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Daily Forex Forecast
By FX Unigma
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House price rises at weakest since Iraq war
Money: House price inflation slowed to its weakest in 10 months in June after higher interest rates and strong Bank of England warnings, estate agents say.
Guardian Unlimited Money

Daily Forex Forecast
Tuesday, July 20, 2004 6:03 GMT
Daily Forex Forecast
By FX Unigma
http://fx.unigma.com


Daily Forecast 20 July 2004 - 7:00 AM GMT

EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.2465 - 1.2300
Trend: Downward
Sell at 1.2453 SL 1.2485 TP 1.2314
USD/JPY
Trading range: 108.20 - 110.05
Trend: Upward
Buy at 108.34 SL 107.02 TP 109.93
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.8705 - 1.8460
Trend: Downward
Sell at 1.8693 SL 1.8729 TP 1.8474
USD/CHF
Trading range: 1.2265 - 1.2405
Trend: Upward
Buy at 1.2276 SL 1.2244 TP 1.2392
Today's Economic Calendar:
Time GMT, Country, Indicator, Forecast, Prior

06:45 France May Current Account N/A +E203M
08:30 UK June M4 M/M N/A +1.2%
08:30 UK June M4 Y/Y N/A +7.8%
08:30 UK June M4 Stg Lend N/A +?9.7B
08:30 UK June Net Consumer Credit N/A +?1.6B
08:30 UK June Net Lend Dwellings N/A +?8.6B
08:30 UK June PSNCR N/A +?3.1B
08:30 UK June Public Sector Net Borrow N/A +?6.7B
09:00 Germany July ZEW Curr Situation N/A -69.8
09:00 Germany July ZEW Expect N/A 47.4
12:30 US June Housing Starts N/A 1967K
12:30 US June Building Permits N/A 2077K
12:30 Canada June Leading Indice N/A +1.2%
12:30 Canada May Wholesale Sales M/M N/A +1.0%

DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH TODAY: July 21 - Europe



- Japan's economy will probably grow 3.5 percent in the fiscal year ending March 31, almost double the initial forecast and the most in eight years, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo. The new forecast compares with a 1.8 percent expansion predicted in December. Consumer prices will fall 0.1 percent this fiscal year, less than the earlier estimate of a 0.2 percent slide, according to the report released in Tokyo. Rising exports and capital spending are sparking a revival in consumer demand, which makes up half of the world's second-largest economy, the Cabinet Office said.


- Japan's trade surplus probably narrowed in June as exports to China cooled while a two-year economic expansion at home sustained demand for imported goods, economists said. The trade surplus probably narrowed 2.7 percent from May to 1.25 trillion yen ($11.5 billion), seasonally adjusted, according to the median of forecasts. The Ministry of Finance is due to release its trade report at 8:50 a.m. tomorrow.


- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said a recent slowdown in consumer spending because of inflation ``should prove short-lived'' and that the central bank can continue to raise interest rates at a ``measured'' pace. ``Inflation also seems to have been boosted by transitory factors such as the surge in energy prices,'' Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee. ``Those higher prices, by eroding households' disposable income, have accounted for at least some of the observed softness in consumer spending of late, a softness which should prove short-lived.'' The Federal Open Market Committee, in a related report, predicted the economy will grow as much as 4.75 percent in 2004 from last year's fourth quarter, down from a 5 percent estimate in February. Retail sales and industrial production fell in June, job gains trailed forecasts, and a report today showed an unexpected drop in housing starts. Stocks and bond prices fell.


- Microsoft Corp., awash with more cash than any U.S. company outside the financial industry, will return more than $75 billion to shareholders over the next four years through a special payout, stock buybacks and a higher dividend. The shares rose after Microsoft said it will buy back as much as $30 billion in stock over four years and spend $32 billion, or $3 a share, on a one-time dividend. The company said in a statement it will double its dividend to 32 cents a year. Chief Executive Steve Ballmer, 48, responded to investor pressure to return some of the Redmond, Washington-based company's $56.4 billion in cash. The plan is the largest return of capital ever for a U.S. company and is bigger than the entire market value of all but 24 other members of the Standard & Poor's 500 index.


