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Fundy.....will the liquidity be good enough on the 20/20?

Have i seen apost some where that you said you like laying heavy backed fav. on the horses? Just trying to find my edge at the mo. and had some success with it.

Cloudbase

would expect the liquidity to be good on the 20:20 but we'll just have to wait and see.

No not a fan of laying anything that has been heavily backed unless i think the price is wrong (sometimes i lay very short favs if they have been overbacked ie the 1.16 in ireland that got beat the other day) but only for small stakes

with the horses i tend to trade solely on price trend/weight of money though i will often let a lay run rather than green it up (it is apparent that some horses cannot win!)

Good volume and some excellent opportunities on NFL this evening.

Fundy........Ok, thanks. Was looking at only 30% of fav. win to find an edge, back to the drawing board.

Cloudbase

with prices like that you will, find that over time the market is very efficient and hence they are fairly priced. I dare say if scrip reads this he may be able to post some stats to back that up for me.

if you break it down slightly, short priced novice chasers are a more viable target to lay but invariably blanket theories like this dont work as the market will correct itself and price them correctly going forward

anyone else around - is betfair down as i cant access ?

got back in now

Australia won the toss and elected to bat first

Australia team:
DR Martyn, JR Hopes, *RT Ponting, A Symonds, MJ Clarke,
MEK Hussey, +BJ Haddin, SM Katich, NW Bracken, SR Clark,
ML Lewis.

South Africa team:
*GC Smith, HH Dippenaar, HH Gibbs, JH Kallis, JA Rudolph,
SM Pollock, +MV Boucher, AJ Hall, J Botha, GJP Kruger,
M Zondeki.


So Kallis is playing!

sold aussie first 6 overs at 50 runs

closed at 46 and turned round - didnt like that bet at all lol

Hi Fundy, Thanks for the explanation.
Just watching for now, AUS seem to be in command

Cloudbase

yep aussies in control but looks a cracking wicket, 180 would be a par score to me, may well be value in laying Aussies if they get nearer 1.2

Fundy... price didn't stay out long for Kallis wicket, which would suggest people already betting on AUS win a forgone conc.

Cloudbase

wickets shouldnt change the price much - no chance they will be bowled out in their overs hence run rate more than wickets will determine price - also wicket brought in Ponting with Symonds in next!

bigger reaction to Ponting wicket

Yes, but only short lived, good trading opp. missed here.

An expensive over from Kallis

saffers dropped 2 sitters that will cost them dearly

Yes, runs looking now like 190/200 total

spreads indicating 210 ish

SA in danger of a 6 run penalty for slow over rate