Petrel Resources (PET.L) the Irish based oil exploration company is likely to set the blood racing through your veins at a pace. Petrel Resources established in the early 1980s has a duel listing on the Irish and London stock exchanges. The Company moved from Londons Ofex Market to the LSEs AIM in August 2000. Its major interest is in war torn Iraq. Headed by 43 year old David Horgan who strongly opposed the war in Iraq. Opportunities arose for Petrel with the imposition of sanctions but there was no legal way to conduct much serious work until the UN oil for food program in 1997.
Horgan, the oil executive freely admits that he is in the bombed-out country "for greed and glory." His goal is a mammoth oil deal for the small Irish company he works for, a little more truthful than western governments one may think.
Petrel has access to some seismic information that would make an oilman's nose twitch. These include the Sedementology of the Euphrates Formation and Floraminera and Biostratratology of Some Late Cretacean Sediment of Northern Iraq. All data and maps of these area`s were closely guarded military secrets. The fact that Horgan takes this data back to Ireland for further analysis is astonishing.
The company raised c1m from a share placing to finance the development of oil fields in Iraq last November. Petrel. Private investor Douglas Wright, who owns c2% of the company, estimates the shares could be worth 10 each. Thats some mark up at todays 36p.
This tiny 15m cap company has been in Iraq well ahead of any other western oil company, amassing a wealth of drilling, seismic data. Petrel has developed an excellent working relationship with the Iraq authorities before and after the invasion. Commenting on the potential awaiting his company, Horgan says he will be satisfied with even crumbs. "A crumb in Iraq," he says eagerly, "would be hundreds of millions of dollars at present value. It is high risk, in every sense, but it is an excellent play." Horgan, hopes his company will able to develop three fields in Kirkuk in the north, Hamrin in central Iraq and the Subba and Luhais fields to the south of the country. Petrel also has rights to prospect in the deserts to the west of Baghdad.
February 18 Petrel announced that it intends to put out tenders by the end of March, the second in the middle of April, and the third in the middle of May. Officials say they will decide within a matter of weeks, but nothing happens that quickly in the Middle East. Within about two months following each tender submited we anticipate decision, because the overwhelming priority for Iraqi authorities is to generate revenue. Without oil revenue, there is nothing. Horgan estimates the company has a 1 in 3 chance of gaining approval for at least one of the tenders.
Horgan is no newcomer to Iraq. He has the experience in dealing with the administration of Saddam Hussein. Dealing with a western administration will be a far more comfortable. However, he is willing to do business with whoever comes next, even a US puppet, as he believes it will be.
New exploration of Iraq's untapped fields is at a virtual standstill; the repair of the old fields has been notoriously slow. His first priority is to get the oil flowing. There is no guarantee that Petrel will be successful with its tendering. However, they are a better bet than some given that they have had their feet under the Iraq table since 1978.
It is unclear whether any existing contracts would be recognized by a new regime. In addition, if U.S. and British companies also are in the game, Petrel could be out of luck. However, Petrel has an all-important head start..data. So, one can assume that even the big boys will need Petrels help. Another important advantage for Petrel, is the experience with negotiating with the Iraq Oil Administration, who will have a hand in any issuing of contracts, even if the western governments are pulling strings. In any event, the expected stampede of western oil giants stamping through Iraqs oil rich fields has not come to pass as widely predicted. The main reason for this is the obvious danger to western companies. This is clearly a prize advantage to Petrel.
The Exxons and the Shells and BPs rightly don` have the stomach todeal with the physical risk to their executives. Horgan is one of the few Western oilmen to be found in Iraq who is seen as friendly. An even more significant reason the big boys from the oil industry are staying clear is the legal black hole into which they'd be stepping. After all, until there is a legitimate sovereign government in Iraq, it is unclear whether any new long-term oil exploration. That means most of that untouched oil underneath the desert sand is off-limits--and all the oil giants can only stare, like alcoholics looking at liquor bottles in a shuttered shop. No one, at present, has the shop keys.
In the last three or four years, most of the world's oil companies have either visited Iraq or opened offices or had representatives there. They have no choice given that Iraqi oil is miraculously cheap to pump out of the ground, costing about a dollar a barrel. The chief wells are to the North, near Kirkuk, where sabotage keeps production down, and to the South, near Basra. The Western Desert offers untold riches.
Petrel reached an agreement under Saddam to explore a chunk of the Western Desert known as Block 6. A high-ranking Iraqi official he says, signed it, although, crucially, it was not ratified by Saddam Hussein. "We think it's a valid agreement," he insists. Iraq's current American rulers are studiously noncommittal about contracts signed under Saddam. For to understand Iraqi oil development, it's clear that there is not just the one Iraqi Oil Ministry but a parallel "shadow" ministry run by American advisers.
"We've done some very good work, but we can't compete with the multinationals," said Petrel Chairman John Teeling. "They'll crunch us and jump on us as much as they can."
The reason: Only Saudi Arabia has more oil than Iraq. Iraq's proven reserves total about 112 billion barrels, and industry experts figure as many as 250 billion more await discovery. To develop the proven reserves to their full potential over the next 10 years or so will cost as much as $40 billion, according to think tanks and petroleum consultants.
Iraq is regarded as the most attractive place to produce oil, with vast reserves and low production costs. "No mineral has better economics than oil and no country has better oil economics than Iraq. To put this in to perspective, Only 2,300 oil wells have been drilled in Iraq compared to a million in Texas, but those wells generate about 12-15 percent of the worlds proven reserves. Eight in every 10 wells drilled in Iraq have struck oil; in Saudi Arabia the success rate is less than half. Some prize! Each of these is multibillion-barrel fields and each of them has very large multibillion-barrel potential at greater depths. That is the real prize here. You could clear a net present value of $30 million or more in each of these cash contracts, but the reason why oil companies have been working so hard for so long is the ability to add reserves. These are certainly multibillion barrel and there are not many structures this straightforward anywhere in the world that comes even close.
Something to think about for those of you with nerves of steel. The risk reward is high. Some of you would rather roll the dice. I do not hold any as yet. I do expect this to change soon. I will of course keep you posted on this front.
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