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Updated 6/14 for Tuesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 6/15
UP Above 10,360
DN Below 10,300

Downmove
Dow sells off at Open, trends lower to the Close.

From prior commentary, "...should the Dow break the clear lower trend line at 10,350, seen in the 60 Minute Chart, we can expect a move lower, especially if 10,300 is violated..."
The Dow broke the 10,350 level early in the session, fueling weakness to the Close, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The index ended the day lower by 75 points and is now holding above the key 10,300 level.

The Daily Chart shows the Dow is showing weakness near the major upper trend line at around 10,430. We could see the index hold at the highs for some time, as a trading range develops, especially if 10,300 continues to hold. Otherwise, a break below 10,300 will signal a continuation lower, likely toward 10,200.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a clear trend line across the highs of today's downmove. An upside break through 10,340 will indicate strength at the Open, while a break below 10,300 will signal further weakness.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the market Short at 10,347 and are still in the trade. We will continue to hold stops at the entry for tomorrow's market and will stay Short below 10,300. We will look to enter Longs above 10,360; using 20 points stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The S&P and NASDAQ each pushed steadily lower today, pulling back from recent highs. Each is now approaching key support, which will be important to medium term direction. *

Summary

The Dow pushed steadily lower throughout the session today, ending the day lower by 75 points. Look for the index to form a range at the highs, should the 10,300 level hold. Otherwise, a break here could spark much more weakness.

60

morning all

Morning punters.

Long 3 oil stocks. Dunno how I managed that.

Have a good day.

Morning all

Morning all, I seem to be long CTM for some reason.

long ARM 118.5

Interest rate rise coming home to roost on builders?

Seems a general move down now.

Short WHT

saxo bank analysis by R.Balan
rgds
zarif


ublished: Jun. 15 2004, 07:01 GMT

The Dow may fall further to 10,360, possibly to as low as 10,100 - 10,100


European stocks slid, paced by companies whose sales are most sensitive to economic expansion, amid concern interest rates in the U.S. may rise more than expected this year, braking global growth.







June 14, 2004 - EUROPE



- The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged at a board meeting in Tokyo as an accelerating recovery in the world's second-biggest economy hasn't ended six years of price declines. Governor Toshihiko Fukui and his eight policy board colleagues maintained the upper limit of the central bank's target for reserves available to lenders at 35 trillion yen ($316 billion) and kept interest rates at almost zero at a two-day meeting ended today, the bank said. The decision was unanimous. The government last week raised its estimate of first- quarter growth to a 6.1 percent annual pace from 5.6 percent. Japan's longest recovery since 1997 has prompted economists to expect the central bank to shift away from its policy of pumping money into the economy as early as next year as deflation may be nearing an end.


- Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the risk of a decline in house prices is increasing, the central bank's latest attempt to cool the housing market after raising interest rates four times since November. "After the hectic pace of price rises over the past year it is clear that the chances of falls in house prices are greater than they were,'' King said in the text of a speech in Glasgow, Scotland. The proportion of people's income spent on buying homes has risen to ``record levels'' and is now ``well above what most people would regard as sustainable in the longer term.'' This is the strongest warning yet about the risk of house- price declines from a Bank of England policy maker, and the first from the head of the bank. Chief Economist Charles Bean said this month that house prices will either fall or stagnate.



- The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged at a board meeting in Tokyo as an accelerating recovery in the world's second-biggest economy hasn't ended six years of price declines. Governor Toshihiko Fukui and his eight policy board colleagues maintained the upper limit of the central bank's target for reserves available to lenders at 35 trillion yen ($316 billion) and kept interest rates at almost zero at a two-day meeting ended today, the bank said. The decision was unanimous. The government last week raised its estimate of first- quarter growth to a 6.1 percent annual pace from 5.6 percent. Japan's longest recovery since 1997 has prompted economists to expect the central bank to shift away from its policy of pumping money into the economy as early as next year as deflation may be nearing an end.


- Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the risk of a decline in house prices is increasing, the central bank's latest attempt to cool the housing market after raising interest rates four times since November. "After the hectic pace of price rises over the past year it is clear that the chances of falls in house prices are greater than they were,'' King said in the text of a speech in Glasgow, Scotland. The proportion of people's income spent on buying homes has risen to ``record levels'' and is now ``well above what most people would regard as sustainable in the longer term.'' This is the strongest warning yet about the risk of house- price declines from a Bank of England policy maker, and the first from the head of the bank. Chief Economist Charles Bean said this month that house prices will either fall or stagnate.







Equity Market Summary -



Asian stocks fell on concern a U.S. report today will show accelerating inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates faster than expected. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index, which tracks more than 900 stocks, slipped 0.9 percent to 87.37 at 11:41 a.m. in Tokyo. It lost 2.1 percent in the past two sessions. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average sank 1.2 percent, South Korea's Kospi index fell 0.6 percent and Taiwan's Taiex index dropped 0.4 percent. Benchmarks in markets opened for trading declined except for those in China, Hong Kong and the Philippines.

U.S. stocks fell Monday on concern government reports this week may show inflation is accelerating, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more quickly than some investors had forecast. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 11.18, or 1 percent, to 1125.29. All 10 industry groups retreated. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 75.37, or 0.7 percent, to 10,334.73. Both benchmarks had their biggest decline in almost a month. The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 29.88, or 1.5 percent, to 1969.99.

The U.S. economic data was mixed Monday, with May retail sales growth besting the consensus, but the trade deficit widening by more than expected in April. The details of the retail sales report were encouraging, despite the lion?s share of growth attributable to a surge in auto and gasoline sales. The spending data was well received by financial markets, as it essentially put to rest fears about a significant moderation in consumption in the second quarter. The unexpected jump in the trade deficit to a new monthly record intensified concern regarding required foreign investment needed to offset the growing imbalance.