- The Bank of Canada left its benchmark interest rate at 2 percent, saying the rise in oil prices isn't driving up its preferred measure of inflation fast enough to warrant an increase in borrowing costs yet. The central bank's target rate for overnight loans between commercial banks remains at a 43-year-low, three-quarters of a point greater than the equivalent U.S. federal funds rate of 1.25 percent.





FX Market Summary -


Japan's currency strengthened against the dollar in Asia for a second day this week as Japan's Cabinet Office almost doubled its economic growth estimate for the fiscal year to March to 3.5 percent. The yen also gained against currencies including the euro, British pound and Swiss franc as the Nikkei 225 Stock Average rebounded from a six-week low reached yesterday, led by exporters after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said a recent slowdown in U.S. consumer spending ``should prove short-lived.'' Against the dollar, the yen rose as high as to 108.38 before trading at 108.56 at 12.17 p.m. in Tokyo from 108.69 late yesterday in New York. It also gained to 133.65 per euro from 134.01. The Nikkei 225 rose as much as 1.4 percent.

New Zealand's dollar fell after the Federal Reserve signaled the U.S. economic slowdown is temporary, eroding the gap between U.S. and New Zealand two-year bond yields to the narrowest in almost a month. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan yesterday said in testimony to the Senate Banking Committee that a decline in U.S. consumer spending ``should prove short-lived.'' The New Zealand currency bought 65.20 U.S. cents at 12:08 p.m. in Wellington compared with 65.56 cents in late Asian trading yesterday. All 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg data fell against the U.S. dollar. New Zealand's official cash rate of 5.75 percent is 4.5 percentage points more than the Fed's key overnight lending rate target. That difference has helped push the nation's currency up 4.3 percent against the U.S. dollar in the past month.

The Canadian dollar fell 0.5 percent to 76.13 U.S. cents in 4:22 p.m. Toronto trading from 76.49 yesterday, the biggest drop in five weeks, after the Bank of Canada left its benchmark interest rate at 2 percent. The decision fueled expectations Canada's yield advantage on debt securities relative to the U.S. will shrink. At the same time, the Bank of Canada said it expects the economy to reach full capacity -- the point at which the pace of expansion sparks inflation -- sooner. It forecast a return to capacity by ``mid-2005,'' compared with an April prediction that the economy would be ``near'' capacity by the end of the third quarter next year. At 5 p.m. in Toronto, the currency fell 0.5 percent to 76.13 U.S. cents from 76.48 U.S. cents late Monday. One U.S. dollar buys C$1.3136. It's the biggest drop since June 14, based on closing prices.

The dollar rebounded in currency trading on Tuesday in the wake of Greenspan's testimony. The greenback traded up 0.9% vs. the euro and gained more than 0.4% against both the Japanese yen and Canadian dollar.




Forex Technicals:


- EUR/USD - the currency fell further in the wake of Greenspan's testimony -- support at 1.2350 gave way and the currency has been to as low as 1.2306, and may extend losses further towards 1.2275 - 1.2250 area. The short-term view was whacked out of kilter, but the longer-term positive view remains positive on balance. Support should firm up soon, and the uptrend renews its quest for 1.2500 or higher further out. Firmer resistance await near 1.2700. And we still believe that the uptrend will follow-through to 1.2900 further out.


- GBP/USD - the downwards correction extended further as a consequence of Greenspan's statements, and we might see the currency pair fall further to 1.8470 - 1.8450 before support shows up. The short-term view needed some patchwork, but the positive longer-term view stays -- the currency should recover soon, but perhaps from slightly lower levels. The currency still has fundamentals going for it, as expectation of further UK rate hikes will likely underpin the currency forward even further in the days to come. The uptrend has the 1.8775 top still as immediate focus, but the 1.9100 level remains as the main target within the next few weeks.


- USD/JPY - the currency pair found resistance at 108.85 area once again. But the reprieve to the U.S. dollar is temporary and will likely be brief -- the downtrend should resume soon, with the 107.60 baseline as next target.


