Is it time for the shareholders of CWD to finally realise the state of the uK housing market/ As a potenmtial (house) buyer I have seen massive discounts, particularly further down south, and the northern areas that may still be keeing the prices up will eventually follow. Property is slow to move and this is not getting any better so can only have a detrimental effect on the the profits of estate agents, who are on a small profit margin as it is. Not to say the financial gearing after all the boom time buys.

Only one way and that is IMHO downwards

Up another 5.7% today (maybe a lot of stop losses being triggered).

Saw this on the other side which perhaps explains a lot!

http://www.estateagencynews.co.uk/columnists/goodman_articles/mgood1204.html

And up another 4% this morning!
I think a lot of property bears have been using this as a short as it appeared to be an obvious target with it's terrible short term fundamentals!

As you say, terrible short term fundamentals. Is this a bear squeeze exercise or is there any real reason for the sp rise ??.

I think this is the underlying reason ;

.....Harry Hill, Countrywides managing director, seems untroubled amid media doom and gloom.

He told Estate Agency News: US investors now account for 65 per cent of our stock, with South Eastern Asset Management accounting for 20 per cent alone.

They are not looking to next year, or even 2006 but to 2007. They see opportunities in the surveying and conveyancing business, once Sellers Packs are introduced. We account for 25 per cent of surveying capacity in the UK.

Mr Hill also expects shareholder gains from Rightmove where Countrywide holds 30 per cent. Its been an open secret for some time that a flotation is on the cards, but Mr Hill now expects it will be on the NASDAQ in New York rather than London, as this US market rates technology stocks more highly.

We will look at an Initial Public Offering for Rightmove in 2005, probably on NASDAQ, he said.

We think this market will value on a higher multiple of revenue than the UK stock market. Long term, Rightmove is worth more than Countrywide.

That was November!

'The FTSE 250 mid-cap index also continued its run, hitting a new all-time high of 7,358.4, up 37.5 yesterday. It was led by Countrywide, the estate agents, whose own shares were also at a record level, up 19p to 353p. A transatlantic rift has opened up in attitudes to this stock, and, indeed, to the UK housing market. While London-based doomsters are predicting a crash that will shatter Countrywide's profits, US hedge funds have been bidding the shares higher. What appears to have started happening this week is that the UK funds that have been short-selling Countrywide shares have been forced to capitulate, buying back the stock and pushing Countrywide even higher, to the amusement and the financial benefit of their US rivals'.

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/analysis_and_features/story.jsp?story=609202

Brianboro,
glad I closed, heart rate recovering, and closely watching level 2 for a reversal, a number of sales going through but the order book is still predominantly for buys. Thanks for the info re hedge funds. I was however reading in money week (can't recall the exact source) that the US property bubble is at the burst point.
Fortunately yesterdays gains on my shares out did the short on CWD so I did make a profit, my other shorts are in profit - not too much damage - off to plan recovery tactics

Minx

The higher this goes the better. I covered at 337 on Tuesday morning. I only wish now I had reversed. Seeing some strength at that time I had no idea this upward run would have such legs.

IMHO and with hindsight, the Barclays investment must have spooked some of the bears. What you have been watching was short-covering not buying.

We may have seen the high already today. Barclays can make poor investment decisions like anyone else. I am waiting for the next signal to sell.

Is it better to wait for the prelims on 3 March? What about the break down through the 200 e.m.a.? or just pre-empt the results and likely p/w and get on with it on the first red candle? hmmmmmmm.

I used to have a BArclays fund that dropped in value, this buy was also on the 4th (or before) and was previously placed on this thread. They could just as easily have sold by now but won't tell anyone for a bit. Interesting that GS have dropped out of the share. Will Barclays follow suit? the sp loves to hang around the 360

hmmm a painful one this, maybe I am just thick - who knows. Does anyone know why Deutschebank and Barclays are propping up the share with increased holdings. Is the US housing market the supprot for this ?

Prelims today, and see the stock has dropped a touch, but is that just after the sudden rise. The level 2 order books is to the buys ?

Can someone tell me what date are the full results published.

Minx

See that Deutsche Bank have reduced their stake now. No sign of any results yet but loads of bad news for the housing market - that is if you look at the national statistics / land registry who state a 25% seasonal drop in completions and a 5000 average drop in price as compared to the same period last year, and do not take too much notice of the so called increase in asking prices stated by the estate agents. Also the fear from the interested parties of a 0.25% rise in interest rates only shows how vunerable the whole lot is.

Chestertons went 'tits up' yesterday and closed 35 London offices - losses mainly in commercial property but I would have expected sentiment to push this down.

News today is only what was expected, more bad news to come I am sure. EK rates the share as only worth 1, the rise in activity is propbably due to inexperienced estate agents pushing up asking prices to get anyone they can on their books,- doesn't meant hey can sell the properties, it also doesn't account for the ones that have dropped out the market as the prices are unachievable. I do not understand why so many buys at this price, especially after todays results and future outlook - maybe the British love of property ??

Hovering around the 330 support line, with a view of the business outlook and the fact they had to raise money via a placing suggests they are in trouble and it may fall lower. Next support is 273 (which looking at the near term outlook for the housing market where they still cannot close deals seems too high - no good asking for loads of lolly if no-one will pay it) There has been a long drop now and a reaction at 330 could be possible but in the long term still further to fall, imho. If there are any holders wishing for a silver lined cloud I would sell out. I have been through 2 property booms in 20 years and would opt to sell up and wait for an improvement in the house sale / property market.

Short 335. Target 320. Stop 340. R/R 3:1 Looks like its rolling over. DYOR

shorted at just over 370, closed around the 329. Managed to get losses back and well in profit. Short again looking for a further drop, aim at 270 ish medium term but with all these supports around I am keeping a close watch on Stops

Closed the short this morning after the drop, couldn't resist taking the money. Look for a short term rise but still believe a long term fall as house values plummet and transactions will be minimal. I have a relation who has just been given a mortgage at 5.5 times income - can only spell disaster. Negative equity here we come.

Stop tested but still short. If the rolling over helps make a completed h&s pattern since Dec 04 then I see the downside target nearer 240p

Woof woof :-)

Still in here, waiting for another plummet in the sp. IC posted a lovely article to sell, the stock has already dropped about 1 but a lot further to go. Now the Blair entourage are still in we will not have long to wait for interest rate rises and / or tax rises. Despite Halifax putting out a statement saying how positive the housing market is and that prices have steadied out ??? well they would say that wouldn't they, repeating the same drivvle since last summer.