The inflationary data in Europe and recent Fed comments have increased anticipation amongst market participants that interest rate hikes will come sooner, rather than later. As a result, stock markets have headed south Monday, with the DAX, CAC-40, and FTSE-100 shedding 1.9%, 1.4% and 1.0%, respectively.




Equity Technicals:


- DAX Index - the index fell further and has been to 3940 -- we continue to hold on to the short-term scenario of a pullback to ideally 3825 - 3800 before the bullish medium-term view reasserts. However, the caveat remains -- that is, if the DAX goes through 4050, then it is unlikely that we will see this magnitude of a pullback. Nonetheless, the medium-term outlook remains unchanged -- expect a new upwards cycle which should go on and challenge the 4175 top further out, and perhaps go on and focus at a 4500 upside target later in the year. However, if the rally extends above 4,050, then the +pullback scenario+ is probably wrong.


- FTSE 100 Index - the index went lower further -- it fell to 4430. The view is unchanged -- we still hold out for the scenario of a short-term cascade to the 4395 area. . However, the view of a large pullback may still be nullified if the index rallies above 4515. But despite this, continue to make allowances for a +test of the base+ type of corrective decline, the target of which is the area of 4395 - 4380 late in the week -- unless of course the upside swing level is blown away.. The next upwards phase from there may kick off a new upside sequence which will go on and challenge the 4600 top, and perhaps extend gains further towards 4750 later in the year.


- S&P 500 - the sell-off has been to as low as 1122. It may bounce back somewhat today, back to 1128. But further sell-off during the week may yet bring the index to at least 1115. We may yet a shot at 1100 - 1090 area before the bull is set loose. In any case, recent action is indeed supportive of the view that the new bull market cycle may have began and would accelerate higher at some point. The new upwards phase may go on and challenge the 1165 top, and thereafter extend gains to 1225 - 1230 later in the year.


- Dow Jones Ind Ave. - the index may bounce back to 10,360, but the scenario remains -- we may yet see further declines to at least 10,150 in the next few days. And we still are biased for a bigger decline to 10,1000 -10,000. Nonetheless, a new bull market waits in the wings to be confirmed -- eventually, we expect to see a rally to the 10,800 top, and perhaps further appreciation towards 11,500 later in the year.


- NDX 100 - we may see apullback to 1460, but the index should continue to trade lower in the next few days. The index may do a corrective decline back to at least 1440, possibly even to 1405 - 1395 area -- a +test of the base+ type of correction. A new bull market waits in the wings -- we expect to see a test of the 1560 top thereafter, and perhaps further appreciation towards 1700 later in the year.


- Nikkei - the index weakened further and has gone below 11.400 --we may yet that +test of the base+ decline to 10,900. Allow for a retest of the base, which in this case may be 10,900. A new bull market should emanate from there, which may have 14,000 as the major goal late in the year. The short-term view however fails if the current rally goes above 11,600.


- Hang Seng - the index foiund support at 12,000. but should resume the decline later in the week. Still make allowances for a corrective decline back to 11,600 from here, a +test of the base+ type of retracement. The bull markets should then resume and may target the 16,500 - 17,000 area later in the year.

Morning all,

Looks like we're still range trading, waiting for the break.
Unless you do nothing and wait for the break, which may be
Eons in the future, all you can do is trade the range with
realistic stops. Same as the commentary in TP's Dow posts.

By the way, it was the Kinks, not the Beatles.
I can hear Ray Davies twang, even now, in my mind's ear.

Melnibone.

belated mornin all

No it was the Beatles surely?. :-)

All this is before my time!

Having an excellent morning - decided to scalp CTM both long & short - so far
closed equivelent to 3.5+ since the market opened and now long @ 84p

Sunny Afternoon was sung by the KINKS

Ok, It was the Kinks!

now if you don't mind i will just go bash myself over the head with a frying pan.

Decided to buy some PSN for the long term portfolio (sold last lot in April,
at 1 more than the current price).

I've just noticed - CNA seems to be paying 2 final divi of 3.7p! One for 28 April, and the other 16 June.

Anyone fancy trying to shed some light?

Figured it out - the second date is the pay date, not the ex div date as is
recorded on this site!

Housebuilders seem to be bouncing off support. At least up to this moment.

tom hogards email copy for u to peruse.

Wow, Europe is the most quiet I have experienced in weeks. We got some important time counts coming up. For example we got the Dow hitting a 0.618 time count later in the week. However, there is just so little going on and the market seems very confused. If you look at individual stocks they are trading in a very narrow range. The time cycles are still spinning out good turns in the market. I will cover some of them later on in the day and send them out to you.



I looked at the big picture yesterday and I would like to continue in that vein today. The SP500 is barely up for the year and neither is the Dow. As a matter of fact the indices have gone nowhere for the last 6 months. Is that bullish? Is that bearish? There is no easy answer to that question. However, history has taught me that when you least expect a big move (in this case over the summer period) you should expect one. I said it yesterday and I will say again today: get ready. I expected a down day yesterday and I got 75 Dow points. Is this the beginning of the big move? As long as we are below 1132 I am bearish.



I got today as a wish-wash between bullish and bearish but I will short any rally today even if it does temporarily gets above 1132 because I am expecting Wednesday and Friday to be down hard. This is based on the Map I do. This is my strategy. A close above 1132 will make me nervous and I will close out my shorts if the market settles above 1132. The big turn of the day does not come until 19:00 19:40 which is about 90 minutes before the close in the US.



Good luck today



Tom