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new millennium resources (NML)
LEEWINK - 28 Mar 2004 15:45
NML is due its interrim results now, last year it was the 28th of this month.
They are setting up a new site to explore/research/analyse and all the equipment to do this should be on site now, and drilling should start soon, all this extra news should be covered in the interims.
does anyone have any further positive views on this company ??
They are setting up a new site to explore/research/analyse and all the equipment to do this should be on site now, and drilling should start soon, all this extra news should be covered in the interims.
does anyone have any further positive views on this company ??
mjr1234
- 13 Jun 2005 16:02
- 793 of 1909
Anomalous,
The company has stated that, once in full production, they expect to extract 10,000 cts/month leading to a profit of around $1M/month of which around $500k is attributable to NML.
Why would it be price sensitive news if they were producing enough diamonds to break-even, when they stated they expect to make $500k PROFIT?
The company has stated that, once in full production, they expect to extract 10,000 cts/month leading to a profit of around $1M/month of which around $500k is attributable to NML.
Why would it be price sensitive news if they were producing enough diamonds to break-even, when they stated they expect to make $500k PROFIT?
The company has stated that, once in full production, they expect to extract 10,000 cts/month leading to a profit of around $1M/month of which around $500k is attributable to NML.
Why would it be price sensitive news if they were producing enough diamonds to break-even, when they stated they expect to make $500k PROFIT?
The company has stated that, once in full production, they expect to extract 10,000 cts/month leading to a profit of around $1M/month of which around $500k is attributable to NML.
Why would it be price sensitive news if they were producing enough diamonds to break-even, when they stated they expect to make $500k PROFIT?
The company has stated that, once in full production, they expect to extract 10,000 cts/month leading to a profit of around $1M/month of which around $500k is attributable to NML.
Why would it be price sensitive news if they were producing enough diamonds to break-even, when they stated they expect to make $500k PROFIT?
The company has stated that, once in full production, they expect to extract 10,000 cts/month leading to a profit of around $1M/month of which around $500k is attributable to NML.
Why would it be price sensitive news if they were producing enough diamonds to break-even, when they stated they expect to make $500k PROFIT?
The company has stated that, once in full production, they expect to extract 10,000 cts/month leading to a profit of around $1M/month of which around $500k is attributable to NML.
Why would it be price sensitive news if they were producing enough diamonds to break-even, when they stated they expect to make $500k PROFIT?
The company has stated that, once in full production, they expect to extract 10,000 cts/month leading to a profit of around $1M/month of which around $500k is attributable to NML.
Why would it be price sensitive news if they were producing enough diamonds to break-even, when they stated they expect to make $500k PROFIT?
The company has stated that, once in full production, they expect to extract 10,000 cts/month leading to a profit of around $1M/month of which around $500k is attributable to NML.
Why would it be price sensitive news if they were producing enough diamonds to break-even, when they stated they expect to make $500k PROFIT?
The company has stated that, once in full production, they expect to extract 10,000 cts/month leading to a profit of around $1M/month of which around $500k is attributable to NML.
Why would it be price sensitive news if they were producing enough diamonds to break-even, when they stated they expect to make $500k PROFIT?
The company has stated that, once in full production, they expect to extract 10,000 cts/month leading to a profit of around $1M/month of which around $500k is attributable to NML.
Why would it be price sensitive news if they were producing enough diamonds to break-even, when they stated they expect to make $500k PROFIT?
The company has stated that, once in full production, they expect to extract 10,000 cts/month leading to a profit of around $1M/month of which around $500k is attributable to NML.
Why would it be price sensitive news if they were producing enough diamonds to break-even, when they stated they expect to make $500k PROFIT?
The company has stated that, once in full production, they expect to extract 10,000 cts/month leading to a profit of around $1M/month of which around $500k is attributable to NML.
Why would it be price sensitive news if they were producing enough diamonds to break-even, when they stated they expect to make $500k PROFIT?
The company has stated that, once in full production, they expect to extract 10,000 cts/month leading to a profit of around $1M/month of which around $500k is attributable to NML.
Why would it be price sensitive news if they were producing enough diamonds to break-even, when they stated they expect to make $500k PROFIT?
takahe - 13 Jun 2005 16:03 - 794 of 1909
Anomalous1
'It appears to most that they lack the necessary experience in running a minex company, to be able to successfully pull off the project. ' that is a rather subjective statement.MANA have been in mining for far longer than NML and have hardly moved in sp. They certainly miscalculated but that is not uncommon with minex companies. That does not imply deliberate deceit. In the 13 months since Healy and Cross came on board, they have a mine, producing diamonds, in Angola. Hardly a mean achievement. The Badenhorst Bros have not just picked up a few shovels from B&Q. They are experienced miners and know what is there.
