The favoured scenario for the EU is to offer a no/bad deal, and for the UK to stay in the EU. However, the worst scenario for the EU is for the UK to leave the EU with a bad or no deal because German exports will be hit and they'll lose the UK's income resulting in a budget black hole.
The second best scenario from the EU's perspective is a good deal.
So, if I were Michel Barnier right now, I'd be refusing to talk trade and hold out as long as possible in the hope that the UK does a U-turn and decides to stay. If/when he realises that's not going to happen, he won't want to risk a worse case scenario, so he'll change tack and offer a great deal.
And if I were Maggie May, I'd be playing it exactly as she's playing it.