Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

missed it but thanks how high do you think it will go

grrrrrrr went long 1.8026, closed at 1.8040 - went out & now look!

Ah well.

just got back in - been out for a haircut !
well done - yet again.
i got greedy and wanted 179.99 again


are we having the four-poster ?

Dave,

I'm not sure and I'm reluctant to offer advice because I'm aware that emotion plays a large part in trading and my objectives will doubtless be different to others. Normally, when the price breaks a falling resistance line you're talking of an up-leg lasting over several days (just the same as the down-leg has lasted 3/4 days).

If you live on your nerves, it might be sensible to set your stop just under a consolidation low. If you're a little more relaxed then maybe set your stop at entry for break even. If you've got balls of steel then set your stop at today's low for a potential loss.

Beebs,

I don't know what type of bed it is. I wasn't planning to do a lot of sleeping.

:o)

Btw. 18155 was perceived as a resistance level today.

Thinking about it, I'm going to run a tight stop because i) it's Friday, ii) it's been a good week and iii) I'll be happy to bank and go into the weekend flat.

thanks hilary, target of 18240,entered 160 then 180 but banked spme profit at 205,seams to be log jammed @190/215 wats your view oh wise one

Dave,

I'm out now. Will just stayed sidelined for now looking for a clear pattern to develop. Playing the bull tack is certainly slower than the bear tack at the moment.

Update Time: Hong Kong 07:30 London 23:30 New York 18:30



FX Analyst - Pro Commentary - March 26th

GBPUSD

Price: 1.8060
Day View
Resistance: 1.8085 1.8115 1.8140 1.8155

Support: 1.8040 1.8025 1.7990 1.7965



Bias: Favor choppy consolidation today

Bullish: Further aggressive losses yesterday hardly support a bullish stance. However, with the decline having reached the prior downtrend channel high we feel there is room for a correction from here. Watch the 1.8040 support carefully - we feel this could hold. Further support is at 1.7990-1.8005. From this next corrective low we suspect we should see a choppy rally back higher again. First sign is a break above 1.8085 and this would then cause a test of 1.8115 and should rally back to 1.8155.



Bearish: Yesterday's losses were once again very aggressive. However, having tested the prior downtrend channel high we are reluctant to look for a further move lower today. Maximum downside is at 1.7990-1.8005 although a higher support at 1.8040 may well hold. Thus a bearish stance is only suggested on a break of 1.7990 and if seen would spur further losses down to 1.7965 at least and we suspect further towards 1.7904 and 1.7860.





Week View
Resistance: 1.8155 1.8225 1.8330 1.8405

Support: 1.7965 1.7904 1.7860 1.7820



Continued losses have been seen below the 4-hour Pivot Cloud which suggest resumption of the downtrend. Schaff Trend Cycle has remained at zero with FXS-RSI confirming the bearish divergence and has declined into oversold territory. Clearly the prior downtrend channel is the stalling area for any downside pressure and this may cause a pullback but overall the outlook does seem further bearish.



Bullish: The losses bit deeper than expected reaching 1.7988 but held the prior downtrend channel high. While we do feel this should provide a few days of corrective price activity we cannot consider a bullish scenario until key resistance at 1.8155 and then 1.8225 is broken. On this break we would then look for a rally back to the pivot resistance at 1.8405. Further resistance is seen at 1.8330.



Bearish: Losses have been slightly stronger than expected but given the support provided by the prior downtrend channel high we feel there could be a lull in the downward move in favor of a short period of corrective price activity before the next leg lower. Thus only a direct break of 1.7988 would see price dip to 1.7930 minimum. In the medium term we look for price to continue to 1.7860 at least and lower later.



Month View
(Updated 22nd February)

Resistance: 1.8875 1.9025 1.9140 1.9305

Support: 1.8520 1.8205 1.8020 1.7820



We were rather disappointed by the break back above 1.8577 but now consider the 1.9140 high seen last week as a probable key peak and look for losses to develop over the coming months. These should break below 1.8520 and 1.8205 en route the 1.7820 corrective low at least.

me too got bored and thought it might go lower now waiting to see

sorry darling, lots of distractions this morning,
but focused and ready for action now............


no, you naughty girl, not that kind of action,
well, not on here anyway...

watching for 182.25 up - it's had one go and failed,
seems to be back in line with euro today

still kicking myself for being greedy this morning -
was only 10 points adrift

Shame, Beebs, looks like I'll have to take my husband instead.

:o)

One of the problems with charts, is that it's easy to look back retrospectively and say "Ah yes, that's the high and that's the low." It's not always so easy at the time. This morning, for instance, it appeared to me that the Cable was breaking the resistance line to the 3/4 day downtrend. As the day has progressed, I'm now not so sure that this is in fact the case. The movement earlier today was news driven on the Ifo data, and I'm inclined now to discount the price action in my interpretation of the charts. My current line of thought is that the downtrend is possibly still intact and we could see a move below the 18000 early next week.

We'll see. Michigan in a minute so let's see if that has an effect.

hmmmmm, was looking for a wee short as well,
think it's a trifle overdone to the up side,
but my greed again - waiting for 182 and a bit
could mean i'm just going to be watching...


is he bigger than me ?

Don't know. Are you bigger than 10"?

:o)

much, much bigger.

threatening 182.00 prob on mich sent figs
waiting still

Beebs,

It's quality, not quantity that's important.

Have a good weekend. I'm off now. Running a short over the weekend. Stop on the day's high, open limit.

have a good one hilly baby
cu nxt wk

Thanks for the calendar posting, Hilary. That's very useful.

Does anyone else see a head and shoulders pattern forming on the Cable chart?

There is a very interesting article in the Weekend FT Money Guide section about technical analysis of the Euro/Dollar showing the behaviour of RSI during the recent peak. Also, this month's Traders' Magazine has some good articles on currency trading.

Doug

Doug -- and I just cancelled my sub to the weekend FT because I never found time to read it. Bummer.

D.