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The Traders Thread - Monday 14th January (TRAD)     

Greystone - 13 Jan 2008 13:59

Kyoto - 14 Jan 2008 03:33 - 8 of 44

Morning all. Friday's market reports:

Telegraph
The Times
The Times (Need to know)
The Guardian
The Independent

Saturday

US stock markets plunged yesterday on fears that a host of major Wall Street banks will be forced to unveil billions more in write-downs when they report fourth-quarter results. A profits warning from American Express, which said it was taking a $275m (123m) hit from credit card defaults, added to the sense of gloom. Several influential economists now believe the US is already in recession.
US markets fall fearing bank write-downs

The cloud of uncertainty hanging over the credit markets was thrown into sharp relief yesterday as UBS told investors that it still could not be sure about the full financial impact of the credit crunch.
UBS admits that it still cannot quantify its exposure to sub-prime crisis

The price of gold topped $900 an ounce for the first time ever as traders betted the US Federal Reserve would slash interest rates, weakening the dollar and boosting the investment appeal of the precious metal. Adjusted for inflation, Gold remains below record levels however. The $875 an ounce level reached in 1981 would equate to around $2,200 today.
Gold hits $900 as economic worries escalate

Retailers recoiled in horror this week after the Bank of England kept rates on hold despite a dire Christmas on the high street. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) lashed out with claims that the decision posed a risk to the economy. Christmas sales growth was at its lowest for three years, it said.
Interest rates decision adds to retail woes

A wave of money is flooding into the commodity markets, adding more lustre to gold and pointing a spotlight on obscure markets such as coffee, cocoa and palm oil, as investors take fright from credit risk and the looming spectre of recession.
Commodity prices soar as wave of money hits markets

A report by the Environment Ministry, obtained by The Times, includes a series of bleak predictions for the nations agricultural sector and other woes as temperatures rise and weather becomes more extreme. One section suggests that ruined harvests, disease and flooding could deal a $1 trillion (510 billion) economic blow. Many experts regard that figure as a highly conservative starting point for what could, in reality, become a far heftier bill.
Asian giants at odds over shrinking atoll

Sunday

LOSSES from mortgage deals that turned sour are expected to cost Merrill Lynch $15 billion (7.6 billion), almost double its original estimate, when the Wall Street bank reports earnings this week. The losses far exceed the $12 billion hit that many Wall Street analysts had forecast.
Citi and Merrill seek $18bn rescue funds

Figures from the British Chambers of Commerce to be released on Thursday are set to add to the growing weight of evidence showing a marked slowing of the economy.
'Serious problems': report seeks rate cuts as slowdown takes hold

BUSINESS is warning of a toxic mix for Britains economy of sharply weaker growth and profits alongside powerful inflationary pressures. This poses a growing dilemma for the Bank of England, which held off cutting interest rates last week but is widely expected to cut next month.
Firms face toxic mix of rising prices and falling profits

More than a dozen high street names including HMV, Woolworths, Argos and Comet will provide updates next week but all eyes are on Tesco chief executive Sir Terry Leahy, who will report its trading update on Tuesday. Analysts say Tesco had a 'solid' Christmas and anticipate underlying growth of 4 per cent.
Boots scents success in retail gloom

THE troubled department-store chain Debenhams is tipped to shrug off retail-sector gloom this week with news of a forecast-beating rise in like-for-like sales over the festive period.
Debenhams festive sales set to shine

A new breed of 'aggregators' sift online financial information to bring you the needle but not the haystack. StrategyEye offers subscrib- ers a battlefield view of telecom, media and technology (TMT) businesses by gathering rumours, announcements, partnerships and blogs on the topic from tens of thousands of web sources round the globe.
They used to drown in a deluge of data. Now City workers have a souped-up search engine

The dangers faced by investors who use internet message boards such as ADVFN and The Motley Fool are in the spotlight ahead of several forthcoming legal actions. Nigel Smith, the private shareholder activist, is suing four retail investors for allegedly publishing defamatory remarks about him on ADVFN's bulletin boards. He has already received 20,000 in damages and costs from three other individuals.
Bulletin board posters sued for defamation

