Company is the worlds largest diversified resources group. It has seven divisions: Petroleum, Aluminium, Base Metals, Carbon Steel materials, Diamonds and speciality products, Energy coal and Stainless steel materials.

            Red = 25 day moving average.           Green = 200 day moving average.

SALES PER ACTIVITY (Data as of 30/06/2006)

Carbon steel:   28%
Oil:                18%
Aluminum:       15%
Basic metals:   15%
Coal:               9%
Stainless steel: 9%
:                    3%
Diamonds,
minerals, etc:   3%

of the major mining companies, this is definitely my fave
however, though it is a low cost ore producer, the current slowdown in china remains a major concern

Deutsche Bank reiterates buy on BHP Billiton, target cut from 2500p to 2400p.

Deutsche more optimistic than the rest, it seems:


29 Oct Credit Suisse 2,000.00 Neutral
28 Oct Credit Suisse 2,000.00 Neutral
28 Oct Jefferies... 1,700.00 Hold
28 Oct JP Morgan... N/A Neutral
28 Oct Charles Stanley N/A Accumulate

BLT Interesting. Right on a Support line going back to Aug 2012. Res levels 2100p and 2200p. Had a dabble. Ex Hedge fund manager at weekend was saying this is the next FTSE 100 LEADER along with BP....?

of the mining stocks, this has long been my fave ..... don't hold at the moment, but shall have another look

personally, i would go near bp .... as an individual stock, it seems to be stumbling from one disaster to another, and oil stocks in general are well (bad pun!) out of favour

Yep this guy runs this site and makes some very good calls.

He always buys down and out stock.

http://www.financialorbit.com/

Operational Review Half Year Ended 31 Dec 2014

BHP BILLITON OPERATIONAL REVIEW FOR THE HALF YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2014

- Group production increased by 9% during the December 2014 half year with records achieved for eight operations and five commodities. Production guidance remains unchanged and we are on track to deliver Group production growth of 16% over the two years to the end of the 2015 financial year.

- Metallurgical coal production increased by 21% to 26 Mt in the December 2014 half year as Queensland Coal and Illawarra Coal both achieved record half year volumes.

- Western Australia Iron Ore production increased by 15% to a record of 124 Mt (100% basis) in the December 2014 half year as the ramp-up of Jimblebar continued and we improved the availability, utilisation and rate of our integrated supply chain.

- Petroleum production increased by 9% to a record 131 MMboe in the December 2014 half year supported by a 71% increase in Onshore US liquids volumes to 24.4 MMboe.

- Copper production (1) decreased by 2% to 813 kt as strong underlying operating performance across the business was offset by lower grades at Antamina.

- Record manganese ore and alumina production was underpinned by strong performances at both Hotazel and the Alumar refinery.

BHP BILLITON RESULTS FOR THE HALF YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2014


§ The tragic loss of two of our colleagues is a stark reminder that the health and safety of our people must always come first.

§ Underlying EBIT(1) of US$9.2 billion and an Underlying EBIT margin(2) of 32% for the December 2014 half year results demonstrate the strength of BHP Billiton's strategy and the resilience of our portfolio in weaker markets.

§ Improved productivity and reduced capital expenditure allowed us to generate US$4.1 billion of free cash flow(2) and strengthen the balance sheet despite lower prices.

§ We are extending our productivity gains faster than initially anticipated with US$2.4 billion(3) achieved in the period. We expect over US$4.0 billion of productivity gains by the end of the 2017 financial year(4).

§ Our cost competitiveness continues to improve in all our major businesses, with unit cash costs reduced by 29% Western Australia Iron Ore, 15% at Queensland Coal, 13% at Escondida and 8% at Onshore US.

§ We reduced capital and exploration expenditure(5) by 23% to US$6.4 billion in the half year and plan to invest a total of US$12.6 billion in the 2015 financial year and US$10.8 billion in the 2016 financial year.

§ We will remain disciplined. Our plans are flexible and we continue to expect an average investment return(6) of greater than 20% for our portfolio of high-quality development options.

§ Our balance sheet is strong. Net debt(2) at period end fell to US$24.9 billion for a gearing ratio of 22.4% and our A+ credit rating was recently reaffirmed.

§ The Group's interim dividend increased by 5% to 62 US cents per share, representing and Underlying payout ratio(7) of 62%.

