NML is due its interrim results now, last year it was the 28th of this month.

They are setting up a new site to explore/research/analyse and all the equipment to do this should be on site now, and drilling should start soon, all this extra news should be covered in the interims.

does anyone have any further positive views on this company ??

Anomalous1
'The company has said that the kimberlites were being explored by third parties (unknown). ' they are not actually unknown. They are being tactful here, because it is all rather political.
As regards the diamonds, the better stones are known to be deeper down. I hardly think they are digging these holes for fun. These men are mining engineers.
You seem, by the tone of your posts, to be unwilling to believe anything good and to 'spin' information in a negative way.
I don't intend to read your prolific and vituperative posts any more.

one last thing...Leon vounteered to look at the kimberlites...wrong spin again.

"0.627 cpm3 = 25 cpht"

LOL I think you're a factor of 100 or so out there.

Actually, 0.627 cpm3 = about 6500 cpht.

mjr1234 - 13 Jun'05 - 16:02 - 792 of 797
Anomalous,
The company has stated that, once in full production, they expect to extract 10,000 cts/month leading to a profit of around $1M/month of which around $500k is attributable to NML.
Why would it be price sensitive news if they were producing enough diamonds to break-even, when they stated they expect to make $500k PROFIT?

Presumably you have repeated the statement above ad nauseum, because you haven't anything better than this or the material on the NML website with which to back up your argument.

I did a proper analysis of the NML financials and came up with a proper model that could calculate the rough value of the project. At 10,000 carats per month, the Gross profit (after expenditure) was just under $1 million. After tax at 30% this comes to $696k

The NML share (at the agreed accelerated percentage of 54.5% for the first three years) is $379k profit. Yet we know that the company has been expending +$400k per month during operations and $150k during the previous months.

So even allowing for the expenses being added back in (and we'll be generous and include $480k for operations and $119.5k for administrative/exploration) then the total revenue (to NML) would be 379k + $605k = $984k.

But before you start thinking that's a lot, remember that the company has expended well over $2.35 million in this financial year alone. So it appears from these figures that the company stands very little chance of being cashflow neutral by year end (June 2005).

You might be able to claim that they were cashflow neutral for the month, but certainly not for the year, on just 10,000 carats in June.

But what you seem to be missing most of all, is the fact that ANY NEW REVENUE STREAM is an important moment in any company's life. Indeed it is a price sensitive piece of news. The company has not announced this yet, or the fact that they have been granted the export license for the diamonds. The company can't export them without it, so this too would be price sensitive news.

By selectively picking on the 10,000 carats, you appear to be missing the bigger picture.

takahe - 13 Jun'05 - 16:25 - 799 of 801
one last thing...Leon vounteered to look at the kimberlites...wrong spin again.

Wrong again - I spoke to him on Saturday, as he's in this neck of the woods and he told me that someone (who is a frequent poster on the ADVFN BBs) asked him to look at the kimberlites. He was waiting to receive further docmentation on them, but no-one sent this. So nothing further happened.

Furthermore, Leon would be the ideal man to look at the pipes because he actually worked in Angola for some time, running a mining operation bringing in 600k carats per year. This was back during the time of the civil war. So He knows the land very well and the people.

Anomalous1,

What are you on about? Either your arithmetic ability is a mess, or you're deliberately trying to deceive.

If they are making 379k profit PER MONTH, then they are making 4.5M PER YEAR.

Even if we apply your twisted incorrect reasoning, and deduct $400k a month from the profit, that still equates to 2M per year PROFIT.

I don't know how stupid you think myself or other posters on here are?

mjr1234 - 13 Jun'05 - 16:28 - 800 of 802
"0.627 cpm3 = 25 cpht"
LOL I think you're a factor of 100 or so out there.
Actually, 0.627 cpm3 = about 6500 cpht.

That shows your ignorance

1 cubic metre = 2.5 tonnes

so to take a carat figure per metre cubed, you multiply by 40.

If the grade was 6500 carats per hundred tonnes, C9 would be the richest deposit of diamonds anywhere in the world.

