Thought I'd start a new thread as this is going to be a major talking point this year...have not made up my mind yet...(unlike bucksfizz)....but thinking of voting for an exit as Europe is not doing Britain any good at all it seems....

I stay awake worrying about you Stan.

How very touching.

That can get you locked up

Certainly in Dubai.

Hils , you said 13% of UK GDP was from the financial service sector. If we leave with no deal what tariff under WTO rules will be slapped on this sector ?

Anyone know ?

Its all here Dil

http://www.blplaw.com/media/download/Brexit_WTO_Brochure.pdf

Cheers , just read through it quickly and can see no mention of what the tariff rate is.

What I did notice though was those good EU members Germany and France have some sort of dodgy protectionist policy regarding or travel insurance going on.

Been out being walked by my dogs.

I don't believe that there are tariffs as such. Financial services are covered by regulations and law. Trading under the WTO rules would mean the loss of passporting rights which gives banks and financial service providers the right to trade within the EU with minimal additional supervision. The UK would have third country status. These are allowed to offer some services provided their regulations are equivalent to those in the EU. Moody's have stated that UK banks don't need passporting rights but I'm sure certain service providers will be effected. No doubt the lawyers are busy working on ways around, since the EU is only part of London's business and the EU relies heavily upon London for access to capital.

What % is the UK's contribution to Germany's world trade surplus? How is Germany's population age problem? Is a Merc the only car or are others available? On food - we waste a lot, higher prices may encourage us to reduce the amount. How much of the exports can substitute for the imports? Of the remaining essential foodstuff - rather than discretionary - can the UK charge a lower or zero tariff?

Cheers,
KidA

Cheers iturama , my understanding of EU tariffs is that the only real losers in the UK if we go to wto rules will be a few dozen sheep farmers in mid Wales.

As Rees Mogg pointed out on QT last night food , clothes and footwear prices are more likely to fall after we leave the EU as we will be able to scrap the higher tariffs imposed by the EU and trade freely with the rest of the world.

Exchange rate has fallen by more than the tariff for manufactured goods such as cars so that shouldn't be a problem either for our exporters but a big problem for German and French exporters.

Also re QT , think it was that clown Alex Salmond who said that he was speaking to a line manager on production at Nissan and he stated they received x thousand parts per day from suppliers and if they received them 1 minute late it would cause a problem and 6 minutes late and it would be a catastrophe .... what a load of bollox.

The parts are delivered into a Nissan run wharehouse the day before so if the line manager gets them late he's only got his own fecking staff to blame. If you believe Salmon then a 1 minute delay getting from say Germany to Sunderland would cause a problem. The guy is a fecking idiot.

Hey little englanders!.. R4 Any Questions now.

Dil,

I'm not sure what WT tarrifs, if any, there'd be on financial services post-Brexit, but that's not why I referred to the high GDP contribution of financial service.

The concern has got to be that the UK lose of that income to Frankfurt. For instance, London is where euro clearing is carried out, and that is big business (nearly $1tn a day in values of notional contracts).

EU clearing in Frankfurt and rest of world in London , not going to happen hils. Not saying we won't lose bits and bobs but only if it makes commercial sense.

Dil,

Are there fairies at the bottom of your garden?

No Fred , there were but they all left to run the Labour Party.

The business of euro clearing isn't that simple, Dil.

If the European Parliament choose to pass a law post-Brexit saying that all euro demoninated derivatives contracts must be cleared within the EU, then it's difficult to say what might happen. I suppose the UK could always take the matter to the ECJ, but if they don't agree to abide by ECJ laws post-Brexit, then good luck with that one. :o)

Shhhhhhhhh about that one.

Have a read of Will Hutton's well written thoughtful article :

"Leftie? Yes, and proud to be among those upholding Enlightenment values".

Will Hutton

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/leftie-yes-and-proud-to-be-upholding-enlightenment-values

It points to many of the apprehensions which some of those who wish to remain in Europe as partners have.

Doc,

If last year's referendum had been 'informed', then everybody would've already known about the importance of and potential problems with euro clearing. Instead of selling the plus points of EU membership, the remain camp fought a negative campaign based upon Project Fear.

The ECB know its worth, and they've already tried unsuccessfully to take euro clearing to Frankfurt, and I suspect they're already looking to try again. Probably as early as April 2019!

The last time, Gideon was able to fight it off because the UK were within the EU. Next time, I'm not so sure the UK will be so lucky. Unless, of course, something gets enshrined in law within the Brexit trade deal that every Brexiter is so cavalier about.

Victory for UK over eurozone clearing houses

How The EU Could Grab London's Euro Clearing Ops