rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

I'm confused, market going up in a recession?

markets always look forward at least 6 months, so the perception is that both US and UK will be faring considerably better towards the end of 2012

US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 2.1% v consensus 0.9% previous 0.3%

US Unemployment Claims 377k v consensus 371k previous 352k

US Durable Goods Orders m/m 3.0% v consensus 2.1% previous 3.7%

keaydian, agree, market is nuts here and greedy at his best chasing itself in a self fulfilling rally...but volume getting lower and lower..

Today's stats.

US Advance GDP q/q 2.8% v consensus 3.0% previous 1.8%

EU Delays Bank Bond Writedown Plan Until Debt Crisis Abates
Jan 27, 2012 10:03 AM GMT .

Michel Barnier, the European Union’s financial services chief, said he’ll wait until the region is “past the worst” of its fiscal crisis before unleashing proposals to write down creditors at failing banks.

“We have to get past the worst of this crisis to present this proposal at the right moment,” the European Commissioner said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. That may be in “some weeks, or rather some months.”

Global regulators have called for rules imposing losses on bank creditors in a bid to prevent lenders being too-big-to- fail. The Financial Stability Board said so-called bail-in systems should be put in place for all international banks.

Lenders including Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) have warned that writedowns for senior bondholders may make it more expensive for banks to attract funding.

“I want to avoid any misunderstanding,” said Barnier about his plans designed to prevent taxpayers footing the bill for bailing out failing banks “in the medium to long term.”

Barnier said that he’s still making up his mind on plans by Deutsche Boerse AG (DB1) and NYSE Euronext (NRX) to create the world’s largest exchange. He said he’s been unable to give his full attention to the dossier because of an official trip last week to Asia.

The commission, the 27-nation EU’s executive arm, will decide next week whether to back a proposal from the EU’s antitrust chief, Joaquin Almunia, to block the deal.

‘Personal Time’
“It’s a very important decision,” Barnier said. “I need a bit of personal time to work on this dossier and to make a judgement.”

Barnier said that he’s considering tougher EU rules for bank bonuses after criticizing some payouts as “inexplicable.”

One possible idea is a pay ratio designed to limit the difference between the highest and lowest salaries at lenders, he said.

Barnier, a former French minister, said that he will also seek views “in the coming weeks” on possible rules for so- called shadow banks, and called for leaders at Davos to back a global financial transactions tax.

‘Volcker Rule’
Separately, Barnier will next month raise “concerns” with U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner on how a proposed ban on commercial banks trading on their own account may discriminate against European sovereign debt.

Under the proposals for the so-called Volcker rule, trading in U.S. government bonds would be exempt from the ban and this carve-out wouldn’t be extended to other nations’ sovereign debt, said Barnier’s spokeswomanChantal Hughes.

The commissioner will discuss the matter with Geithner during a trip to the U.S. on Feb. 23-24, Hughes said in an e- mail.

The commission has set up an EU high-level group to examine possible measures to change banks’ structure and reign in their risk taking. The committee’s remit will include examining whether a version of the Volcker rule should be imposed on EU leaders, Barnier said.

Today's Market Overview

FTSE 100 DOW S&P 500
5,724 71.70 / -1.24% 12,660 74.17 / -0.58% 1,316 2.10 / -0.16%
GMT 08:00 Jan 30 2012 GMT 21:04 Jan 27 2012 GMT 21:32 Jan 27 2012

Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2% v consensus 0.1% previous 0.1%

Personal Spending m/m 0.0% v consensus 0.2% previous 0.1%

Personal Income m/m 0.5% v consensus 0.4% previous 0.1%

Sarkozy Says France to Tax Financial Transactions From August
Jan 30, 2012 8:28 AM GMT .

French President Nicolas Sarkozy during a press conference at the Moncloa Palace in Madrid. Photographer: Pablo Blazquez Dominguez/Getty Images

France plans to unilaterally impose a 0.1 percent tax on financial transactions starting in August, President Nicolas Sarkozy said, brushing aside opposition from the nation’s banks.

“What we want to do is provoke a shock, to set an example,” Sarkozy said late yesterday on French television from Paris. “There’s no reason why deregulated finance, which brought us to the current situation, can’t participate in the restoration of our accounts.”

A France-only levy is opposed by the country’s financial community and its feasibility has been questioned by the Bank of France. It has become a political challenge for the president, who faces elections in a two-round vote in April and May and wants to make good on a pledge he made to impose such a tax when France last year held the presidency of both the G-8 and G-20 group of countries.

The European Commission in September suggested a tax of 0.1 percent on equity and bond transactions and 0.01 percent on derivatives, which it said could raise 55 billion euros ($71 billion) a year. European Union finance ministers are due to discuss the levy in March.