I suspect that you are talking out of your posterior..................AGAIN!

Ok, a genuine mistake on my part - I took cpht to mean carats per hectare!

Now, how about answering this re post 801:

Anomalous1,

What are you on about? Either your arithmetic ability is a mess, or you're deliberately trying to deceive.

If they are making 379k profit PER MONTH, then they are making 4.5M PER YEAR.

Even if we apply your twisted incorrect reasoning, and deduct $400k a month from the profit, that still equates to 2M per year PROFIT.

I don't know how stupid you think myself or other posters on here are?

It looks like you are the one who talks out of his posterior.

mjr1234 - 13 Jun'05 - 16:47 - 803 of 804
Anomalous1,
What are you on about? Either your arithmetic ability is a mess, or you're deliberately trying to deceive.
If they are making 379k profit PER MONTH, then they are making 4.5M PER YEAR.
Even if we apply your twisted incorrect reasoning, and deduct $400k a month from the profit, that still equates to 2M per year PROFIT.
I don't know how stupid you think myself or other posters on here are?

Obviously you have a great deal of difficulty comprehending the figures, so I will display the summary for the others to review for themselves:



The Gross monthly revenue (minus royalty) is $1.6 million. Deduct the expenditure required to extract it and you have only $994k. Deduct the company tax at 30% and then split the percentages to find NML's share at $379k.
(Note that the figures for Combined NML Revenue is the Annual figure - so divide by 12 to get the monthly figure)

Remembering that the Expenditure figures are the expenses made by NML to extract the diamonds in the first place adds this back into the NML income.

So whilst NML spends $605k per month on the operation, they get back ($379k + $605k) = $984 income.

The overall cashflow is positive to the value of $379k, but they have to make a expenditure of $605k to get the $984k back.

"The overall cashflow is positive to the value of $379k, but they have to make a expenditure of $605k to get the $984k back"

Thankyou for contradicting your earlier post. I see you now agree with me, that NML will easily be cashflow positive, so therefore you agree your earlier posts were rubbish.

Thanks for being so honest.

mjr1234 - 13 Jun'05 - 16:55 - 805 of 806
Ok, a genuine mistake on my part - I took cpht to mean carats per hectare!

If you thought CPHT = carats per hectare, you obviously know very little about mining. Although it's a common mistake to make, if you were posting on a mining BB and arguing the toss about a company, I would have thought that you had picked that one up by now.

I'm no expert. I admit that I learn something new everyday. However, I take the time and trouble to speak with people, experts that have forgotten more about mining and geology than you or I would ever know. They have been able to explain the real situation to me in crystal clarity.
(no pun intended)

A cubic metre of diamond bearing gravel weighs about 2 - 2.4 tons. It will vary slightly according to the density of its composition.

So at the lower SG, that is .627 carats in 2 tons = 31.35 carats per 100 tons

Or at the upper SG, .627 carats in 2.4 tons = 26 cpht

mjr1234 - 13 Jun'05 - 17:08 - 807 of 808
"The overall cashflow is positive to the value of $379k, but they have to make a expenditure of $605k to get the $984k back"
Thankyou for contradicting your earlier post. I see you now agree with me, that NML will easily be cashflow positive, so therefore you agree your earlier posts were rubbish.
Thanks for being so honest.

Hang on a sec...... I never denied that the company would not be cashflow positive, only that they might not be able to fulfill their promise to be

CASHFLOW NEUTRAL AT YEAR END

You see the subtle difference is that to fulfill that promise they have to find income of more than $2.35 million. At best, they will have income of only $984k before the end of the year. Assuming of course that they've only found 10,000 carats.

In all liklihood, they might have been able to mine at most 17,000 carats so far:
April 3,000
May 6,000
June 8,000

Even with that revenue, they probably wouldn't be able to fulfill their statement of being cashflow neutral at year-end IMO.

It just goes to show how the company has made yet another misleading statement. If they had actually received revenue, then they've missed out on announcing this (and the export license) to the shareholders.

