yup broke through it about 10 mins ago. My thought are this at the moment, go for the Yank companies, BEMA gold. Ok yes I put up a speculative buy on Thistle and I am still holding but I have taken top end profits. One that could suprise is Minmet, no SA problems or african problems, mines in Sweden and looking at last strong.

Cheers GF.

As promised but a lttle late thee news article on BEMA GOLD.

Minews Story



Date : October 21, 2003



Kupol Gold Project In Chukotka Is Key To The Future Of Bema Gold.


Bema Gold, a mid-tier gold producer in Canada came quietly onto AIM a couple of weeks ago. Quietly, apart from a shindig at Claridges to announce that the secondary listing had been achieved by way of introduction. No money was raised as it is well funded, but this has meant that the amount of information available to UK investors was limited. It also meant that liquidity in London was comparatively small, though the company trades huge amounts of shares daily in Toronto. The object of the listing was not money, but to raise the profile of Bema among European investors according to Clive Johnson, Bema’s chief executive.

As a first step Tim Hoare, the redoubtable boss of its London brokers Canaccord , suggested to Mr Johnson that a presentation be given at the next Minesite Mining Forum in November. An invitation had, in fact, been sent to him a couple of weeks earlier, but no answer had been received. He seemed in favour and at his suggestion another letter was sent, but with the same result. In the meantime Minews had, on advice, adopted a fall-back position in case Mr Johnson could not make it. Contact had been made with Bema’s man, or rather men, in London, so that if necessary one of them should step into the breach. Bema, after all, is establishing an office in South Kensington from which its UK/European PR/IR campaign can be operated.

Memories went back to when Henry Clive did a similar job for John Jones of Troy Resources at the 11th Minesite Mining Forum in June. Henry used to be a stockbroker and it is to his credit that Troy now has over 30 per cent of its equity in UK hands without bothering with an AIM listing. Whisper it quietly, lest it get to Australia, but he did a job as good as, if not better , than his boss. Unfortunately things did not go so smoothly with Bema. Mr Johnson, according to his London team, has to attend to family matters in November so cannot make the next Forum. He does not want either of his two representatives to take his place , so the next time it may be possible for him to appear is February.

Mr Johnson is a good promoter. No doubt about that, and a string of fundings has been completed to prove it. At Claridges he managed to give a very upbeat talk without once mentioning the Petrex acquisition in South Africa which cost his company C$67 million about a year ago. For this it purchased the Golden Reefs mines on the Witwatersrand as well as eight production shafts and a mill which produced 146,000 ounces of gold in the year to end June 2002 at a cash cost of US$194/ounce according to Canadian stockbrokers Loewen, Ondaatje, McCutcheon. Based on an independently audited 10 year mine plan, the mine is projected to produce an average of 185,000 ounces of gold per year with operating cash costs estimated at approximately US$185 per ounce. With some expansion here and there, plus mining slightly higher grade material , it is now expected to be producing at a rate of 200,000 ounces/annum by the end of this year.

Then was then and now is now and there seems little doubt that the strength of the rand in the intervening period has injected a bit of pain into the proceedings, currency put options notwithstanding.. Nevertheless the additional production means that Bema has been able to forecast 300,000 ozs for next year from South Africa and the Julietta gold mine in Russia at an average price of US$200/oz. In addition to this there is the Refugio mine in Chile which is jointly owned with Kinross. This may be restarted towards the end of 2004 and it would add a further 115,000 ounces to Bema’s annual production, but at a high cost. The same goes for the Cerro Casale deposit in Chile where Bema has a 24 per cent interest. If Placer Dome decides to go ahead with it, more high cost ounces will be added to Bema’s production portfolio.

This is the crux of the matter. Bema has to decide if it wants to be a high cost, or a low cost producer which is where the Kupol gold project comes into play. A 75 per cent interest was acquired shortly after the South African deal and it is up in Chukotka near Julietta. Kupol hosts a large epithermal gold and silver vein system that is up to 30 metres wide with significant values over a true width of up to 15 metres and Canaccord believes that it has all the earmarks of a world class deposit. The latest drilling results confirmed the continuing high grade gold mineralization over 3.1 kilometres of drilled strike length and to a depth of at least 300 metres. Grades as high as 35.56 g/t gold and 865.51 g/t silver over 9.6 metres were encountered.

