ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

Good work eric. Hope you bought some Toa at 8.5p too pal.. now 10 on the bid.

Don't settle for less than 1.50 on BNH sir ;-)

Asc performing very well over the past month or so. MPH not doing as well as we thought... although time will tell. I bought at 34.5 and sold at 35.5 before I had to settle out of the position... so i pretty much broke even.

Thanks again for the weekly wrap-up. Are your nerves as shot as mine awaiting the PET decision....I expect so as your topping up has kept pace with mine.

legend: Not in BNH but its not because its not a good share but I'm one of those who focus their funds in 4 or 5 shares. Possible I could have a wee flutter over the results: they do seem to move a lot on small demand so if the results are better than expected they could certainly get to 150p.

sandra: Nerves not really frayed at all but I am still really relatively light (about 17% of portfolio). Its like waiting for a sale to come through. You tend to write in the success and its an anti-climax when the sale is confirmed. Obviously, things can fall through at the last minute but you just need to get on with things. Even a PET loss could well be cancelled out with a Pet gain. YOO should be back on-stream this week with a significant rise in sp. You just play your hand and switch if you lose a trick. The other thing is to be ready to react when (not if!) the good news comes - now that really is fun: deciding how much to sell and at what price and where to put the funds.
Better than household budgets - oh, damn: got to complete the business income tax before we go on hols mid December. Now, that is work!

John: bad timing of the CFD buys on Thursday means I am a bit near the limit and I need to be ready to top up the funds; I've learnt that lesson already. But I realise it works both ways. If you have a surplus on current contracts you can invest that as well and really build up the gearing. Do you tend to come in and out of your positions in line with your projections of teh chart movements?

Eric

Eric: Thanks as always for your weekly summary. Very useful and informative.
Like you I may follow a number of companies but limit my stakes to no more than 4. Try unwinding a lot of positions at once if something big breaks!!

As for CFD's, I do exactly what you say and use the charts to come in and out of positions on balance it works well. As we know SP's do not go up in a straight line, so you just have to be patient some times...but it pays in the long run. If a SP gets away from you must follow your own trading rules and tough it out. Essentially you need two brains, one for trading and one for investing! Difficult soemtimes but can be useful as long as you always remember which brain you are using!

Sandra: Re your Debt company, there was a penetrating analysis on WatsHot.com this week (it is not an expensive subscription)...I urge you to read it if you have not already done so. I will check out the chart later and get back to you.

ASOS: Should be a very interesting week as we run up to the announcement. It has recently had a good run...sometimes you see a SP rise on the expectation and fall on the actuals. Exciting.


John

Should indeed be an interesting two weeks from the perpective of share movement.

In my opinion though, the results will tell us very little that we do not know.

I think we can presume that they will come up with a figure of about 80% higher turnover in comparison to last year and a statement that current sales are strong (without many figures for current trading, as they will announce these in January in the Christmas trading update). I'm sure they will mention that the product line expansion has increased rapidly as expected, that registered user numbers are still rising, that the miss sixty products will come on-line soon as will the amazon store-front and that the cash generation is still strong. Other than that I am expecting very little real 'news'.

At best, it would be nice to hear that the soft launch in the US is doing OK, but I don't think there are many sites in the US selling ASOS clothes yet and only expect the launch to really begin once they have the new warehouse facility around summer 2005 and with a real push into the US in time for next Christmas 2005.

I do think the Sales update in January will be very interesting though.

Does anyone know if Girls Aloud still put flyers advertising ASOS in their CD covers? If so, the following article put out by Reuters today could be useful.

LONDON (Reuters) - Pop group Girls Aloud have blown Irish rockers U2 from the top of the singles charts with their cover of The Pretenders ballad "I'll Stand By You", the Official UK Charts Company says.

The girl band got their second official number one with a single for the BBC's annual fundraising drive Children in Need.

wjordan

That was a good analysis of expectations for next week. I would hope, and reasonably expect, there to be a trading statement covering start of Xmas season, i.e. October. The new buyers should be starting to have some effect. Seymour Pearce, house brokers, have raised advice from BUY to OUTPERFORM. I agree that the 80% is built into price although a key figure will be level of overheads and thus gross margin. So we need something more for the price to move ahead and my money (literally with the CFDs) is on a bullish trading statement. If its not there, then the price could come back giving a buying opportunity.

John

How do you read the charts?

Eric

Looks like ASOS has got a bumper christmas on the way... Taken from the personal finance section of money am.

Online Christmas shopping spree
MoneyAM
An estimated 10.1 million UK shoppers are forecast to buy Christmas presents online this year, according to market researchers, Continental Research.

If true, it will be a new record.

The projection is significantly up from the 7.3 million adults who bought gifts online last year. And is in stark contrast to just 5 years ago when only 1.5 million people took the online plunge.

