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The article ties in with what I am thinking and have said, that a final offer should be around the 400p levels. The timing is the problem, it could be early, mid or late in 2007......
December 22, 2006
An Early Christmas Turkey From Monterrico Metals And Its Advisers
As Charles Kernot, the highly respected mining analyst at brokers Seymour Pierce, points out the announcement put out today by Monterrico Metals is mighty strange in its timing. Half the population is trying to get to its Christmas destination in the fog and the other half is either shopping or in the boozer. Whichever corporate financier insisted that such a press release be sent out today has clearly taken leave of the last vestiges of common sense.
From here one can almost hear him mouthing the words sensitive information. Yes ducky, confirmation that Monterrico has received an indicative proposal from a party interested in making an offer for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of the company at a modest premium to the closing middle market share price on 21 December 2006 of 257.5 pence is indeed sensitive information. But the point about releasing sensitive information is to ensure that as many shareholders as possible are fully informed about company developments at the same time. Might it not have been rather more sensible to have made the announcement when everyone reassembles after Christmas and the New Year instead of bang in the middle of pre-Christmas chaos?
Mr Kernot puts it rather more politely, pointing out that as so few people are in their offices and looking at their screens, his firm plans to re-send the announcement in the New Year to ensure it is not missed by investors. Not that it actually amounts to much if read carefully. This announcement is being made without the agreement or approval of the potential offeror. This announcement does not amount to a firm intention by any party to make an offer for Monterrico. Accordingly, there can be no certainty that any offer will be forthcoming, even if the pre-conditions are satisfied or waived, nor as to the terms on which any offer might be made. Not a lot to get excited about there and another announcement is going to be made in January, anyway.
The whole episode has left Seymour Pierce very unimpressed as they say they are concerned that Monterrico is spending an inordinate amount of time working with a potential offeror that is only willing to pay a modest premium to 257.5p. As they point out, it is really only a sighting shot and recent bids in the sector have seen these being trumped handsomely in final offers . The brokers therefore remain very firmly of the view that a level of 400p/share is a realistic prospect for the company over the next six or so months. Good news for shareholders in Monterrico, but will they have read it?
John Meyer at Numis Securities thinks along the same lines and points out that at least 20 mining companies have reviewed the project in recent years indicating that there is considerable interest in the potential acquisition of the business. Political, local and social considerations have almost certainly have held back interest from third parties for Monterricos Rio Blanco project, but Chinese smelters are reported to be desperate to sign up supplies of copper concentrate. After all this is not just another copper project. According to Meyer, Rio Blanco is a world-class scale copper porphyry deposit and is very similar to Antofagastas Los Pelambres copper project which is also in Peru.
He expects other offers in the New Year as third parties assess the just received, detailed feasibility study. This study should confirm for third parties a number of cost and technical issues and can then be used to form the basis of the companys application for environmental permits and a subsequent licence to mine. The fat lady has not even got to the theatre yet, let alone started to climb on the stage.