'It appears to most that they lack the necessary experience in running a minex company, to be able to successfully pull off the project. ' that is a rather subjective statement.MANA have been in mining for far longer than NML and have hardly moved in sp. They certainly miscalculated but that is not uncommon with minex companies. That does not imply deliberate deceit. In the 13 months since Healy and Cross came on board, they have a mine, producing diamonds, in Angola. Hardly a mean achievement. The Badenhorst Bros have not just picked up a few shovels from B&Q. They are experienced miners and know what is there.
takahe - 13 Jun 2005 16:05 - 795 of 1909
Your story above about the 'death threat' business is incorrect.
mjr1234
- 13 Jun 2005 16:06
- 796 of 1909
Anomalous1,
The company has stated that, once in full production, they expect to extract 10,000 cts/month leading to a profit of around $1M/month of which around $500k is attributable to NML.
Why would it be price sensitive news if they were producing enough diamonds to break-even, when they stated they expect to make $500k PROFIT?
The current resources of Concession C9 can be discussed in terms of target areas.
Rio Lapi Garimpo
The Proved Area has been defined with dimensions 1,500 metres by 200 metres within which systematic sampling of:
Old pits;
Undisturbed ground,
Bedrock
has been undertaken.
Within the area, the median thickness of overburden is 0.75 metres, gravels 1.25 metres and up to 0.25 metres of bedrock was penetrated. Grades of diamonds recovered ranged from 0.30 carats per cubic metre in the old diggings to 0.90 carats per cubic metre in the undisturbed ground. The median grade for all the tests was 0.627 carats per cubic metre.
The volume of diamondiferous gravel available in this block is thus:
1,500 x 200 x 1.25 cubic metres
= 375,000 cubic metres.
With a median grade of 0.627 carats per cubic metre this represents a measured resource of 235,000 carats. Dr Smith believes this to be a low figure because of the garimpero prospecting method used. Collaborative work with Professor Morais indicates that the garimpero method recovers approximately 40% of the stones (albeit the larger ones). The true resource figure should be higher.
Assuming a new, engineered extraction process recovers 80% of the stones, the recoverable measured resource should be 188,100 carats.
Rio Lapi Targets
Other target areas are present in the Lapi Garimpo area. (Figure 4) Using the thickness, grade and recovery factors for the Lapi Garimpo, the following inferred resources (see below table) have been calculated.
Target Length (m) Width (m) Inferred Resource (carats)
A 1,200 700 564,480
B 1,900 800 1,021,440
C 1,200 500 403,200
D 900 1200 725,760
E 2,000 800 1,075,200
TOTAL 3,790,080
Rio Lapi Resource Summary
Other prospectivity is present in the Rio Lapi basin. This includes eluvial, terrace and inter alluvial relict deposits as well as proximal materials associated with kimberlites that the author believes may be present in the basin.
Rio Chicapa Prospects
The valley of the Rio Chicapa is also highly prospective for diamonds. These include:
Point Bar Deposits - downstream of the confluence of the Lapi and the Chicapa is a point bar meander complex. This is a prime exploration target. Grab sampling indicates grades comparable with the Lapi Garimpo. The volume of sediment is approximately 4 million cubic metres and with a grade of 0.6 carats per cubic metre and 80% recovery, this represents an inferred resource of 1,920,000 carats. There is at least one other point bar complex on the licence and they are best suited to exploitation using river cut off and dredging.
Alluvial Flats near Base Camp - across the Rio Chicapa from the base camp is an extensive alluvial flat. Grab sampling at surface has yielded grades of 0.20 to 0.30 carats per cubic metre. This is believed to be low because the source of this sand and gravel is the area of the Catoca kimberlite field and grades are likely to increase with depth. Exploration work is required. The deposit contains approximately 12 million cubic metres of sand and gravel. Assuming a low grade of 0.30 carats per cubic metre and 80% recovery, this represents an inferred resource of 2,880,000 carats.
Rio Chicapa Channel and Rapids - no data is forthcoming on this prospecting play. Typical dredge grades for the riverbed are 0.20 to 0.25 carats per cubic metre while in the adjacent areas downstream; grades of up to 2.3 carats per cubic metre have been encountered upstream from rapids.
Rio Luo Prospects
The Rio Luo runs through the eastern part of the licence and drains 40% of its area. No formal work has been done on the Rio Luo but it does yield diamonds to artisanal diggers. This part of the licence is underLain by the classic Calonda succession with relict Kalahari sediments. There is major upside prospectivity for diamonds in this area but work is required.
The Rio Lapi Garimpo has been subject to most investigation and provides the basis for assessment of the Rio Lapi targets. The area has been evaluated by means of hand-dug trial pits and the gravels obtained washed by hand or by using a small separation plant located at the Mombo LDA base camp.
Economic Model of the Rio Lapi Garimpo
An economic model for the Rio Lapi Garimpo Proven Reserve can be based on the test work to date supported by:
Technical information provided by Mombo LDA.
Evaluation of mining methods and the leasing to equipment to undertake land clearing, overburden stripping, ore mining and rehabilitation.
Evaluation of the project.
An assumption that the proven reserves evaluated in the Rio Lapi Garimpo will be replaced from the Rio Lapi targets.
