the hills here(put a hole in my sump b4 christmas). Anyway a friend wanted to go and visit his son who was working in tignes so ended up in the alps for a few weeks seeing old friends enroute for england. Had a couple big birthdays to celebrate with family and friends on my return and then had to look after my daughter while my ex went into hospital for an op(which all went well) and search for another vehicule, ended up getting a nissan xtrail which pleased with sofar.

Anyway hopefully get myself sorted and back to trading after easter. On the trading front, can you get the dollar index charts etc for free anywhere?

Hi GFI - and here's us just sitting in front of our screens all day (well, some days)

Now you keep saying your coming back but you end up all over the place. Time you settled down :-))

well cable shying away from high....might just have to ride the 120 Yen train...

Hi h, Since begining nov when i moved up here havent been in one place for more than 3 weeks. Hopefully here til later in may when daughters half term when my time will get disrupted again for a couple weeks. Guy i was trading with has moved out2 thailand so might have to fit a trip there b4 next winter. Now living in a little white village and they call the houses fridges in the winter(occasionally more like deep freezes), so wasnt sad to be away from here for a while. Also didnt know when exactly my ex was going to have her op or how long she would need to recuperate for, so had to be fairly flexible with my time. Pretty sure i wont be here next winter, think the alps bekon for next season(plus been offered part time work if i'm not making enough s), just hope they have better snow next year.
Not sure where i want to live on a more permanent basis yet, so settling down isn't an option at the moment!

Only kidding Gfi - good luck whatever you do.

Funny how everyone seems to dosappear on this thread then it suddenly bursts to life for a short time before becoming snoozeville again.

Is there anybody there?

Yep. Still at work :S

Yep - looking in after being away for a week. Cable shorts in place.

Not sure we'll see 120 this week, foale.
Covered a yen long after lunch slightly below where it is now (118.89), although I've had a sneaky feeling that it might well break this range since the 115 low. Stuck a few short orders in between 119.40-60, and if they miss, well there's always tomorrow ;)

House prices rose 1.0 percent in March, taking the annual three-month rate to a two-year high of 11.1 percent, a survey showed on Thursday, suggesting rising borrowing costs have yet to stifle demand.

March's annual three month reading is the strongest rate of house price inflation since February 2005 when prices rose 12.1 percent and the first time the rate has risen above 10 percent since March 2005, Halifax said.

Cable 1.9710 or 1.9670/60 tops for a bounce ;)

Or we're back to 1.96.

Hi Choccy...2 more days before your namesake...

I have my line in the sand at 1.9680- 1.9695
ok its a thickish line...

I see it as much as a pivot/ springbooard towards the elusive 2
break of 1.9775 to confirm

a break down and some more serious retesting of the lows
...and yes certainly 1.9600 for starters with 1.9660 break as confirmation


In a way no rate rise removed some uncertainly for me...
as next month...points to a definiate rise to me..

Enjoy your eggs...lol

Unfortunately, it seems that Dailyfx.com have screwed up the Economic Data Release Calendar format again, so I have downloaded and converted the xls to a gif which is hosted at IST. However, for some quaint reason, my gif conversion software will not do the whole file so you've only got the first couple of days so far. I'll work on the problem and try to resolve it. Our Hil has gone skiing, so I can't ask her to use her Jpeg conversion software which is how we resolved this problem last time.

Meanwhile, good fortune all FXers.

I can't leave you alone for one single week without you breaking the blasted calendar, MM!!!

:o)

Anyway, I'm back and I'll sort it out for next week.

Hil, sorry Miss, it was Kathy, Miss.

If you produce a JPEG, mail it to me and I'll ftp onto an IST server.

Otherwise, I'll just tack another gif on the two that are already there. I seem to be using an evaluation copy of something and I suspect it restricts the size of the gif it will produce.

Any of you folks come across this outfit

www.efxgroup.com

They profess to having a trading platform which includes Level2 style data and the facility to place limit orders on the book.

Have any of you come across other brokerages providing this with perhaps a GBP denominated account ?

Complete calendar posted as Jpeg -- sorry for the fuzzy bits . . .