any body got rich with cairns

IMO non OPEC countries are producing all they can in response to the high prices - there may be a little more to come from new production (less the usual declines) but essentially they are maxed out. Russia is constrianed by pipeline capacity - IMO at least a year to eliminate that bottleneck. And of course Iraq has a problem with its exports. IMO I see $50 on the near horizon per barrel,
IMO we are at these levels now, and with the winter coming on in the northern hemisphere, I would expect oil to move into the $50-$60 range until spring, unless there is a severe winter.
As for Cairn IMO the share price will move above 20 in September - but who knows with any certainty, it could be 30,40 or more with a severe winter price surge.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,2769-1236672,00.html
Scottish Agenda: Robert Ballantyne: Forget the share price, look for Gammells strategy
ROBERT BALLANTYNE, BUSINESS EDITOR SCOTLAND



BILL GAMMELL, Cairn Energys chief executive, is facing the kind of challenge most oilmen would sell their Texas ranch for. In just over a week, Scotlands Klondike king will announce interims for a year that has included no fewer than four oil strikes onshore in Rajasthan in India.
As a result of those finds, Cairns shares have risen in steady steps from 4 to within a whisker of 15 today. Such a performance virtually guarantees that the Edinburgh-based company will join the blue-chip FTSE 100 index at its reshuffle on the same day.



But the results will be virtually ignored. The market awaits an independent report on reserves in the main Mangala field, and Gammells view of prospects for the three finds. After Shells debacle over reserves, the Mangala report by Dallas-based consultants DeGolyer & MacNaughton should conclude that Cairn has found proven reserves of 1.8 billion barrels or so, a figure big enough and independent enough to support most of the value built into the share price.

But Gammells description of the potential of the other three discoveries, at least one of which is outside Cairns vast exploration area, is what will affect the expectations which are powering the shares.

Much is anticipated in this statement, and many may be disappointed. Some have suggested that taking profits is no bad thing, and investors large and small have top-sliced and done just that. Cairn will want to take some of the steam out of an excitable market.

But beyond the independent report and Gammells drilling update, look for his views on where Cairn will be into next year. More than 100m was recently raised for what? To maximise drilling, and begin putting in infrastructure for what is proving to be a massive field.

Listen for indications on where he will lead the company. Gammell wants Cairn to remain an exploration company, but such huge discoveries need a production strategy. So what gives more value to shareholders selling off the prospects now, or drilling and drilling, developing production and adding value? Cairn has promised to produce a development plan for the Indian government. Once the field is evaluated, Gammell has already suggested one answer would be to float the production arm as an Indian business on the Bombay stock exchange, creating value for Edinburgh and Bombay alike.

Gammells heart is in exploration, whether drilling in Texas, India or Nepal. But the pressure is on in Edinburgh. No doubt the phones have been ringing with offers, and the more is known about the discoveries, the more strident will the siren voices become.

Callers should remember one thing Gammell and his board are no fools. Nobody, but nobody, is going to get Cairn or its assets on the cheap.

I have been holding CNE shares for sometime, quietly following the very intelligent comment on this BB. Whilst not wanting to ramp the share price, I am taking a long term view..for the following reasons.

The world has reached a cross over point, using more oil than we produce (this period of volatile oil prices is a turning point, look back in a few years and see that this is true) both China and India are the powerhouse of the future, GDP's of 8%+, massive demand for oil and other petro-carbon products. Large oil companies have smaller reserves in % terms than at any time in the last 30 years, political/terrorism problems of massive proportions. IMO we will see $50 to $60 pb short term and $70 pb in the next 5 years, which once you strip out the breakeven price at CNE pb of oil, throw in the very aggresive drilling programme, excellent management and success rate, and improving technology for exploration, my conclusion is 45 - 60 share price inside 5 years. Please do not think this a ramp, I am taking a long term view, short term may see some downwards movement, do not follow the market like sheep, research your stock and sector, remember oil would have to climb to over $105 pb to exceed the 1973-75 price in real terms, and the world will have to adapt to higher prices as supplies dwindle. Check out the CIA website for research, very interesting.

Be 20 quid before christmas irrespective of oil price.

Huge basin of oil for the Indian economy to draw on.

All imo.