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nicked this from a thread on the betfair forum

Not convinced it is a 50% chance he will play myself:

"Because of the pain in his left foot, Rafa is now using insoles to correct his foot placement to prevent further injury. He has not adjusted to the insoles, which presently strain his calves.

He has two weeks to get used to the special insoles before playing the Australian Open, beginning January 16. It is a race against time. If it were another tournament, Rafa would not think of playing, but because it's the year's first slam, he is going to make the effort. As his uncle and coach, Toni Nadal, explains: "Rafa has recovered from the injury to his foot but the change of support pressure points, because of the insoles, have caused muscle strain and that is the problem that makes us doubtful for Australia. We will only travel if he is fully fit. We cannot play thinking of getting through one round."

From Rafas website

nadal

http://sports.yahoo.com/ten/news?slug=reu-nadal&prov=reuters&type=lgns

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/tennis/4561684.stm

Schiff

Tread carefully with Nadal cos he's injured and hasn't played for a while.

He pulled out of the Master's Cup in Nov which was exclusively for the top 8 of 2005 which attracted a hefty pay cheque. He also had to pull out of the Chennai tournament last week. I don't think he's played a competitive game for at least 2 months.

I also heard that his chances of making the Aus Open is only 50/50.

Lets all laugh at tottenham (again) la la la la

Thanks for your help Fundy & Bakko - I suppose I should have known there was a catch. I lose my CB stake if Nadal doesn't participate at all and my BF lays will be void - so it's bad news.
My only way out is if he plays and I can lay off the rest of my CB stake. If he ain't 100% fit he's not likely to win, is he?
My suprise is that he is still 2nd favourite with betfair but of course if he's a NR the bets don't stand.
Another lesson learnt!

Schiff

for your sake hope he turns up for the first round at least, hope your stake wasnt too large.

you will often find that likely non runners prices are much lower than they should be on betfair. This is done to drive out the prices of other players (maintaining a 102% ish book), mainly to catch out the bots. You will often see a horse withdrawn in a horserace a few mins from the start and before the market is suspended that horses price will actaully shorten!

there are a few catches like this when trying to arb bets, another to watch out for is sometimes what is a 3 way result (ie win lose or draw) on betfair is only a 2 way result (win or lose) with some bookies where the bet is void if a draw

Ain't cup matches just great!

1.12 Celtic sunk
1.14 Man u sunk
1.06 Spurs sunk

shiff......its a case of the old saying " if it looks too good to be true it usualy is "
i'm affraid, and that applies especially to betting, any arb will be quickly snaped up with the bots

Fundy.....will the liquidity be good enough on the 20/20?

Have i seen apost some where that you said you like laying heavy backed fav. on the horses? Just trying to find my edge at the mo. and had some success with it.

Cloudbase

would expect the liquidity to be good on the 20:20 but we'll just have to wait and see.

No not a fan of laying anything that has been heavily backed unless i think the price is wrong (sometimes i lay very short favs if they have been overbacked ie the 1.16 in ireland that got beat the other day) but only for small stakes

with the horses i tend to trade solely on price trend/weight of money though i will often let a lay run rather than green it up (it is apparent that some horses cannot win!)

Good volume and some excellent opportunities on NFL this evening.

Fundy........Ok, thanks. Was looking at only 30% of fav. win to find an edge, back to the drawing board.

Cloudbase

with prices like that you will, find that over time the market is very efficient and hence they are fairly priced. I dare say if scrip reads this he may be able to post some stats to back that up for me.

if you break it down slightly, short priced novice chasers are a more viable target to lay but invariably blanket theories like this dont work as the market will correct itself and price them correctly going forward

anyone else around - is betfair down as i cant access ?

got back in now

Australia won the toss and elected to bat first

Australia team:
DR Martyn, JR Hopes, *RT Ponting, A Symonds, MJ Clarke,
MEK Hussey, +BJ Haddin, SM Katich, NW Bracken, SR Clark,
ML Lewis.

South Africa team:
*GC Smith, HH Dippenaar, HH Gibbs, JH Kallis, JA Rudolph,
SM Pollock, +MV Boucher, AJ Hall, J Botha, GJP Kruger,
M Zondeki.


So Kallis is playing!

sold aussie first 6 overs at 50 runs

closed at 46 and turned round - didnt like that bet at all lol

Hi Fundy, Thanks for the explanation.
Just watching for now, AUS seem to be in command

Cloudbase

yep aussies in control but looks a cracking wicket, 180 would be a par score to me, may well be value in laying Aussies if they get nearer 1.2

Fundy... price didn't stay out long for Kallis wicket, which would suggest people already betting on AUS win a forgone conc.