rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

Greece, creditors make little progress as clock ticks

News Patience needed on Greek reforms - EU task force head
9:16am GMT
Number of Germans opposed to Greek aid falls - poll
10:47am GMTRelated TopicsBusiness »
LONDON/ATHENS | Thu Jan 19, 2012 11:47am GMT

LONDON/ATHENS (Reuters) - Greece and its bondholders have made little progress since resuming stalled talks on a debt swap, three sources close to the talks told Reuters on Thursday, with time to strike a deal and avoid a messy default running out rapidly.

Nearly a week after talks hit an impasse, the two sides remain bogged down over the coupon, or interest payment, that Greece must offer on its new bonds under the swap.

A senior Greek official also played down speculation that terms of a deal had been nearly pinned down, saying: "Nothing has been concluded yet."

Negotiations between Prime Minister Lucas Papademos and Charles Dallara, head of the International Institute of Finance representing private bond holders, on the gamut of issues are due to resume in Athens on Thursday evening.

The stakes could not be higher. The two sides must thrash out a deal within days to pave the way for Greece to receive a new infusion of aid and avoid bankruptcy when 14.5 billion euros (11.3 billion pounds) of bond redemptions fall due in March.

Even if a deal is struck rapidly, the paperwork will take weeks and Greece's official lenders -- the European Union and the International Monetary Fund -- say the work must be cleared before funds are doled out from a 130 billion euro rescue plan they drew up in October.

Turning up the pressure ahead of Thursday's talks, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told lawmakers that a large chunk of the bond swap must be agreed by noon on Friday and formalised before Monday's meeting of euro zone finance ministers.

Kept afloat by bailout loans, Greece faces the threat of having to leave the euro zone and slumping into further economic and social misery if it fails to come to grips with its debt, including securing a deal with the private bond holders.

"Now is the crucial moment in the final battle for the debt swap and the crucial moment in the final and definitive battle for the new bailout," Venizelos told parliament. "Now, now! Now is the time to negotiate for the sake of the country."

NO MIRACLES

The swap is aimed at cutting 100 billion euros off Greece's over 350 billion euro debt load by getting the private holders of Greek bonds to accept a 50 percent writedown on their notional value.

But terms of the swap -- including the interest rate and maturity date of new bonds Greece would sell to the private creditors in place of old debt -- have been up for negotiation.

The talks ran into trouble last week over Greek demands for an interest rate below the 4 percent that banks were willing to stomach and a plan to enforce losses on investors.

A lower interest rate would push the actual loss investors take to well above the 50 percent level initially envisaged.

A 3.5 percent coupon demanded by Greece and its lenders, for example, would imply a roughly 70 percent net present value loss for investors, according to the Reuters Breakingviews calculator.

Greece is stumbling through its worst post-World War Two crisis, with unemployment at record highs and near-daily protests, strikes and work stoppages against austerity measures that have deepened an already brutal recession.

Nearly one out of two youth is unemployed and anger against wave after wave of tax hikes and pay cuts is running high.

Its latest bailout -- drawn up on condition Greece pushes through painful cuts and structural reforms -- are expected to reduce Greece's debt to a more manageable 120 percent of gross domestic product in 2020 from about 160 percent now.

But speculation has grown that Greece may need further funds than those promised by partners, with a growing sense among some that the country's current state of affairs is untenable.

Horst Reichenbach, head of the European Commission's task force to help rebuild the Greek economy, appealed to Europe for patience with the Mediterranean country, saying reforms were moving slowly but no miracles should be expected.

In Washington, an IMF spokeswoman said staff at the Fund had sought executive board approval for talks with Greece that might lead to a deal requiring "exceptional access" to IMF loans.

Greece already has exceptional access to IMF funding that allows it to draw more than 600 percent of its IMF quota and any further negotiations require fresh board approval.

(Additional reporting by Lefteris Papadimas and George Georgiopoulos,; writing by Deepa Babington. Editing by Jeremy Gaunt.)

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Index 7.3 consensus 10.7 previous 10.3

Previous was revised down from 10.3 to 6.8, so slightly better this month but not so good as was thought last month.
2517

Retail Sales m/m 0.6 v consensus 0.6 previous -0.4

Witching!

..Or carry on regardless, based on recent witching form -):

Core CPI m/m -0.5 v forecast -0.2 previous 0.1

US Core retail sales m/m 0.3% v consensus 0.2% previous 0.7%

quelle surprise n'est ce pas!! LOL! / wonder how down ftse close today?:

Euro zone ministers reject private bondholders' Greece offer


BRUSSELS/BERLIN | Tue Jan 24, 2012 1:19pm GMT

BRUSSELS/BERLIN (Reuters) - Euro zone finance ministers on Monday rejected as insufficient an offer made by private bondholders to help restructure Greece's debts, sending negotiators back to the drawing board and raising the threat of Greek default.

At a meeting in Brussels, ministers said they could not accept bondholders' demands for a coupon of four percent on new, longer-dated bonds that are expected be issued in exchange for their existing Greek holdings.

Greece says it is not prepared to pay a coupon of more than 3.5 percent, and euro zone finance ministers effectively backed the Greek government's position at Monday's meeting, a position that the International Monetary Fund also supports.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the chairman of the Eurogroup countries, said Greece needed to pursue a deal with private bondholders where the interest rate on the replacement bonds was "clearly" below 4.0 percent, stating:

"Ministers asked their Greek colleagues to pursue negotiations to bring the interest rates on the new bonds to below 4 percent for the total period, which implies the interest comes down to well below 3.5 percent before 2020."