- USD/CHF - the currency has been to as high as 1.2470 and may extend gains to 1.2500 - 1.2520 later in the day. But the recovery should soon fail, and the downtrend resumes thereafter. The currency pair should follow through lower once more towards the 1.2210 minor base. We still expect to see further declines to 1.2150 major support level and then through 1.2000 much further out.


- USD/CAD -- the currency pair continues to consolidate -- the greenback is making little headway vs the loonie. It has been to as high as 1,3170, but it looks like the upside momentum is slowing down. The downtrend should continue at somepoint, with 1.3000 -1.2950 as next target. But much further out, focus now at 1.2700.


- AUD/USD - the currency may fall further, probably to .7225 - .7210 but does not necessitate a change in view -- the rally should continue from those lower levels, accelerate through the .7350 top, and should then make it to the minor resistance at .7370 area. Further out, the uptrend should focus at .7500 objectives.


- NZD/USD - the currency fell further but may extend losses to .6480 later in the day. However, the longer-term scenario remains positive. The uptrend should eventually resume then go on to challenge the .6620 top sometime soon. The currency should then continue to trade higher towards .6750, then to the .7050 new focal point further out.


- EUR/JPY - the cross got hammered further and rests at 133.60 baseline. But the small consolidation may be followed by further declines to 133.00 - 132.80 area in the next few days. Nonetheless, we still expect the cross to go further north, and may rise to challenge the 136.00 top once again. The longer-term scenario takes on a large sideways consolidation requiring a sell-off from 138.00 - 139.00 potential resistance.


- EUR/CHF - the uptrend has been to as high as 1.5350, but may pullback somewhat towards 1.5315 - 1.5310. The uptrend follows through thereafter, and the next rally should propel the cross through 1.5350 to 1.5430 further out. Any rally above 1.5450 suggests that the long bear market is over.


- EUR/GBP - the cross may not find support at .6655 area, and may fall again towards the .6630 trough. A recovery should emanate from there -- the uptrend soon accelerates, with .6700 as immediate focus, and has .6820 as prime upside focus.

FX Market Summary -


The yen was little changed in Asia today after a report showed Japan's trade surplus narrowed in June as exports slowed from the previous month and economic expansion at home sustained demand for imported goods. A smaller surplus may lead to decreased demand from exporters to convert foreign currency earnings into the yen. The trade surplus narrowed 27 percent as exports fell 1.9 percent from May and imports rose 6 percent, the ministry said. Against the dollar, the yen traded at 109.82 at 9 a.m. in Tokyo from 109.80 late yesterday in New York. It also was at 134.64 per euro from 134.60.

The Australian dollar fell the most in seven weeks on expectations the nation's interest-rate advantage over the U.S. will narrow more quickly than some expected. The gap between the two nation's interest rates contracted as U.S. Treasury notes fell a third day yesterday, pushing their yields up, after comments by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan fueled speculation the central bank will raise rates at each of its four remaining meetings this year. A quarter percentage point increase each time would bring the target rate for overnight loans among banks to 2.25 percent, compared with the Reserve Bank of Australia's 5.25 percent overnight cash rate target. The Australian dollar fell to 71.41 U.S. cents at 9:08 a.m. in Sydney from 72.35 cents yesterday. The currency slid as much as 1.2 percent Wednesday, the biggest drop since June 2.


Forex Technicals:


- EUR/USD - the currency fell much further than expected, hitting a low in New York overnight at 1.2215 versus expected low of 1.2250. The recovery since then may lay the foundation for a new recovery, probably to a minimum of 1.2330. But the bad news is that a full-scale rally is not in the cards unless the recovery takes out 1.2340. The sell-off has done more damage than expected, but the longer-term positive view remains positive on balance -- unless the decline extends further and go below 1.2200, which may lead to further declines to 1.1950. If support firms up soon by rising above 1.2330, then the uptrend renews its quest for 1.2500 or higher further out. Firmer resistance await near 1.2700. And we still believe that the uptrend will follow-through to 1.2900 further out. A caveat is probably due at this point. Indications point to a recovery, but that is tempered by the fact that the sell-off has gone lower than ideal, and that opens a risk window that is hard to qualify -- at least until the currency speaks for itself by rising above 1.2330 -- or falling below 1.2200.


