I've been collecting these shares on a off for the last 4 years! Origonally for the dividend, which used to be really good, still not bad as I carried on purchasing as the price dropping accordingly!

The shares went up 22% today - if I'm not carefully I could actually be showing a healthy profit on them!

aha! .... AKZO have just sold their pharma division or similar to Schering for 11 billion ..... AKZO have been mooted as a potential suitor for ICI, and therefore move could be seen as boosting their war chest for the acquisition .... no other rationalisation (not logic!)

have bought back in today, gainst customary advice that one should not invest in the hopes of a t/o .... however, sp has certainly been holding well at about 500 and if the current rumour holds true, then some good money to be made

Mmm, my sensible head said "too soon to top up on these", my adventurous head said "go on, do it......sp is going to keep going up" so I topped up and yes, the sp went up................then it went down. My sensible head is saying "you prat", my adventurous head is saying "just wait a bit, 600p next!" Which head is going to be right? Episode 2 tomorrow, same channel.

RNS here re UBS buying out company pension fund makes interesting reading ..... will be interesting to see if it really does precipitate the long mooted t/o of ICI and/or others with similar predicament

seem to have called this one right (as well!) .... hope at least some of you came on board, even if it is a proper company as opposed to some spivvy E&P or similar

well done cynic - is it too late ??

depends how brave you are ...... there will almost certainly be at least one counter-bid, but there is always the smallish risk that the authorities will ultimately block any t/o

how to make the chart fit the story!



looking back over the last year, where sp has dipped below 50 dma, it has quickly rebounded.
yesterday's close sees sp just below this, and given a steady wind, a rebound could or even should be on the cards very shortly.
as if by magic (lol), i bet monday will see sp rocket back up to +/-620, even though the general market is likely to be pretty bleak yet again

i wonder why????????

There's always the other side of the story!

I haven't read the article, but..........

Yet another substantial fall on the DOW will no doubt keep the FTSE in negative territory on Monday and whatever news is to be announced I remain nervous about any long positions.

As can be seen from the chart there are a plethora of trendlines to choose from, the lower of which is the main support at 534p. The one above is the next one in line and coincides with SP support at 563p. I'm going to remain bearish and say they are my targets despite the possibility of any announcements on Monday or press reaction. However, with the danger of an upward spike on the cards I wouldn't put any money on it!!! :))

PT .... whatever you do, don't short ICI ...... 3/4 page in Telegraph re Akzo tabling enhanced bid at +/-625 within next week (or so)

Cynic have no intention of opening a short position, as you say an enhanced bid of 620p+ amy well gap the SP up before the open tomorrow. Will be interesting to see how that fights the inevitable FTSE fall.

indeed .... but thought i would have a little fun and sport by making the chart fit the theory! ...... i am overweight in ICI, so i hope the silly buggers do not overplay their hand and scare away the suitor(s)

bearing in mind today's RNS, it must surely be a racing certainty that ICI's figures on thursday will be top drawer in order to justify the board's demand for a higher bid ...... question for holders and would be new investors is whether or not such an offer will be forthcoming from Akzo or another, and whether it will be significantly more than the 650 now on the table

with sp only at 621, it could be well-argued that this makes a decent gamble (sorry; investment!) ...... firstly, it is inconceivable that ICI's figures on thursday will not be good, thus justifying the claim that 650 is undervaluing ..... secondly, following those figures, Akzo may already have something extra in reserve to put on the table ..... thirdly, it is not inconceivable that a third party will step into the fray thus starting a bid battle as happened with Corus.

don't say this often, but "Told you so!" .... Akzo all set to bid 670, so reckon ICI at 650+ to allow for time-lag and residual undertainty, with still the outside chance that Dow or Dupont will through their hats in the ring at the last moment, as happened with Corus

Congratulations to Cynic from reading this post back from today - a very good call.

My query is that with an indicative 670p + possibly 5-8p dividend as well, even with the competition commission threat is the current 640 sp too bearish.

Buying now if the above offer pans out gives a 5% return after costs, which possibly might have to wait for 3-4 months, but that's not bad against possibly a rough 2nd half for the market generally.

Am I being overly optimistic?

no you're not though with sp now at 640 you may think of better places to invest .... as a holder already i am very happy to sit back and wait

unless something extraordinary happens, the deal looks done and dusted @ 670 + 5 divi ..... likley completion in November ..... with sp at a silly 639, this is surely a very safe place to put money with an annualised return surely in mid teens