The aim of the restructuring is to reduce Greece's debts by around 100 billion euros, cutting them from 160 percent of GDP to 120 percent by 2020, a level EU and IMF officials think will be more manageable for the growth-less Greek economy.

But with Greece off-track in its efforts to get its budget deficit in shape, the 2020 goal looks a long shot at best.

The disagreement increases the risk that it will prove impossible to strike a voluntary restructuring deal between Greece's creditors and the Greek government - an outcome that would have severe repercussions for financial markets.

Negotiations over what's called 'private sector involvement' (PSI) have been going on for nearly seven months without a concrete breakthrough. Failure to reach a deal by March, when Athens must repay 14.5 billion euros of maturing debt, could result in a disorderly default.

Despite the disagreement, Olli Rehn, the European commissioner in charge of economic and monetary affairs, said he expected a deal on PSI to be struck "within days".

PERMANENT BAILOUT FUND

As well as assessing Greece's debt restructuring, euro zone ministers discussed efforts to enforce stricter budget rules for EU states via a "fiscal compact", and steps to finalise the structure of a permanent euro zone bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), which is due to operate from July.

The ESM will have an effective lending capacity of 500 billion euros and replace the European Financial Stability Facility, a temporary fund that has so far been used to bail out Ireland and Portugal and which will be used to provide part of a second, 130 billion euro package for Greece.

Germany has insisted that once the ESM is up and running, the combined potential outlay of the EFSF and ESM should not exceed 500 billion euros (419 billion pounds).

Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti and IMF chief Christine Lagarde have said the ceiling should be raised, possibly up to 1 trillion euros, so it has more than enough capacity to handle any problems in major economies such as Spain or Italy.

The Financial Times reported on Monday that German Chancellor Angela Merkel was ready to see the ceiling of the combined firewall raised to 750 billion euros in exchange for agreement on tighter euro zone budget rules, but the report was immediately denied by her chief spokesman.

"It is not true. There is no such decision," Steffen Seibert told Reuters.

Monti told reporters after Monday's meeting that no conclusions had been reached on the ESM, which all 17 euro zone countries must back in a new treaty. Officials said the details would have to be finalised by an EU summit on January 30.

It was a similar situation for the "fiscal compact", which also involves a new treaty and which EU leaders are expected to agree at the summit next week.

"We have had an extremely constructive meeting on the fiscal compact and this text is a good basis for the discussions for the heads of government at the end of the month," said Juncker, sidestepping concerns about the text raised by the European Central Bank.

DEBT SUSTAINABILITY

Despite the continued deep differences, Greece and its private creditors do appear to be slowly converging on a deal in which private bondholders would take a real loss of 65 to 70 percent on their Greek bonds - giving a nominal reduction of 50 percent - officials close to the negotiations say.

Sources close to the talks told Reuters on Monday that the impasse centred on questions of whether the deal would return Greece's debt mountain, currently over 350 billion euros, to levels that European governments believe are sustainable.

"There will likely be an updated debt sustainability analysis that will be discussed at the Eurogroup," a banking source in Athens said, requesting anonymity. "Talks will continue this week. The aim is to have an agreement by late next Monday."

Speaking in Berlin, Lagarde called on European leaders to complement the "fiscal compact" they agreed last month with some form of financial risk-sharing, mentioning euro zone bonds or bills, or a debt redemption fund as possible options.

Merkel told a news conference it was not the time to debate an increase in the euro zone's bailout funds.

"I don't think it is right to do one new thing then do another, let's get the ESM working," Merkel said, reiterating that Germany was prepared to accelerate the flow of capital into the ESM ahead of its planned introduction in mid-2012.

Euro zone leaders agreed in October that the second bailout would total 130 billion euros, if private bondholders forgave half of what Greece owes them in nominal terms.

But Greek economic prospects have deteriorated since then, which means either euro zone governments or investors will have to contribute more than thought.

(Additional reporting by Stephen Brown and Alexandra Hudson in Berlin, Leigh Thomas in Paris, Lefteris Papadimas and Ingrid Melander in Athens; Writing by Noah Barkin and Luke Baker, editing by Mike Peacock/Jeremy Gaunt/Rex Merrifield)

just added at 5751

a reasonable call, but watch Dow if it gets to 12940 as that could easily trigger some fairly heavy profit taking (shorting) which will spill over to ftse

12940 ! my lord! its a huge number!.. this is not going that high... i think us market tops yesterday.. vix is oversold below 20 for too long.. market is loosing buyers

5751.9 :-))

interesting thoughts dow cynic 12668.25 fine with me

tomasz - no it's not; it's a rise of <300 points

You boys near london need some cheap fuel???.,. diesel but only in red :))

my tart's car doesn't run on diesel!

What about the wife's??

red diesel - i might change balerboy to del boy!! you dont run around in a clapped out yellow 3 wheeler do you? i can supply some water damaged umbrellas if any use to you?? :-))))

http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://www.liftruck.co.uk/images/oldcars/reliant-del-boy-trotter-van.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.liftruck.co.uk/reliant-supervan-mk111.htm&h=480&w=640&sz=88&tbnid=js-ouOerW-mbNM:&tbnh=90&tbnw=120&prev=/search%3Fq%3Ddel%2Bboy%2Btrotter%26tbm%3Disch%26tbo%3Du&zoom=1&q=del+boy+trotter&docid=KRoa1sZDGH_s8M&hl=en&sa=X&ei=FyEfT9qwMJOf8gO51qGTDg&sqi=2&ved=0CEIQ9QEwBA&dur=125

have a good evening all

nor Beloved's mini cooper!

more importantly, AAPL has stampeded after hours on their results (glad i hold those) and that will assuredly be good for london tomorrow