The project financial model is detailed within this report. Initial production of diamonds will be annualised at 120,000 carats increasing to 240,000 carats five (5) months after operations commence, yielding a profit of US$ 110 per carat rising to US$124 per carat with the increased production. The recoverable reserve of 188,100 carats of diamonds identified in the Rio Lapi Garimpo should thus yield approximately US$ 20 million.
Potential Economic Upside of Indicated and Inferred Resources
The Rio Lapi Garimpo reserves have been investigated in detail and are considered proven. Upside value is derived from Rio Lapi Targets A - E (see above descriptions) with an Inferred Resource of 3,790,080 carats. These will be mined during a period of increased production and will therefore yield the higher profit of US$124 per carat (see above).
If this profitability level were maintained, the above indicated resource would yield a pre tax profit in excess of US$ 500 million. It is reasonable to assume that the exploration and exploitation of the inferred reserves carries some commercial and technical risk and the above resource end value will not be achieved. However, based on the history, local knowledge and the geology of the area, there is a reasonable expectation of at least 40% success and an expected value of US$ 200 million.
Rio Chicapa - Point Bar Deposits
Inferred Resource 1,920,000 carats.
Assuming a profit margin of US$ 124 per carat this has an indicated value of US$ 240 million or US$ 47 million allowing for a 20% probability of success.
Rio Chicapa - Alluvial Flats near Base Camp
Inferred Resource 2,880,000 carats.
A conservative estimate guess of the profit per carat is US$ 65.00. The resulting estimated value of the resource is US$ 187 million. Allowing for a 20% probability of commercial success this represents an expected value of US$ 37 million.
Rio Chicapa Channel and Rapids, Terraces, Eluvial Deposits, Kalahari Relicts and Rio Luo
not assessed but they represent a considerable upside value.
Potential Deposit Expected Profit
(US$ Million) Probability of Success
Rio Lapi Garimpo 20.00 1.00
Rio Lapi targets 200.00 0.40
Rio Chicapa - Point Bars 47.00 0.20
Rio Chicapa - Alluvial Flats 37.00 0.20
TOTAL 304.00
Summary of Potential Valuations
2004 New Millennium Resources Limited
Disclaimer
The company has stated that, once in full production, they expect to extract 10,000 cts/month leading to a profit of around $1M/month of which around $500k is attributable to NML.
Why would it be price sensitive news if they were producing enough diamonds to break-even, when they stated they expect to make $500k PROFIT?
The company has stated that, once in full production, they expect to extract 10,000 cts/month leading to a profit of around $1M/month of which around $500k is attributable to NML.
Why would it be price sensitive news if they were producing enough diamonds to break-even, when they stated they expect to make $500k PROFIT?
The current resources of Concession C9 can be discussed in terms of target areas.
Rio Lapi Garimpo
The Proved Area has been defined with dimensions 1,500 metres by 200 metres within which systematic sampling of:
Old pits;
Undisturbed ground,
Bedrock
has been undertaken.
Within the area, the median thickness of overburden is 0.75 metres, gravels 1.25 metres and up to 0.25 metres of bedrock was penetrated. Grades of diamonds recovered ranged from 0.30 carats per cubic metre in the old diggings to 0.90 carats per cubic metre in the undisturbed ground. The median grade for all the tests was 0.627 carats per cubic metre.
The volume of diamondiferous gravel available in this block is thus:
1,500 x 200 x 1.25 cubic metres
= 375,000 cubic metres.
With a median grade of 0.627 carats per cubic metre this represents a measured resource of 235,000 carats. Dr Smith believes this to be a low figure because of the garimpero prospecting method used. Collaborative work with Professor Morais indicates that the garimpero method recovers approximately 40% of the stones (albeit the larger ones). The true resource figure should be higher.
Assuming a new, engineered extraction process recovers 80% of the stones, the recoverable measured resource should be 188,100 carats.
Rio Lapi Targets
Other target areas are present in the Lapi Garimpo area. (Figure 4) Using the thickness, grade and recovery factors for the Lapi Garimpo, the following inferred resources (see below table) have been calculated.
Target Length (m) Width (m) Inferred Resource (carats)
A 1,200 700 564,480
B 1,900 800 1,021,440
C 1,200 500 403,200
D 900 1200 725,760
E 2,000 800 1,075,200
TOTAL 3,790,080
Rio Lapi Resource Summary
Other prospectivity is present in the Rio Lapi basin. This includes eluvial, terrace and inter alluvial relict deposits as well as proximal materials associated with kimberlites that the author believes may be present in the basin.
Rio Chicapa Prospects
The valley of the Rio Chicapa is also highly prospective for diamonds. These include:
Point Bar Deposits - downstream of the confluence of the Lapi and the Chicapa is a point bar meander complex. This is a prime exploration target. Grab sampling indicates grades comparable with the Lapi Garimpo. The volume of sediment is approximately 4 million cubic metres and with a grade of 0.6 carats per cubic metre and 80% recovery, this represents an inferred resource of 1,920,000 carats. There is at least one other point bar complex on the licence and they are best suited to exploitation using river cut off and dredging.