§ Should the proposed demerger of South32 be approved, we do not plan to rebase our progressive dividend downwards, implying a higher underlying payout ratio, and South32 will adopt its own dividend policy.

CitiBank summary:
"BHP Downgrade to Neutral — Diversity has previously saved BHP, but we are bearish on the 3 biggest earnings drivers in iron ore, coking coal and oil. With net debt rising in FY15 & 16, and rising further after South32 demerger, we expect further cuts to capex will likely be required. We downgrade BHP to Neutral, previously Buy."

StockMarketWire.com
Equity research analysts at Goldman Sachs have moved to a 'neutral' rating (from 'conviction buy') on mining group BHP Billiton (LON:BLT), stating that it sees limited catalysts for the stock in the near future.

The City heavyweight added: "Our reasons for downgrade are threefold: 1) our commodities team downgrade of iron ore implies BHP's average earnings (EBITDA) for 2015-17E fall by 7%. 2) On our commodity price deck we believe BHP will not be able to cover its dividend from FCF (FY16/17E dividend yield is forecast to be 6.3%/6.7% while FCF yield is 2.9%/4.9%). And 3) South32 catalyst played out."

Goldman also cut its price target to 1,400 pence a share (from 1,600 pence), implying 4 per cent downside based on yesterday's closing price.

StockMarketWire.com
BHP Billiton's group production increased by 9% for the 2015 financial year. Over the past two years, production from its core portfolio grew by 27%.

Petroleum production increased by 4% to a record 256 MMboe, supported by a 67% increase in Onshore US liquids volumes to 56 MMboe.

Copper production was unchanged at 1.7 Mt as strong operating performance at Escondida offset the impact of a mill outage at Olympic Dam.

Western Australia Iron Ore production increased by 13% to a record 254 Mt (100% basis), underpinned by productivity gains across the integrated supply chain.

Metallurgical coal production increased by 13% to a record 43 Mt.

Three major projects achieved first production during the 2015 financial year, including the Escondida Organic Growth Project 1 which was completed in the June 2015 quarter.

The demerger of South32 from BHP Billiton was successfully completed during the June quarter.

Underlying attributable profit in the June 2015 half year is expected to include additional charges in a range of approximately US$350 million to US$650 million.

Chief executive Andrew Mackenzie said: "Our businesses performed well over the 2015 financial year. We have improved the performance of our equipment, reduced costs, and increased volumes despite a significant reduction in capital spend. Our simpler portfolio following the demerger of South32 will help us maintain the pace of operational improvement, further supporting cash generation, margins and returns. "Better productivity will be the sole source of volume growth at Western Australia Iron Ore in the 2016 financial year with production forecast to increase by seven per cent and unit costs are expected to fall to US$16 per tonne. "In Petroleum, through improved recoveries and lower drilling costs, we expect to maintain production in the Black Hawk and Permian in the 2016 financial year despite cutting annual shale investment by over 50 per cent. Although our decision to cut spending in the Onshore US will mean deferring gas volumes in the near term, we expect to realise greater value by developing our acreage later.

"We remain confident that our focus on best-in-class performance together with our unrivalled asset quality, optimal diversification and continued investment in high-return projects, will create long-term value through the cycle and deliver superior returns to our shareholders."

BHP BILLITON RESULTS FOR THE YEAR ENDED 30 JUNE 2015

· The health and safety of our people is our first priority. After no fatalities in the 2014 financial year, we tragically lost five colleagues this year. It is our ongoing goal to have a workplace free from fatalities and serious injury and we have implemented a company-wide program to improve performance.
· Underlying EBITDA(1) of US$21.9 billion and an Underlying EBITDA margin(2) of 50% for the 2015 financial year demonstrate the quality of our portfolio and its resilience in challenging markets. Underlying EBIT(1) declined by 46% to US$11.9 billion.
· Our focus on best-in-class performance delivered productivity gains of US$4.1 billion(3), two years ahead of target. We expect further cost reductions in the 2016 financial year across all businesses.
· Capital and exploration expenditure(4) decreased by 24% to US$11.0 billion in the period and is expected to decline to US$8.5 billion in the 2016 financial year and US$7.0 billion in the 2017 financial year.
· Improved operating and capital productivity combined with the flexibility of our investment program supported free cash flow(2) of US$6.3 billion.
· We maintained our solid A credit rating(5) and finished the period with net debt(2) of US$24.4 billion, a decline of US$1.4 billion.
· Our commitment to the progressive dividend is unchanged. Our full-year dividend increased by 2% to 124 US cents per share.

