Over the past 3days crude oil prices have come off the boil. Experts say that there is a least $10 to $15 in the price for risk. As the middle east BEGINS to ease prices will fall sharply. How far and how fast will depend on the unobstructed flow of oil.

Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- European energy stocks rose, paced by Repsol YPF SA and Total SA after Morgan Stanley advised investors to buy the shares as they don't reflect higher oil prices or earnings prospects.


``There's 20 to 25 percent earnings growth to be seen this year'' in the oil industry, said Bruno Catoire, a fund manager at Cholet-Dupont Gestion in Paris, which manages the equivalent of $1.5 billion including shares of Total. Oil prices have soared yet ``there hasn't been a repercussion of the same proportion for oil shares.''

``While oil is over $40 a barrel, our stocks are pricing in only $24 a barrel,'' a Morgan Stanley team led by Irene Himona said. The analysts said 2005 earnings estimates would rise and relative valuations for the industry would drop at current oil prices, and forecast prices will remain high.


My favotite is Total but I've also got quite a few Shell.

Crude Oil May Extend Declines Next Week, Survey Finds (Update3)
Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil's five-day plunge since failing to reach $50 a barrel has convinced more traders and analysts that the price will continue to fall, according to a Bloomberg News survey.


http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=aBgOOJhDDZ_4&refer=news_index