Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - China's first quarter economic growth surprised on the upside, but despite investment also pouring in at a faster clip, the relatively stable increases in the consumer price index (CPI), the chief barometer of inflation, were still manageable and helping ease worries of economic overheating on a national level, said Huang Yiping, economist with Citigroup in Hong Kong.

China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerated 11.1 pct year-on-year to 5.03 trln yuan in the first three months, compared with 10.4 pct in the fourth quarter and 10.7 pct in 2006, the National Bureau of Statistics said.

'Most people were expecting something in the mid-tens, and our forecast was 10.7. It's not that significantly far from our number, but psychologically it's above 11 pct, and it could be an important surprise,' Huang told XFN-Asia.

The People's Bank of China had projected first quarter GDP growth of 10.2 pct.

The strong growth figure comes despite tightening measures taken by Beijing, but Huang doubted the central bank would take imminent actions to tighten liquidity.

'I think (monetary authorities) will act, although I doubt they will take immediate action as some are expecting at the moment, but they have already done quite a lot and I think the message is already quite clear in the market,' he said.

When asked if another upward interest rate revision was likely in the first half, he said it was a strong possibility.

'I see one more rate hike. The Chinese like 27 basis points (as a incremental hike),' Huang said.

But he said interest rates would not rise too high anytime soon as inflation was still rising at a reasonable rate.

'If inflation isn't an issue, then why worry about the 11.1 pct GDP growth? But (inflation) has been picking up pace recently. We had 2.7 pct for the first quarter, which could mean that for March it's around 3.2 pct. At that's been picking up quite quickly from 2.7 pct in February,' he said.

He said the main challenge for macroeconomic planners in fostering stable, sustainable economic growth was 'more about the need to control risks in the economy.'

'At the same time the authorities are still probably keen to maintain strong growth. So the difficulty is to find and strike a balance between the two. But you still need strong growth.'

When asked if government planners were happy with continued uneven economic growth between urban and rural regions, and between coastal and inland provinces, he said it remained a lingering concern.

'They are probably not, but at the moment there is no other choice. They always want to balance sources of growth, but in the near term I think for macroeconomic policy makers, I think the top concern should be whether or not that will lead to over-investment or overcapacity,' Huang said.

(1 usd = 7.72 yuan)

Calendar updated as three gifs because I'm using an evaluation copy of some conversion software -- which also explains the spurious exhortations to "purchase" of the left of the gifs . . . must give them the money . . .

Haven't posted much recently, manily cos its such a quite thread generally. Following a good start to my FX trading about a month ago suffered a really bad week when I managed to give up all of my gains plus an awful lot more. It's times like that when you really have to have a good think and work out what went wrong. My conclusions were quite simple; it isn't that I don't understand the mechanics of what drives the FX market, nor is it a lack of TA understanding. Quite simply it came down to discipline and understanding my own trading style.

Anyway I gave myself a good talking to and rather than trying to run big positions, I looked for intraday opportunities where I could trade in, trade out with a minimum of fuss and risk. On the whole it has worked, I often settle for 10, 15 or 20 pips, but two or three times a day it builds up nicely.

The proof is in the pudding (or in the bank) Friday I was able to withdraw money from my trading account rather than topping it up. Hopefully I'll be able to continue in that vein.

I will start posting charts if anyone is interested, I just need to find somewhere to 'host' them.

Harlosh, hope you are ok btw, must get together for another drink soon :)

pth

Was away playing Golf when it reached the magical 50p $ so a bit miffed I didn't get any of it. Mind you, I got minced by trying to short it just before I went so very pleased I was stopped out (although it was a hefty loss - it could have been ginormous).

Like you pt - have been having a good hard look at my trading style/methods and, when intermittent day jobbie type stuff doesn't get in the way I will be back using my new, superduper technique which, funnily enough, involves scalping points rather than looking at the "big bang".

Currently trying to scalp a few - long from 19975 - but longer term will probably be short - all the longer term charts seem to scream it

Closed for 30 points
[EDIT - obviously way too soon :( - but am I bovvered??]

my "guru" still reckons 2.07 will be hit before true longer term strengthening of $ ..... that said, there are bound to jumps back and forth ..... for no real logical reason, suspect will look for +/-1.97 before selling our June $

cynic
So, your guru says 20700 - another 700 points to go.

Hmmmmmmmm, interesting.

mg

Overnight or tomorrow will likely prove me wrong. But...........I'm not sure this is ready to short yet. The last 4-5 days has seen it working off its 'over-boughtness' and is consolidating quite nicely without shedding too many pips. I find it hard to believe that having spent all this time reaching the magical figure it is going to drop back in a hurry. Additionally, I think it will have another go at 20150 and possibly beyond. After this pregnant paws, whatever it does next will likely be in a rush. If it does continue to dip slowly, my chart offers support at 19985 & 19950.

Anyone trading usa/cad?

Managed to get that sorted out eventually, phew.

Certainly been something of a day on Cable. Found support at 19950 and I must admit I didn't think it was going to get back through 20000 in a hurry, but then it generally proves me wrong!

The rising trend line offers support just above 20000 now and the previous support at 19950 is currently at 19965 and rising. MACD is turning up also on the 2hrly.

Dare I say it's beginning to look like a long again?

pth

I'm long. Usually bad news when I take a position :-)

Goforit

No, but I did a chart anyway :)

Oh he's on a roll ;)

AUD :)

Nicole Elliott, Mizuho Corporate Bank, on Cable:

"Continues to consolidate surprisingly neatly in a 'flag' formation. This should allow us to get used to trading with a $2 handle yet futures positions are well below December's record. The pound is no longer overbought and bullish momentum is strong. Attempt small longs at $2.0025 but be prepared to add to $1.9900; stop well below $1.9800. Short term target $2.0100 and $2.0500 medium term."

Took +34 from an overnight long before breakfast, now flat and will see what the day brings.

Don't know if anyone traded this today (Goforit?) but bounced in a smart fashion off the top of the channel :)

Err, I didn't!

Nice one SC. Was quite keen to open a long position at 20010, but I tend not to sleep very well when I'm in the market overnight.
Have managed +57 during the day, but unfortunately a mis-timed long that turned rather nasty for a while prevented me from risking additional funds; thankfully it worked out ok in the end :)

pth

pth - its a nice pair to trade on the pullback at the moment. I feel that in the last year or so I have become too fixated on cable. There are alot of things( including some indices)that are trending very well at the moment. Spent the last couple months(in between skiing etc) learning to use fibonacci on pullbacks, and applied to strongly trending fx or whatever its starting to work well for me! It has certainly added another way to trade and am starting to take aslightly longer timeframe to trade in. I think its called "planning the trade, then trading the plan" - for me it helps to take the emotion out of trading. I set my stoplosses, and put in my targets, and then get on with looking for the next trade rather than watching every tick of one trade.
USD/CAD( AUD) has trended well for over a month, big question is for how much longer. Sell the rallies and buy the drops!