Jefferies note:
"If commodity prices stabilize as we expect, highly leveraged miners should take advantage of the opportunity to strengthen their balance sheets via asset sales and equity issuances. Miners with financial flexibility are best positioned to buy high quality assets at a very weak point in the cycle. BHP and Rio - two of our top picks - have strong balance sheets but should change their dividend policies to capitalize on opportunities.
Recent share price recovery has been dramatic and has created opportunities: The Glencore share price collapse from last week dragged most of the sector down with it. Fears about a funding issue for Glencore have subsided, and mining equity valuations have re-rated as a result. The delay to a Fed rate hike has also helped the sector, and the demand outlook for China has arguably modestly improved due to property market strength and potential targeted fiscal stimulus. We expect mining share prices to be supported in the near-term as macro headwinds have eased. As we discuss in this note, miners with leveraged balance sheets should take advantage of the recovery as downside tail risks have not disappeared. We expect M&A activity to materially increase over the next year, and leveraged miners will continue to be under pressure to recapitalize their balance sheets via asset sales and equity issuances. It is increasingly likely that higher quality assets will be made available. Miners with strong balance sheets and financial flexibility have the opportunity to create long-term value via asset purchases at what is still a very weak point in the cycle.
BHP and Rio have progressive dividend policies which limit their financial flexibility: BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have rock solid balance sheets, but almost all of their free cash flow is being used to pay dividends. Based on our analysis, they are therefore limiting their ability to create value via opportunistic investment during the current downturn. Their dividend yields (7.2% for BHP and 5.9% for Rio) are high enough to indicate that the market already expects a dividend cut at some point. However, they are unwilling to cut their dividends because they have progressive dividend policies.
BHP and Rio should scrap their progressive dividends and go to a payout ratio instead: A shift to a dividend payout equal to 50% of free cash flow would imply a still respectable 3.3% dividend yield for BHP and for Rio. Most importantly, dividend cuts to these levels would save BHP $3.5 billion and Rio $1.8 billion per year. This would give these companies significant financial flexibility to buy good assets at what is clearly a weak point in the cycle. We would expect them to be most interested in large, long reserve life, low risk copper assets since the NPV of acquiring these assets would likely be higher than the NPV to build. Anglo American, Freeport, First Quantum and some other major miners have high quality copper assets that could be sold. An opportunity to drive share prices higher even if commodity prices do not recover: Buying high quality assets on the cheap would create more shareholder value than using all FCF to pay dividends, based on our analysis. This acquisition strategy would likely drive BHP's and Rio's share price higher over time, even if the strategy is accompanied by a lower, payout-based dividend. Dividend payments that absorb all of a company’s free cash flow may support share prices in the short-term, but we do not believe they create longterm shareholder value."

StockMarketWire.com
BHP Billiton remains on track to meet full-year production and cost guidance after a solid operational performance in the three months to the end of September.

Highlights:
· Petroleum capital expenditure of US$2.9 billion now planned for the 2016 financial year, a 6% decline from prior guidance of US$3.1 billion. · Four major projects under development are tracking to plan. · The Group continues to pursue high-quality oil plays with additional prospective acreage acquired in the Beagle sub-basin in Western Australia and the Western Gulf of Mexico. · Approval received for the extension of operational permits for Cerro Colorado until 2023. · In October, BHP Billiton priced multi-currency hybrid notes in the Euro, Sterling and US Dollar markets.

Chief executive Andrew Mackenzie said: "BHP Billiton remains on track to meet full-year production and cost guidance after a solid operational performance this quarter. In Petroleum, we continue to reduce costs in both our Onshore US and Conventional businesses, and will meet our production targets with US$200 million less capital investment. We successfully acquired prospective oil acreage in Western Australia and the Western Gulf of Mexico and will continue to invest through the cycle to create value for shareholders."

StockMarketWire.com
BHP Billiton's iron ore production guidance for the 2016 financial year is under review following a dam collapse at a Brazilian iron ore mine co-owned by the company.