Alluvial Flats near Base Camp - across the Rio Chicapa from the base camp is an extensive alluvial flat. Grab sampling at surface has yielded grades of 0.20 to 0.30 carats per cubic metre. This is believed to be low because the source of this sand and gravel is the area of the Catoca kimberlite field and grades are likely to increase with depth. Exploration work is required. The deposit contains approximately 12 million cubic metres of sand and gravel. Assuming a low grade of 0.30 carats per cubic metre and 80% recovery, this represents an inferred resource of 2,880,000 carats.
Rio Chicapa Channel and Rapids - no data is forthcoming on this prospecting play. Typical dredge grades for the riverbed are 0.20 to 0.25 carats per cubic metre while in the adjacent areas downstream; grades of up to 2.3 carats per cubic metre have been encountered upstream from rapids.
Rio Luo Prospects
The Rio Luo runs through the eastern part of the licence and drains 40% of its area. No formal work has been done on the Rio Luo but it does yield diamonds to artisanal diggers. This part of the licence is underLain by the classic Calonda succession with relict Kalahari sediments. There is major upside prospectivity for diamonds in this area but work is required.
The Rio Lapi Garimpo has been subject to most investigation and provides the basis for assessment of the Rio Lapi targets. The area has been evaluated by means of hand-dug trial pits and the gravels obtained washed by hand or by using a small separation plant located at the Mombo LDA base camp.
Economic Model of the Rio Lapi Garimpo
An economic model for the Rio Lapi Garimpo Proven Reserve can be based on the test work to date supported by:
Technical information provided by Mombo LDA.
Evaluation of mining methods and the leasing to equipment to undertake land clearing, overburden stripping, ore mining and rehabilitation.
Evaluation of the project.
An assumption that the proven reserves evaluated in the Rio Lapi Garimpo will be replaced from the Rio Lapi targets.
The project financial model is detailed within this report. Initial production of diamonds will be annualised at 120,000 carats increasing to 240,000 carats five (5) months after operations commence, yielding a profit of US$ 110 per carat rising to US$124 per carat with the increased production. The recoverable reserve of 188,100 carats of diamonds identified in the Rio Lapi Garimpo should thus yield approximately US$ 20 million.
Potential Economic Upside of Indicated and Inferred Resources
The Rio Lapi Garimpo reserves have been investigated in detail and are considered proven. Upside value is derived from Rio Lapi Targets A - E (see above descriptions) with an Inferred Resource of 3,790,080 carats. These will be mined during a period of increased production and will therefore yield the higher profit of US$124 per carat (see above).
If this profitability level were maintained, the above indicated resource would yield a pre tax profit in excess of US$ 500 million. It is reasonable to assume that the exploration and exploitation of the inferred reserves carries some commercial and technical risk and the above resource end value will not be achieved. However, based on the history, local knowledge and the geology of the area, there is a reasonable expectation of at least 40% success and an expected value of US$ 200 million.
Rio Chicapa - Point Bar Deposits
Inferred Resource 1,920,000 carats.
Assuming a profit margin of US$ 124 per carat this has an indicated value of US$ 240 million or US$ 47 million allowing for a 20% probability of success.
Rio Chicapa - Alluvial Flats near Base Camp
Inferred Resource 2,880,000 carats.
A conservative estimate guess of the profit per carat is US$ 65.00. The resulting estimated value of the resource is US$ 187 million. Allowing for a 20% probability of commercial success this represents an expected value of US$ 37 million.
Rio Chicapa Channel and Rapids, Terraces, Eluvial Deposits, Kalahari Relicts and Rio Luo
not assessed but they represent a considerable upside value.
Potential Deposit Expected Profit
(US$ Million) Probability of Success
Rio Lapi Garimpo 20.00 1.00
Rio Lapi targets 200.00 0.40
Rio Chicapa - Point Bars 47.00 0.20
Rio Chicapa - Alluvial Flats 37.00 0.20
TOTAL 304.00
Summary of Potential Valuations
2004 New Millennium Resources Limited
Disclaimer
The company has stated that, once in full production, they expect to extract 10,000 cts/month leading to a profit of around $1M/month of which around $500k is attributable to NML.
Why would it be price sensitive news if they were producing enough diamonds to break-even, when they stated they expect to make $500k PROFIT?
ASMITH2 - 13 Jun 2005 16:13 - 797 of 1909
Looks like Anomalous strikes again with the wig and cloak routine...LOL...!!
Anomalous1 - 13 Jun 2005 16:16 - 798 of 1909
takahe - 13 Jun'05 - 15:16 - 789 of 791
It is surely only your opinion that they are not intending to develop the kimberlites. Leon Daniels has expressed an interest in looking at the kimberlites and he is a renowned kimberlite geologist.
With regard to a previous post of yours about the FD lieing about diamonds being only one metre down...apparently, there are diamonds only 1 or 2 metres down but they are not generally good quality ones, so he was not lying.