Monday

Just days after warning the US had gone into recession, Merrill Lynch is priming its richest clients to swoop on undervalued assets. The bank's high net worth clients control $2,000bn (1,021bn) of assets, making them a powerful source of potential support for nervous markets. Nick Tucker, who heads the bank's UK private client business, said: "It's no good waiting for it be on the front pages. Now is the time to look for the trends and identify the opportunities. Recession is now priced into some markets."
Merrill's top clients told to snap up assets

Two of Wall Street's biggest banks are preparing to write off tens of billions of dollars of investments in the US mortgage market, and to replace the capital with an $18bn cash infusion from emerging market investors.
American banks set for further big write-downs

The sub-prime mortgage lending crisis has seen 112 companies report write-downs of more than $170bn (87bn) but this is only the tip of the iceberg, research consultancy Advisen has warned. Analysis of the write-downs so far comes as the number of lawsuits against businesses relating to the credit crisis has climbed to 113.
More credit crisis write-downs and writs

The pound has suffered the biggest fall of any major currency over the past year, it has emerged. Sterling's dramatic recent decline means it has now weakened by even more than the dollar in the past 12 months.
Sterling takes bigger beating than the dollar

The UK commercial property market, battered throughout 2007 by falling values, is set to suffer more bad news this week with the publication of the UK annual property index from consultants IPD.
Property index predicted to show slump

Kyoto - 14 Jan 2008 03:35 - 9 of 44

AUSTRALIASHANGHAIHANG SENG
t?s=%5EAORDt?s=000001.SSt?s=%5EHSI
The Nikkei is closed today for a public holiday.

Greystone - 14 Jan 2008 06:15 - 10 of 44

Good morning traders!

In Asia today, the Hang Seng ended the morning down 8.34 points at 26,858.67,
while Japan's markets are closed for a public holiday.

Crude oil for February delivery slipped 14 cents to $92.55 a barrel in electronic trading.

Happy trading!

G.

Kyoto - 14 Jan 2008 06:48 - 12 of 44

TFN UK calendar and forecasts for today

Kyoto - 14 Jan 2008 07:13 - 14 of 44

The Monday Press Roundup

Kyoto - 14 Jan 2008 07:19 - 15 of 44

Thomson Financial UK at a glance share guide

Kyoto - 14 Jan 2008 07:47 - 18 of 44

Scottish & Newcastle (SCTN) say they are in-line with expectations. They continue to reject offers for the company. Premier Oil (PMO) are in line to meet their 2010 50,000 boepd target, production is up 8%. Balfour Beatty (BBY) say second-half trading has been strong. JJB Sports (JJB) H2 is up 2.2% but slightly below previous H2 and they are cautious on the 2008 outlook. Autonomy's (AU.) deals of the day are with Ernst & Young and Countrywide. William Hill (WMH) have finally done a deal with Turf TV, which may boost Alphameric (ALM). IG Index (IGG) have announced profits up 63% - Cantor expect it to open 8p higher.

Among the small caps SCS Upholstery (SUY) are at the lower end of expectations, and are not paying a dividend. Cenkos Securities (CNKS) have confirmed their bid for Close Brothers. CODA say they are ahead of expectations are they have been approached at 205. Sterling Energy (SEY) have plugged and abandoned a well. Aminex (AEX) may have found gas in Texas. William Ransom (RNSM) have had their manufacturing licence reinstated. Stanelco (SEO) say their loss is in line with expectations but their cash balance is ahead. Centrica (CNA) have signed a deal with Ceres Power (CWR).

Tesco (TSCO) has been dowgraded to underweight from overweight by Morgan Stanley to 375 before their results tomorrow, and Wal-Mart plan to go head-to-head with their Fresh & Easy stores in the US. William Hill (WMH) has been re-iterated at overweight with a lowered 585 price target from 630 by Morgan Stanley.

The FTSE is currently being called down 34 at 6,168 by CMC. Dow futures are currently being called down 11 at 12,595 after Friday's 247 point loss. Cantor say a fat-finger trade caused a 15-point drop in the S&P earlier.
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