The Samarco operations include a three tiered tailings dam complex. Within this complex, the Fundão dam failed and the downstream Santarém dam has been affected. This resulted in a significant release of mine tailings, flooding the community of Bento Rodrigues and impacting other communities downstream. The third dam in the complex, the Germano dam, is being monitored by Samarco. At this time, there is no confirmation of the causes of the tailings release. BHP Billiton's chief executive, Andrew Mackenzie, will go to Brazil this week to understand first-hand the human, environmental and operational impacts of the incident. Meanwhile, BHP Billiton has offered its full support to help the immediate rescue efforts and to assist with the investigation. BHP Billiton's immediate priority is the welfare of the Samarco workforce and the local communities. Details are still emerging in relation to the Samarco employees and contractors impacted by the incident. At this stage, Samarco has advised that there is at least one confirmed fatality with a further 13 members of the workforce missing. The number of people in the communities impacted by the incident is yet to be confirmed, but the local authorities have reported that, at this stage, there are at least 15 people from the communities unaccounted for. BHP Billiton will continue to work with Samarco (operator), Vale, the local communities, local authorities, regulators and insurers to assess the full impact of this tragic incident. Further updates will be provided as soon as more information becomes available. The Samarco operations have the capacity to produce 30.5 Mtpa of iron ore pellets and to process 32 Mtpa of concentrate. In the 2015 financial year, BHP Billiton's share of production was 14.5 Mt and the contribution from Samarco was approximately 3 per cent of the BHP Billiton Group's Underlying EBIT. Following this incident, BHP Billiton's iron ore production guidance for the 2016 financial year is under review.

Cazenove note today:
"We believe the Samarco tailings dam failure will prove to be the straw that breaks the camel’s back on BHP’s progressive dividend. At spot, assuming $500m costs related to Samarco and aggregate FY’16-17E capex $2bn below guidance, we estimate a ~$8bn shortfall to comply with A- credit metrics by the end of CY’17E. With the risk of further downside to base metals, we believe pressure will grow on BHP’s Board and we now forecast a 50% cut to the progressive dividend at FY’16 results. Against that backdrop, we do not believe 8% YTD underperformance vs RIO and +30-35% vs AAL/GLEN adequately reflects the risk investors, particularly those with an income focus, and we downgrade to Underweight with a revised Dec’16 PT of £7.50/sh.
 Material cash/capital shortfall: On spot prices and assuming no change to the US$6.6bn pa progressive dividend we estimate BHP faces a $16-20bn capital shortfall to sustain its A+ credit rating and a cumulative ~$9bn deficit of FCF vs dividend commitments for CY'16-17E. Even assuming management is willing to tolerate an A- rating, which they have indicated is below their definition of “solid A”, we estimate an $8bn capital shortfall, despite our capex forecast sitting $2bn below guidance for FY’16-17E.
 Factoring in a 50% dividend cut: In that context, with downside risk to copper prices and with management commentary increasingly equivocal on the trade-off between capital returns and investment in growth, we believe BHP will ultimately rebase the dividend 50% lower (to ~US$3.3bn pa) at FY’16 results next August. In combination with further reductions in working capital, opex and capex, this should allow the company to manage its balance sheet effectively, whilst still offering a ~4.5-5.0% yield.
 Removing Samarco: We have removed Samarco from our model. While NPV analysis suggests a likely justification for a restart, we believe the environmental, political and social dimensions mean there is no certainty that Samarco will regain its licence to operate. We make a preliminary estimate of US$0.5bn (BHP share) in rehabilitation/fines over three years.
 Downgrade to UW: We reduce our EPS by 7%/9%, respectively, for FY’16/17E and NPV by 4%, with the company now on spot EV/EBITDAs of ~10.5x, a ~5% premium vs RIO and a base case P/NPV of 0.69x (~25% prem. to diversified peer group). We recalibrate our price target methodology to a blended average of our base-case and spot valuation, which reduces our Dec'16 PT to £7.50/sh (previously £13.00/sh). We cut our recommendation to UW and retain our preference for RIO."

sorry to say, but i fear this goliath still has a long way to fall
underlying commodity prices apart, the cost of the disaster in brazil has yet to be played out

UPDATE: SAMARCO

the tailings are composed of materials that are not hazardous to human health, based on the hazard classification of the material under Brazilian standards

the implication being that international standards could well say otherwise!

Have a look at photo 5 here.