The 10.1 million shoppers are predicted to spend 178 each, thereby generating 1.8 billion of sales in the process - 500 million more than last year - and twelve times the 150 million spent in 1999.

Much of the impetus, according to Colin Shaddick of Continental Research, is coming from the growth in broadband take-up; coupled with improvements made to the overall online shopping experience.

However, the exponential growth in online shopping hasn't come at the expense of shopping on the High Street where there has been little sign of customers giving up their traditional habits.

Eric: Just a quick update on the Charts, RSI (always an early indicator of change) turned down slightly towards the end of last week, followed by the MACD. So I see the MACD as supportive of a slight pullback at this moment. Now the support line (at least mine) runs through 70p, with resistance at 110p. So we could just be marking time at present, I myself would like to see the SP pull back a little more towards the support line, and the RSI reverse before I would increase my stake (it would then be a good risk/reward trade again). John

Today's Times

INTERNET shopping still accounts for a tiny proportion of total retail sales, but it is growing fast. Extrapolate the trend shown in yesterdays Office for National Statistics data, and there is good reason for retail landlords to be feeling uncomfortable. Boo.com, an early attempt to sell clothing online, drowned in its own publicity, but customers are warming to the modern home shopping. Asos, which kits out would-be Kylies, has seen its share price rocket from 4p to 93 p in a year. Its ambitions are high and its property needs minimal.

What I like about these various quotes that are cropping up, such as that in today's Times, is that ASOS always seems to be the positive example. Price starting to move ahead again after a correction. John: I take your point about the Resistance level but the Monday results are key. If there is a positive trading report re the start of the Xmas season and the effect of the new Buyers, then the price has to move ahead again. I think you do have to weigh the Seymour Pearce OUTPERFORM as they will know a lot that we don't. I would also expect there to be more buying ahead of the interims rather than profit taking. Now, if they were coy about the futures, but I don't think they go in for 'coyness', then there could be a bout of profit-taking and your resistance level could be tested. Mind, its a windy world out there with these CFDs; lovely to have multipliers when the share goes up but not so much when it is going down! Taking about winds, I have a vision of capa's waves of sp rises; isn't asos on the way to becoming a household name and therefore have broader application thna currently realised? And what about that lovely US market with all the lovelies wanting to look like their favourite lovely? Lovely!!

Eric

Great mention in the Times, backs up what we already know, thanks marketmaker

Got to sit on my hands at the moment, nearly bought some more this morning and would now prefer to wait until next week to see how interims are received. My experience of late is that good results usually result in a good buying opportunity as traders take their profits, plus ACE report on Thursday and I may need money for them.

capa

It is noticeable that whenever there is press coverage of ASOS, invariably good, the SP moves ahead. I think it is more than wanting to catch the trend, more like shortage of stock! I agree with CAPA on the importance of next's weeks statement, but even if it does not provide too much detail it is bound to mention current trading and outlook. That may be enough to push it up and away. All I tried to point out in my chart analysis, is that I would not buy at this level...but then again I already hold a big chunk of stock and it to make me buy more I would like to see the SP pull back from current levels. I hope to get that opportunity before Xmas!

Re media coverage, internet buying was discussed recently on a late night 5Live broadcast, and guess what ASOS products were held up as a perfect example of what young ladies want to buy, and the conclusion was never mind the High Street just log-on! The site was praised as being easy to use, and people actually called in agreeing!! What next I wonder.


John

John

John
John
Is obviously the done thing, like buying dresses at ASOS, to sign your name twice! Is this to celebrate the forthcoming doubling of the ASOS price? Sorry, John John, no better buying opportunity than now as the price will be up, up and away by Christmas. Just look at the buying trades going through and hardly a speck of red to be seen. Now, what would be better than buying an ASOS dress for Christmas, yes, yes, your right, ASOS shares! Have recently transferred 1000 to each of four children in ASOS shares at 68p; they are hugely impressed with their growth - and Dad's skill!
Eric
Eric

This could be an omen for ASC to double!! Eric my laugh for the day-thanks.

Final top up before interims - via a cfd to give a bit of gearing. Signal for price to drop, of course, with a spate of selling in the last half hour. Probably closing of positions. Good time to buy first thing tomorrow! Happier to go with that nice chap, moneyplus! lol!

Eric

with only one more trading day to their interim results I would have to say that the rush that i expected to get into ASOS before it announced even more good news just has not happened. Still could go north tomorrow. I was expecting this to be the charge that tokk it to the coveted 1.

Another note on ASOS marketing exposure:- today in London the free to commuters tabloid 'The Metro' has a supplement on Xmas shopping packed full of ASOS goodies.
If I may say so this is a well aimed and targetted hit at it's target audience. Just thought I would add this item to the BB for those of you living outside the great City!

Not just London John, the Metro has even reached us up here in the provinces !!

capa

capa: OOPPSS, don't go North of the river as much as I should! Glad to hear it nevertheless! Roll on those sales. John