It is my opinion that they are looking at the kimberlites, but they lack the necessary funds to develop them. It was thought that the revenue for the alluvials would be enough to help pay for the initial research and that a JV with a major, such as BHP or De Beers would enable NML to take the Kimberlites through to BFS and then production.
The company has said that the kimberlites were being explored by third parties (unknown). It is safe to assume that these people were doing so with the agreement and knowledge of NML. Just recently, several events happened which may have caused NML to change their plans.
1. Alrosa indicated that they were looking to considerably expand the Catoca operation.
2. That De Beers were back in Angola and with an agreement from the Angolan Government. DB were the original licensees. As they are actively looking to find new and rich sources of rough diamonds, it would be natural for them to revisit the sites they've already explored and possibly acquire the licenses.
As we don't know who was looking at the kimberlites, we can't tell for sure why NML suddenly put in the application for the kimberlite licenses. It appeared from the Project Summary that they already had the rights to the kimberlites. So it makes one suppose, that NML acted now, because they were prompted to by the interest of others.
However, even if the 'others' hadn't started looking at the C9 kimberlites, you have to admit that it makes a fantastic excuse to raise funds from the market. For whatever purpose the company eventually uses them for!
I speak to Leon every now and then. He told me about the request to look at the kimberlites. So far, nothing has come of it. I'm not sure that Leon would have the time to do the visits anyway. He does have rather a lot on his plate with Tawana and other matters.
With regard to the "one metre down" statement, you can see the extent of the over-burden in this picture:
It looks more than a metre, possibly even 2 metres down, however, it was when he said that you "could dig down 1 metre and there were handfulls of them, big ones" that it was obvious that this was a gross exaggeration. You only have to look at the grade to realise that 0.627 carats per m3 is not "handfulls" as he said. 0.627 cpm3 = 25 cpht
It is surely only your opinion that they are not intending to develop the kimberlites. Leon Daniels has expressed an interest in looking at the kimberlites and he is a renowned kimberlite geologist.
With regard to a previous post of yours about the FD lieing about diamonds being only one metre down...apparently, there are diamonds only 1 or 2 metres down but they are not generally good quality ones, so he was not lying.
It is my opinion that they are looking at the kimberlites, but they lack the necessary funds to develop them. It was thought that the revenue for the alluvials would be enough to help pay for the initial research and that a JV with a major, such as BHP or De Beers would enable NML to take the Kimberlites through to BFS and then production.
The company has said that the kimberlites were being explored by third parties (unknown). It is safe to assume that these people were doing so with the agreement and knowledge of NML. Just recently, several events happened which may have caused NML to change their plans.
1. Alrosa indicated that they were looking to considerably expand the Catoca operation.
2. That De Beers were back in Angola and with an agreement from the Angolan Government. DB were the original licensees. As they are actively looking to find new and rich sources of rough diamonds, it would be natural for them to revisit the sites they've already explored and possibly acquire the licenses.
As we don't know who was looking at the kimberlites, we can't tell for sure why NML suddenly put in the application for the kimberlite licenses. It appeared from the Project Summary that they already had the rights to the kimberlites. So it makes one suppose, that NML acted now, because they were prompted to by the interest of others.
However, even if the 'others' hadn't started looking at the C9 kimberlites, you have to admit that it makes a fantastic excuse to raise funds from the market. For whatever purpose the company eventually uses them for!
I speak to Leon every now and then. He told me about the request to look at the kimberlites. So far, nothing has come of it. I'm not sure that Leon would have the time to do the visits anyway. He does have rather a lot on his plate with Tawana and other matters.
With regard to the "one metre down" statement, you can see the extent of the over-burden in this picture:
It looks more than a metre, possibly even 2 metres down, however, it was when he said that you "could dig down 1 metre and there were handfulls of them, big ones" that it was obvious that this was a gross exaggeration. You only have to look at the grade to realise that 0.627 carats per m3 is not "handfulls" as he said. 0.627 cpm3 = 25 cpht
takahe - 13 Jun 2005 16:24 - 799 of 1909
Anomalous1
'The company has said that the kimberlites were being explored by third parties (unknown). ' they are not actually unknown. They are being tactful here, because it is all rather political.
As regards the diamonds, the better stones are known to be deeper down. I hardly think they are digging these holes for fun. These men are mining engineers.
You seem, by the tone of your posts, to be unwilling to believe anything good and to 'spin' information in a negative way.
I don't intend to read your prolific and vituperative posts any more.
'The company has said that the kimberlites were being explored by third parties (unknown). ' they are not actually unknown. They are being tactful here, because it is all rather political.
As regards the diamonds, the better stones are known to be deeper down. I hardly think they are digging these holes for fun. These men are mining engineers.
You seem, by the tone of your posts, to be unwilling to believe anything good and to 'spin' information in a negative way.