The financial transactions tax is among measures Sarkozy unveiled to shrink the French budget deficit and spur growth. He’s also increasing sales taxes and levies on financial incomes to fund a 13 billion-euro cut in payroll charges aimed at reducing labor costs and making France more competitive.

Bank Shares
The French government, long a proponent of the transaction tax, stepped up its campaign this month, saying it would impose the levy even if others didn’t. Sarkozy said he expects revenue of 1 billion euros from the tax “that will go toward cutting the deficit.”

Shares of France’s three biggest banks tumbled. BNP Paribas SA (BNP) slid as much as 4.1 percent, trading 3.4 percent lower at 33.45 euros as of 9:08 a.m. in Paris. Societe Generale SA fell as much as 4.3 percent to 20.17 euros, while Credit Agricole SA declined as much as 2.7 percent to 4.8 euros.

Jean-Pierre Jouyet, president of the Autorite des Marches Financiers, France’s financial regulator, said last week that the tax on transactions advocated by Sarkozy would weaken the country’s position in the asset-management industry by pushing professionals and transactions elsewhere.

Sarkozy said yesterday that his government has found a way to keep financial jobs in France and tax transactions related to the country even if they happen elsewhere, pointing to trades in credit default swaps as an example. He didn’t give details.

Negative Impact
“CDSs, which are speculative instruments against sovereign debt, will be taxed and online speculative purchases will be taxed,” he said.

The tax will apply to share purchases, including high frequency trading, and CDS transactions. Unlike the European Commission proposal, it will not apply to bond trading.

Ernst & Young, an accounting company, has said in a report that while an EU transaction tax itself may raise as much as 37 billion euros, its net effect could be negative by between 2 billion euros and 116 billion euros by decreasing economic activity and reducing revenue from other taxes.

The U.S. opposes taxes on transactions, preferring bank levies based on the size of their balance sheets.

The U.K., home to Europe’s biggest financial center, has also opposed the tax as it is currently proposed. Prime Minister David Cameron said Jan. 26 that a Europe-wide transaction tax would be “madness,” saying it would cost 500,000 jobs.

Stamp Duty
Germany is considering a plan for a form of European stamp duty on shares linked to tougher trading rules as an alternative to a financial-transaction tax, in an effort to win over the U.K. to adopting European Union-wide levy.

Investors buying U.K. shares pay a tax of 0.5 percent on the price. The stamp duty is also levied on options to buy shares and rights arising from shares. It is not levied on foreign shares. Stamp duty on shares raised 3 billion pounds ($4.7 billion) in the year to April 2010, according to the government.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats and their Free Democratic Party allies may be coalescing around an FDP proposal for a Europe-wide tax along the lines of the U.K.’s levy on shares. Such a solution is a “good option” if accompanied by rules that limit “abusive excesses” in automated trading, the Free Democrats have said in a paper drafted by former Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle.

The French financial industry has spoken out against imposing a transaction tax unilaterally in France.

`Heavy Handicap'
“A tax that’s limited to France would weigh on growth, lead to a loss of competitiveness, and create a heavy handicap for the financing of the French economy,” the French Banking Federation said in a statement Jan. 9.

Socialist candidate Francois Hollande leads in the French presidential election polls. He has the support of 31 percent of voters in the first round, 6 points more than Sarkozy, and his second-round lead has risen to 20 points at 60 percent, according to a CSA poll published last week. Hollande, too, has pledged to impose a tax on financial transactions, if he’s elected.

more taxation again and again...economy killers

.

EUR unemployment rate 10.4% v consensus 10.4% previous 10.3%

Is that important?
The pressure on Italy and Greece should have pushed it to 11%. The numbers are good, given the situation over last few months.

MAM says disappointing economic numbers from China
oh really?????????
FT says surprisingly strong start to year for manufacturing in China
who would you choose to believe?

Cynic - hope this helps :-) China export and import demand dips amid global fears

The demand for Chinese exports fell in January as global economic uncertainty continued to hurt consumer confidence.

Latest government data showed China's new export order index fell to 46.9 from 48.6 in the previous month.

The imports index also dropped to 46.9 from 49.3 in December, showing that domestic demand was slowing.

The data comes amid concerns over the impact of a global slowdown on China's economy.

Manufacturing PMI 52.1 v consensus 50.1 previous 49.6

Intraday triple top on the FTSE - also looks like it may form one on the daily.

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 170K v consensus 189K previous 325K

(Reuters) - Greece's private sector creditors could take a loss of more than 70 percent in a planned debt swap, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said on Tuesday.

"There is a very serious discussion based on new facts. We are talking about a PSI much greater than the original," he told lawmakers, referring to private sector involvement in the deal.

"We are talking about a haircut on the net present value exceeding 70 percent," he said.

ooops!