Taylor Woodrow is now notching daily gains, after the price was driven down by MM's during the share buy back, being managed well by the MM's and it is expected to break 300pence on the climb - consensus is that is PBT is 450M then 320p to 350p is not out of range. One to watch in the coming weeks and months, time to get on board is now.

The bonus is the shares just brought back would appear to be ammunition for a buying spree, now who are they going to buy ? They are held as treasury shares, I think something exciting is going to happen here soon.

July 09, 2004

Tempus

Housebuilder enjoys sunny skies regardless of British weather
By Robert Cole



TAYLOR WOODROW, the housebuilder, has catapulted itself into the big league in the past three years with the takeover of Bryant and, more recently, of Wilson Connolly. In recent years the big is best mantra has held sway in the sector on the presumption that size gives firms the muscle to buy larger sites and benefit from greater purchasing power.
Taylor has hardly had time to digest these acquisitions and prove whether this really is the case, but yesterday it reassured investors that it was on track to deliver 12.5 million of cost savings from the Wilson Connolly deal this year, rising to 25 million in 2005.



Since the Wilcon takeover Taylor has managed to deliver a solid performance. With average selling prices moving steadily ahead, full-year profits are set to come in at the top end of expectations.

However, Taylor Woodrow is different from most UK quoted housebuilding rivals courtesy of its substantial presence in North America. Taylors international operations are often ignored by the City but this may be set to change. If the UK market cools the US business could provide an important counterbalance.

The company builds in sunny states such as California and Florida, where there are good job markets and a steady stream of new people wanting to settle. The US housing market is performing particularly strongly right now and people are buying Taylor homes as fast as the company can build them. Each of the states it builds in is at least the same size as the total UK housing market, so there is plenty of room left for growth.

Shares in the company have fallen almost 20 per cent since they peaked at 299p in April, putting them among the cheaper stocks in the sector. In part, this is because of the suspicion that the companys management team, which comes largely from outside the industry, may cope less well than rivals in a downturn. There is also a view that Taylors landbank may have been bought more expensively than some rivals because it only completed the Wilcon takeover last year.

The fact that Taylor is managed by people who are not dyed-in-the-wool housebuilders brings a welcome freshness in approach. Shares, which give an above average dividend yield of 4.3 per cent, should be held.

Going strong now, in the 280's and should soon be testing 300p IMO, would expect it to go to around 320 on this climb. The Fundamentals are excellent and do not support the present low rating.

Looks like we are going to the 300's after all :-)

283, holding well and more buys coming in.

UBS just stated this is a Buy, so thats good.

IC said sell ?? with some sound reasoning

far more sells than buys today - I can only expect more sales once all the punters open their copies of IC from the doormat.

Many in the sector are rising today - any ideas why?

A few comments in the daily papers might have had an effect, such as "house prices up" and "more mortgages completed for December" ?

We have been looking at houses north of London (although we live in Yorkshire at present) for the last year and have seen quite drastic price drops and incentives galore (ie deposit paid, legal costs paid etc.) maybe I am wrong but it doesn't look long term positive to me imho ?? Incidentally Yorkshire is generally similar, except a few hot spots which always are popular.

This is just our perception - could be living in a bubble I suppose ? Would be interesting to hear others outlook.

The suggestion of interest rate rises should curb enthusiasm.

I started it, and said 300p - and so to finish the thread now is the time to sell it.

Why do you think the US$ is so low ? Because if you want interest rates high (which Bush needs) it will screw the dollar and make it too strong - so let it go down and then rise interest rates and you get high interest rates and the dollar where it always was.

What does this mean - well it means that in 2005 expect US and UK interest rates up - by QUITE A LOT.

House prices will start to go down - then once they start to go down, the dump will come and a big drop.

TWOD to be quite low at the end of this year and 2006 - time to sell is now.

I have sold all mine :) at the 300 predicted at the start of the thread :)))))

Also expect the interest rates (UK) will rise if there is any sniff of a real house price increase, the US housing market is a bubble waiting to burst.

I am short on CWD and TWOD, expect both to fall but the present sector keeps rising and to some high levels over the last 2 days - doesn't do the margin account any good. As well as the opinion on the outcome of interest rates and housing the TA also backs up the theory and the 300p / 306p price limit, unless it breaks through the limit, but on the outlook for the sector I would have expected not to. You never know where the money will be thrown, as EK stated there are a lot of fools around with lots of spare cash. Just hope I am not one of them.

Minx