I don't intend to read your prolific and vituperative posts any more.
takahe - 13 Jun 2005 16:25 - 800 of 1909
one last thing...Leon vounteered to look at the kimberlites...wrong spin again.
mjr1234
- 13 Jun 2005 16:28
- 801 of 1909
"0.627 cpm3 = 25 cpht"
LOL I think you're a factor of 100 or so out there.
Actually, 0.627 cpm3 = about 6500 cpht.
LOL I think you're a factor of 100 or so out there.
Actually, 0.627 cpm3 = about 6500 cpht.
Anomalous1 - 13 Jun 2005 16:40 - 802 of 1909
mjr1234 - 13 Jun'05 - 16:02 - 792 of 797
Anomalous,
The company has stated that, once in full production, they expect to extract 10,000 cts/month leading to a profit of around $1M/month of which around $500k is attributable to NML.
Why would it be price sensitive news if they were producing enough diamonds to break-even, when they stated they expect to make $500k PROFIT?
Presumably you have repeated the statement above ad nauseum, because you haven't anything better than this or the material on the NML website with which to back up your argument.
I did a proper analysis of the NML financials and came up with a proper model that could calculate the rough value of the project. At 10,000 carats per month, the Gross profit (after expenditure) was just under $1 million. After tax at 30% this comes to $696k
The NML share (at the agreed accelerated percentage of 54.5% for the first three years) is $379k profit. Yet we know that the company has been expending +$400k per month during operations and $150k during the previous months.
So even allowing for the expenses being added back in (and we'll be generous and include $480k for operations and $119.5k for administrative/exploration) then the total revenue (to NML) would be 379k + $605k = $984k.
But before you start thinking that's a lot, remember that the company has expended well over $2.35 million in this financial year alone. So it appears from these figures that the company stands very little chance of being cashflow neutral by year end (June 2005).
You might be able to claim that they were cashflow neutral for the month, but certainly not for the year, on just 10,000 carats in June.
But what you seem to be missing most of all, is the fact that ANY NEW REVENUE STREAM is an important moment in any company's life. Indeed it is a price sensitive piece of news. The company has not announced this yet, or the fact that they have been granted the export license for the diamonds. The company can't export them without it, so this too would be price sensitive news.
By selectively picking on the 10,000 carats, you appear to be missing the bigger picture.
Anomalous,
The company has stated that, once in full production, they expect to extract 10,000 cts/month leading to a profit of around $1M/month of which around $500k is attributable to NML.
Why would it be price sensitive news if they were producing enough diamonds to break-even, when they stated they expect to make $500k PROFIT?
Presumably you have repeated the statement above ad nauseum, because you haven't anything better than this or the material on the NML website with which to back up your argument.
I did a proper analysis of the NML financials and came up with a proper model that could calculate the rough value of the project. At 10,000 carats per month, the Gross profit (after expenditure) was just under $1 million. After tax at 30% this comes to $696k
The NML share (at the agreed accelerated percentage of 54.5% for the first three years) is $379k profit. Yet we know that the company has been expending +$400k per month during operations and $150k during the previous months.
So even allowing for the expenses being added back in (and we'll be generous and include $480k for operations and $119.5k for administrative/exploration) then the total revenue (to NML) would be 379k + $605k = $984k.
But before you start thinking that's a lot, remember that the company has expended well over $2.35 million in this financial year alone. So it appears from these figures that the company stands very little chance of being cashflow neutral by year end (June 2005).
You might be able to claim that they were cashflow neutral for the month, but certainly not for the year, on just 10,000 carats in June.
But what you seem to be missing most of all, is the fact that ANY NEW REVENUE STREAM is an important moment in any company's life. Indeed it is a price sensitive piece of news. The company has not announced this yet, or the fact that they have been granted the export license for the diamonds. The company can't export them without it, so this too would be price sensitive news.
By selectively picking on the 10,000 carats, you appear to be missing the bigger picture.
Anomalous1 - 13 Jun 2005 16:47 - 803 of 1909
takahe - 13 Jun'05 - 16:25 - 799 of 801
one last thing...Leon vounteered to look at the kimberlites...wrong spin again.
Wrong again - I spoke to him on Saturday, as he's in this neck of the woods and he told me that someone (who is a frequent poster on the ADVFN BBs) asked him to look at the kimberlites. He was waiting to receive further docmentation on them, but no-one sent this. So nothing further happened.
Furthermore, Leon would be the ideal man to look at the pipes because he actually worked in Angola for some time, running a mining operation bringing in 600k carats per year. This was back during the time of the civil war. So He knows the land very well and the people.
one last thing...Leon vounteered to look at the kimberlites...wrong spin again.
Wrong again - I spoke to him on Saturday, as he's in this neck of the woods and he told me that someone (who is a frequent poster on the ADVFN BBs) asked him to look at the kimberlites. He was waiting to receive further docmentation on them, but no-one sent this. So nothing further happened.
Furthermore, Leon would be the ideal man to look at the pipes because he actually worked in Angola for some time, running a mining operation bringing in 600k carats per year. This was back during the time of the civil war. So He knows the land very well and the people.
mjr1234
- 13 Jun 2005 16:47
- 804 of 1909
Anomalous1,
What are you on about? Either your arithmetic ability is a mess, or you're deliberately trying to deceive.