Opinion is hardening that this may be a 10 million ounce deposit. More will be known in January when an initial resource estimate is published. It would then be possible to move to pre-feasibility in short order and on to a bankable feasibility study within 12 months. Obviously it will be a low cost open pit operation and Clive Johnson has said that that it could be in production by 2007 at a rate of between 700,000 and 1 million ozs of gold a year. This would mean mining around 900,000 tonnes/annum of the high grade ore in the North Zone and Big Bend regions and the capital cost of developing the mine would be around US$200 million. The amazing thing is that net of silver credits the gold would be produced at a cost of virtually zero. It is difficult to find a simpler and better story than that, so more is the pity that Mr Johnson chose not to let his London team explain it to the Minesite audience. It would have also given them a chance to introduce themselves.ENDS.

Yup, looks like top bombing to me, if this isnt a world classplayer show me one better and I have both avocet and thistle but this one is the gem amongst them.

cheers gf.

NOV 19 2003................GOLD = 400.30
Spot price in Asia Trading.The first time + 400 since 1996
This info only recently became known.
g.f.It did not break 400 anywhere else and this was the Spot Price.
London a.m. was 397.15
London p.m. was 395.15
New York highest was 398.30

Also Hong Kong - Nov 19 - 399.15 = + 6.30 Dollars.399.15 was also Unique and
almost unknown about.

Nov 20 - today :-
World Spot Price for Asia/Europe/New York = 394.80 : + .30 from New York Close

As I said before : I do not trade in mining so have no opinion.

Yesterday I got a BUY recommendation for :-

Barrick Gold : www.barrick.com

@ a 21 dollar price they - not me - estimated a 249 per cent upside i.e.73 dol.

I get Live prices e.g.:-
394.80 above is Now 395.90
Cheers aj

Now 395.50 : 11.50 a.m rgds aj

Great day for BEMA so far ajren. Think it may have a good day on the US markets aswell due to bombs in Turkey. What a sad place the world is today.

GF.

It's probably not time to dive in yet, but don't lose sight of Conroy Diamond and Gold CDG. Have a look at their web site for all the technical stuff, but basically they've found plenty of it in Ireland, but for the moment seem content to keep on test drilling and assaying. One day Prof. Conroy will start digging it up and flogging it - that's when I want to be holding a load of their shares.
Their Diamond interests in Finland are also worth keeping an eye on.

Agreed kaygee, definitely one for the future.

World Spot closed @ 393


London a.m.=395.75
London p.m.=394.30

I cannot understand this as it should have gone to 400 + because of bombs.
Opinions ?

It will go ajren, if not tomorrow then sometime in the next couple of weeks. Look out for OXS - a presentation today by Bill Trew, the CEO of Oxus, at the 2nd Annual Gold Investment Summit. He's a smooth operator, and the last time he did a presentation the price rocketed. OXS will be worth at least 1 by Christmas imop.

what price do u think Bema Gold will get to by christmas time or early part of 2004.
I'm thinking of buying into them but maybe i have missed out by the sudden increase esp in the last week or so.

And does anyone have a realistic view of share price of Avocet mining as they have interim results out on the 26th.

Thanks for any replies and for all of the above info

Friday November 21, 2:46 PM
Professional Gold Investors Say Shares Appear Stretched
(This story was originally published Thursday)

By Michael Wang
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


LONDON (Dow Jones)--Top professional gold investors warned Thursday that share valuations are looking "stretched" but fell short of issuing a sell recommendation.

That's because many feel the spot gold price - already hovering at seven-and-a-half year highs - hasn't finished its run.

Graham Birch, head of Merrill Lynch Investment Management's natural resources team, said based on a rule-of-thumb that cyclical commodity prices roughly double after they have reached the bottom, gold still has some upside.

"If we say that the bottom of the cycle was roughly $250 (an ounce), than we could be looking at $500 (an ounce)," he said on the sidelines of a gold investment conference here.

In the past seven months, the precious metal has appreciated by 25%. In late European trading Thursday, spot gold was hovering around $393.50 an ounce, down from about $400 an ounce Wednesday.

But fund managers said, at the moment, gold-share prices appear to have got carried away based on historic valuations. Factors such as replacing production with reserves, cutting costs and boosting profitability are also powerful determinants of share value, they said.

"Valuationsare a little bit stretched," said David Whitten, head of a global resources fund at Australia's Colonial First State (CFI.AU). He was referring to such standard measurement ratios as price to earnings, enterprise value to earnings before interest and tax, and the internal rate of return of gold mining companies.

"We mightsee a little correction (downward) in the gold market," Walter Wehrli, a Zurich-based gold-fund advisor, predicted, noting signs of share-price "overheating" in some junior gold miners.