- GBP/USD - the downwards correction fell to as low as 1.8325, much lower than the modest 1.8450 downside target. The recovery since the trough may rally further to just below 1.8500. However, it takes a rally above 1.8500 to kick-start a new uptrend. On balance, the positive longer-term view stays unless of course the currency fall below 1.8300, which may lead to further downmove to 1.8000. Nonetheless, the uptrend remains in contention, the currency still has fundamentals going for it, as expectation of further UK rate hikes will likely underpin the currency forward even further in the days to come. The recovery should start soon -- a rally to 1.8775 top still the immediate focus, but the 1.9100 level remains as the main target within the next few weeks.


- USD/JPY - the currency has been to as high as 110.31, corrects back, but may find support near 109.50 later today. The rally may extend one more time, probably towards 111.00. But we still see this as a bear market rally nevertheless, in which case, the reprieve to the U.S. dollar is temporary and will likely be brief The downtrend should resume soon, with the 107.60 baseline as next target.


- USD/CHF - the currency did extend gains to 1.2580, much higher than our modest 1.2520 upside target. But the upmove is probably corrective -- the
recovery should soon fail, and the downtrend resumes thereafter. The currency pair should follow through lower once more towards the 1.2210 minor base. We still expect to see further declines to 1.2150 major support level and then through 1.2000 much further out.


- USD/CAD -- the currency pair continues to retrace higher and has reached 1.3270 -- higher than 1.3220 expected top. Nonetheless, upside momentum slows down soon and the downtrend should continue at some point, with 1.3000 -1.2950 as next target. But much further out, focus now at 1.2700.


- AUD/USD - the currency has been to as low as .7100, a lot lower than our modest .7210 expectations. Nonetheless, it does not necessitate a change in the positive medium-term view -- a rally should soon bounce back to .7180. But we need to see a break above .7200 to fell secure about the medium-term scenario. If this is indeed the case,then expect a rally higher from those lower levels, accelerate through the .7350 top, and should then make it to the minor resistance at .7370 area. Further out, focus shift to .7500.


- NZD/USD - the currency fell further and has been to .6360 -- expect a rally back to ,6430. Unless of course the currency falls below .6360, which opens up the scenario of further declines to .6150. The longer-term scenario remains positive, nonetheless. The uptrend should resume soon, and eventually go on to challenge the .6620 top. The currency should then continue to trade higher towards .6750, then to the .7050 focal point further out.


- EUR/JPY - the cross has gone higher than expected, disproving the need for a final downmove to 133.00. The cross is now expected to go further north, and may rise to challenge the 136.00 top once again. The longer-term scenario takes on a large sideways consolidation requiring a sell-off from 138.00 - 139.00 potential resistance.


- EUR/CHF - the uptrend did pullback to 1.5320, and has been higher since then. The uptrend follows through thereafter, and the next rally should propel the cross through 1.5350 to 1.5430 further out. Any rally above 1.5450 suggests that the long bear market is over.


- EUR/GBP - the cross did find support at .6650, contrary to expectations, but remains mired in a sideways consolidation. The recovery should continue from here -- the uptrend soon accelerates, with .6700 as immediate focus, and has .6820 as prime upside focus.






============================================

22 Jul 2004 10:40 GMT


Bearish S African Rand Climate Developing?
JOHANNESBURG (Dow Jones)--The recent strength of the rand could be about to unwind in the coming sessions, says ABN Amro. ZAR-negative commentary from Finance Minister Manuel and more bullish USD sentiment could serve to shake out ZAR longs. ABN has entered a long USD/ZAR position through 1-mo call spread with strikes at 6.00 and 6.29 (spot reference 5.96. Trading at 6.0480. (AES)