If they are making 379k profit PER MONTH, then they are making 4.5M PER YEAR.
Even if we apply your twisted incorrect reasoning, and deduct $400k a month from the profit, that still equates to 2M per year PROFIT.
I don't know how stupid you think myself or other posters on here are?
What are you on about? Either your arithmetic ability is a mess, or you're deliberately trying to deceive.
If they are making 379k profit PER MONTH, then they are making 4.5M PER YEAR.
Even if we apply your twisted incorrect reasoning, and deduct $400k a month from the profit, that still equates to 2M per year PROFIT.
I don't know how stupid you think myself or other posters on here are?
Anomalous1 - 13 Jun 2005 16:50 - 805 of 1909
mjr1234 - 13 Jun'05 - 16:28 - 800 of 802
"0.627 cpm3 = 25 cpht"
LOL I think you're a factor of 100 or so out there.
Actually, 0.627 cpm3 = about 6500 cpht.
That shows your ignorance
1 cubic metre = 2.5 tonnes
so to take a carat figure per metre cubed, you multiply by 40.
If the grade was 6500 carats per hundred tonnes, C9 would be the richest deposit of diamonds anywhere in the world.
I suspect that you are talking out of your posterior..................AGAIN!
"0.627 cpm3 = 25 cpht"
LOL I think you're a factor of 100 or so out there.
Actually, 0.627 cpm3 = about 6500 cpht.
That shows your ignorance
1 cubic metre = 2.5 tonnes
so to take a carat figure per metre cubed, you multiply by 40.
If the grade was 6500 carats per hundred tonnes, C9 would be the richest deposit of diamonds anywhere in the world.
I suspect that you are talking out of your posterior..................AGAIN!
mjr1234
- 13 Jun 2005 16:55
- 806 of 1909
Ok, a genuine mistake on my part - I took cpht to mean carats per hectare!
Now, how about answering this re post 801:
Anomalous1,
What are you on about? Either your arithmetic ability is a mess, or you're deliberately trying to deceive.
If they are making 379k profit PER MONTH, then they are making 4.5M PER YEAR.
Even if we apply your twisted incorrect reasoning, and deduct $400k a month from the profit, that still equates to 2M per year PROFIT.
I don't know how stupid you think myself or other posters on here are?
It looks like you are the one who talks out of his posterior.
Now, how about answering this re post 801:
Anomalous1,
What are you on about? Either your arithmetic ability is a mess, or you're deliberately trying to deceive.
If they are making 379k profit PER MONTH, then they are making 4.5M PER YEAR.
Even if we apply your twisted incorrect reasoning, and deduct $400k a month from the profit, that still equates to 2M per year PROFIT.
I don't know how stupid you think myself or other posters on here are?
It looks like you are the one who talks out of his posterior.
Anomalous1 - 13 Jun 2005 17:02 - 807 of 1909
mjr1234 - 13 Jun'05 - 16:47 - 803 of 804
Anomalous1,
What are you on about? Either your arithmetic ability is a mess, or you're deliberately trying to deceive.
If they are making 379k profit PER MONTH, then they are making 4.5M PER YEAR.
Even if we apply your twisted incorrect reasoning, and deduct $400k a month from the profit, that still equates to 2M per year PROFIT.
I don't know how stupid you think myself or other posters on here are?
Obviously you have a great deal of difficulty comprehending the figures, so I will display the summary for the others to review for themselves:
The Gross monthly revenue (minus royalty) is $1.6 million. Deduct the expenditure required to extract it and you have only $994k. Deduct the company tax at 30% and then split the percentages to find NML's share at $379k.
(Note that the figures for Combined NML Revenue is the Annual figure - so divide by 12 to get the monthly figure)
Remembering that the Expenditure figures are the expenses made by NML to extract the diamonds in the first place adds this back into the NML income.
So whilst NML spends $605k per month on the operation, they get back ($379k + $605k) = $984 income.
The overall cashflow is positive to the value of $379k, but they have to make a expenditure of $605k to get the $984k back.
Anomalous1,
What are you on about? Either your arithmetic ability is a mess, or you're deliberately trying to deceive.
If they are making 379k profit PER MONTH, then they are making 4.5M PER YEAR.
Even if we apply your twisted incorrect reasoning, and deduct $400k a month from the profit, that still equates to 2M per year PROFIT.
I don't know how stupid you think myself or other posters on here are?
Obviously you have a great deal of difficulty comprehending the figures, so I will display the summary for the others to review for themselves:
The Gross monthly revenue (minus royalty) is $1.6 million. Deduct the expenditure required to extract it and you have only $994k. Deduct the company tax at 30% and then split the percentages to find NML's share at $379k.
(Note that the figures for Combined NML Revenue is the Annual figure - so divide by 12 to get the monthly figure)
Remembering that the Expenditure figures are the expenses made by NML to extract the diamonds in the first place adds this back into the NML income.