Echoing other market sentiments, John Hathaway, managing director, of Tocqueville Asset Management LP, asked: "Is it time to take the money off the table?"

Hathaway didn't offer an answer, other than to say he felt a spot gold price north of $400 is sustainable. In 2004, "$400 an ounce will look like $300 an ounce does now," he forecast.

But he warned that one of the biggest "challenges for global mining companies (is) to maintain output at current levels."

The task is difficult given long lead times in booking reserves from exploration and the heftier costs attached with companies mining increasingly exotic and remote areas -such as the former Soviet Union, Southeast Asia and South America.

Nevertheless, the fund managers did offer investors their best share picks for the sector.

Wehrli is tipping Australia's Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd. (KCN.AU) as a hot buy.

He noted the company's sub-$150/oz cash cost profile, rising profitability, accumulating reserves picture and generous 7% dividend as key supports.

MLIM's Birch punted South Africa's Harmony Gold Mining Co. (HAR.JO) as one of his favorites given its world-beating reserves profile. Harmony's status would be even more improved were it not for the near doubling in the value of the South African rand against the dollar in the last 23 months, he noted.

Wehrli added that a good model for picking gold mining winners is to find exploration companies that are just about to go into production.

On that score, London-based Oxus Gold (OXS.LN) is a candidate as it is scheduled to pour its first gold in Uzbekistan around Christmas.

I think Dow Jones report is nonsense:-

Gold is 393.85 now in u.k.-considerably down than Before terrorism.I think
the price will be 398/399 on tuesday.IF I am right it is a great opportunity
to buy now.Opinions ?

New York Spot Price :-

Ask = 396.00

Bid = 395.50

World spot price

Ask = 394.00

Bid = 393.50

Looks like my forecast of 398/399 - last week - for tomorrow is completely wrong

http://Gold chart - week of Nov24

ajren, I think the US$ is staging a brief rally = price of gold going down.

Yup looks that way scottie. Dollar strengthining this afternoon.

cheers Gf.

>Gold execs predict output shift

By: Ken Gooding


Posted: 2003/11/21 Fri 06:59 ZE2 | Mineweb 1997-2003


LONDON – Ten years from today global gold production will be dominated by Russian and other central Asian countries that once made up the former Soviet Union.
This prediction was confidently made today by executives of some of the companies in the vanguard of this massive change. They were speaking at the Gold Investment Summit organised by Euromoney publications and the World Gold Council.

The speed of the potential build-up was illustrated by Kevin Foo, managing director of AIM listed Celtic Resources Holdings. He pointed out that, if the plans of only four of the junior companies operating in the region came to fruition, their combined gold annual output would jump by more than 200 percent between 2004 and 2006 – from 788,000oz to 2.5moz.

The companies used for this example, apart from Celtic itself, were Highland Gold, High River Gold and Peter Hambro Mining.

Celtic is operating in Russia and Kazakhstan and Foo said there had been many recent changes in the region that had vastly improved the political climate. Legal, tax and fiscal regimes had also improved. At the same time “the opportunities are vast.”

Nevertheless, gold companies operating in the region should always keep a wary eye open for “factor X” or the unexpected. “Always have a plan for the worst case.”

Foo said the highly fragmented Russian gold industry was being consolidated in “a new gold rush.”

Bill Trew, chief executive of Oxus Gold, also looked for a new gold rush – this time in Uzbekistan, where his company is about to bring a new US$30m gold mine into operation. This took only eight months to construct and Trew suggested this was the shortest time ever taken to bring a mine of its size – 200,000oz a year – into production.

Emphasising the potential of Uzbekistan, Trew said Oxus had plans to build five mines in five years there and to acquire 100,000oz of production.

He pointed out that Uzbekistan had the fourth biggest gold reserves of any country in the world and was already the ninth biggest gold producer. He predicted that the country would rapidly move up the table of gold producing countries and that “ten years from now all the major gold producers will be operating in central Asia.”

For the time being, however, some are not showing immense enthusiasm. Jay Taylor, president of Placer Dome, one of the speakers, was asked for his opinion, and said his group had disbanded its Russian office recently because it could see better opportunities elsewhere. “We have 40m ounces in projects and 40m in resources, so we have our hands full at present.”

Responding to a delegate’s question, Peter Hambro, executive chairman of Peter Hambro Mining, which next year will celebrate ten years of operating in Russia, said that during that time he had found it remarkably free of graft and corruption. His company was recently unsuccessful in an auction for a gold property but the auction process itself was very fair and not biased towards Russian companies.