Given that it's not year end yet, and they have obviously not announced the figures yet, how can you say they have made a misleading statement? You are just speculating that they won't be cashflow neutral, none of us can possibly know until they give us the figures in a few months time.

GIVE THEM A CHANCE!

Oh, dear me. I unfiltered him, and wish I hadn't.

So now companies have to announce their revenue receipts to shareholders? Oh dear, imagine the BT news pages.

And they don't need an export licence as long as they sell through SODIAM - which they are probably obliged to do at the moment.

But with one statement, I do agree. Due to the delays in commencement of production, being cash flow positive by the end of June is unlikely. Whether that was a "misleading" statement or not is open to argument. You can't judge forward looking statements in retrospect. If a company makes such a statement, and events overturn it, that is not misleading. That is not a lie. That is the truth as the company saw it at the time.

Anomalous takes a statement made months ago, works out with his little brain that events have not turned out the way the company expected, and brands that statement as "misleading". It is only misleading if the company were perfectly well aware AT THE TIME THEY MADE THE STATEMENT that it was not going to work out that way. When will he ever realise that shit just happens? You can't forecast it, and at the moment, UK listed companies are not obliged to end every release with a comment such as "well, this is what we think now, but we could be wrong, because bees could sting the lorry drivers and some of them could die from anaphylactic shock, and tigers could eat the plant operators, and it might rain again, and some nasty disease could wipe us all out totally, and we might run out of biscuits, and there might be an attack by terrorists, etc etc ad nauseam."

But then it only seems to matter if they are called "New Millennium Resources" or "African Diamonds". European Diamonds can "mislead" investors all they like, and Anomalous just fawns upon them.

That's it - back to the filter. I can't deal with crap like this.

Same here WendyD, I thought he was worth arguing with, but he will not be deterred from his almost fanatical negative bias.

takahe - 13 Jun'05 - 16:24 - 798 of 810
Anomalous1
'The company has said that the kimberlites were being explored by third parties (unknown). ' they are not actually unknown. They are being tactful here, because it is all rather political.

This implies that you might know who the third parties are. How do you know that the company is withholding this information for 'political' purposes?

It might actually suit NML's purposes for them to announce that a specific major is looking at the pipes. It might actually encourage one of the others to get their skates on and make preliminary talks on the JV.

That news alone would add a considerable amount to the SP. Which in turn would benefit the company and the shareholders.

Come on speak up, how do you know the company is withholding this information because it's all 'political'?

This isn't really getting us anywhere. I really don't care who wins the argument, but perhaps you could bear in mind that there are others who use this thread to post current, new, informative information.

I have previously expressed my own doubts about NML which I continue to hold (both shares and doubts!) and I would welcome any fresh evidence for or against. But these prolix, argumentative posts constantly going over old ground (sic) just get in the way of clear thinking.

The thought that they "accelerated" the kimberlite exploration as an excuse recently to raise more funds actually needed to continue production work on the alluvial areas did cross my mind immediately - an indication in itself that the directors, if nothing else, have failed to create an aura of trust amongst shareholders.

What we all need to know is:-
how is alluvial production proceeding?
have they found any diamonds and to what value?
when can they start to turn these into revenues?
do they have enough cash to sustain the operation?

If you have concrete answers to these current and future questions please let us know. But I have no further interest in how, historically per se, we arrived at this point.

sd

Stockdog -

You asked:

"What we all need to know is:-
how is alluvial production proceeding?
have they found any diamonds and to what value?
when can they start to turn these into revenues?
do they have enough cash to sustain the operation?"

1. "According to plan" is the latest information
2. Don't know - but as they are mining a proven reserve, it is likely, tho no value is known
3. When they can sell them - which at the moment, in common with everyone bar Alrosa, is via SODIAM
4. Probably not in the short term - I can see them needing another half mill or so to take them through to revenue. Could be wrong, but it seems possible.

Anomalous1- my reference to third party(unknown)..I queried this at the time..months ago..it relates to the past, a few years ago, not the present
Also, no matter what you say...I know that LD offered to look at the kimberlites in January, to a group of shareholders