So whilst NML spends $605k per month on the operation, they get back ($379k + $605k) = $984 income.
The overall cashflow is positive to the value of $379k, but they have to make a expenditure of $605k to get the $984k back.
mjr1234
- 13 Jun 2005 17:08
- 808 of 1909
"The overall cashflow is positive to the value of $379k, but they have to make a expenditure of $605k to get the $984k back"
Thankyou for contradicting your earlier post. I see you now agree with me, that NML will easily be cashflow positive, so therefore you agree your earlier posts were rubbish.
Thanks for being so honest.
Thankyou for contradicting your earlier post. I see you now agree with me, that NML will easily be cashflow positive, so therefore you agree your earlier posts were rubbish.
Thanks for being so honest.
Anomalous1 - 13 Jun 2005 17:10 - 809 of 1909
mjr1234 - 13 Jun'05 - 16:55 - 805 of 806
Ok, a genuine mistake on my part - I took cpht to mean carats per hectare!
If you thought CPHT = carats per hectare, you obviously know very little about mining. Although it's a common mistake to make, if you were posting on a mining BB and arguing the toss about a company, I would have thought that you had picked that one up by now.
I'm no expert. I admit that I learn something new everyday. However, I take the time and trouble to speak with people, experts that have forgotten more about mining and geology than you or I would ever know. They have been able to explain the real situation to me in crystal clarity.
(no pun intended)
Ok, a genuine mistake on my part - I took cpht to mean carats per hectare!
If you thought CPHT = carats per hectare, you obviously know very little about mining. Although it's a common mistake to make, if you were posting on a mining BB and arguing the toss about a company, I would have thought that you had picked that one up by now.
I'm no expert. I admit that I learn something new everyday. However, I take the time and trouble to speak with people, experts that have forgotten more about mining and geology than you or I would ever know. They have been able to explain the real situation to me in crystal clarity.
(no pun intended)
Wendy D - 13 Jun 2005 17:10 - 810 of 1909
A cubic metre of diamond bearing gravel weighs about 2 - 2.4 tons. It will vary slightly according to the density of its composition.
So at the lower SG, that is .627 carats in 2 tons = 31.35 carats per 100 tons
Or at the upper SG, .627 carats in 2.4 tons = 26 cpht
So at the lower SG, that is .627 carats in 2 tons = 31.35 carats per 100 tons
Or at the upper SG, .627 carats in 2.4 tons = 26 cpht
Anomalous1 - 13 Jun 2005 17:16 - 811 of 1909
mjr1234 - 13 Jun'05 - 17:08 - 807 of 808
"The overall cashflow is positive to the value of $379k, but they have to make a expenditure of $605k to get the $984k back"
Thankyou for contradicting your earlier post. I see you now agree with me, that NML will easily be cashflow positive, so therefore you agree your earlier posts were rubbish.
Thanks for being so honest.
Hang on a sec...... I never denied that the company would not be cashflow positive, only that they might not be able to fulfill their promise to be
CASHFLOW NEUTRAL AT YEAR END
You see the subtle difference is that to fulfill that promise they have to find income of more than $2.35 million. At best, they will have income of only $984k before the end of the year. Assuming of course that they've only found 10,000 carats.
In all liklihood, they might have been able to mine at most 17,000 carats so far:
April 3,000
May 6,000
June 8,000
Even with that revenue, they probably wouldn't be able to fulfill their statement of being cashflow neutral at year-end IMO.
It just goes to show how the company has made yet another misleading statement. If they had actually received revenue, then they've missed out on announcing this (and the export license) to the shareholders.
"The overall cashflow is positive to the value of $379k, but they have to make a expenditure of $605k to get the $984k back"
Thankyou for contradicting your earlier post. I see you now agree with me, that NML will easily be cashflow positive, so therefore you agree your earlier posts were rubbish.
Thanks for being so honest.
Hang on a sec...... I never denied that the company would not be cashflow positive, only that they might not be able to fulfill their promise to be
CASHFLOW NEUTRAL AT YEAR END
You see the subtle difference is that to fulfill that promise they have to find income of more than $2.35 million. At best, they will have income of only $984k before the end of the year. Assuming of course that they've only found 10,000 carats.
In all liklihood, they might have been able to mine at most 17,000 carats so far:
April 3,000
May 6,000
June 8,000
Even with that revenue, they probably wouldn't be able to fulfill their statement of being cashflow neutral at year-end IMO.
It just goes to show how the company has made yet another misleading statement. If they had actually received revenue, then they've missed out on announcing this (and the export license) to the shareholders.
mjr1234
- 13 Jun 2005 17:25
- 812 of 1909
Given that it's not year end yet, and they have obviously not announced the figures yet, how can you say they have made a misleading statement? You are just speculating that they won't be cashflow neutral, none of us can possibly know until they give us the figures in a few months time.
GIVE THEM A CHANCE!
GIVE THEM A CHANCE!
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