Here's what KBC had to say about them.

http://www.kbcpeelhunt.com/pdfs/Oil04Mar05.pdf

Venture is by a margin the cheapest of the North Sea focused E&P
companies in terms of its forward cash flow multiple. With key new
gas field development seeming to be on track, the production base
will get not only an anticipated strong addition from March but will
also derive improved asset diversity. The company has so far
significantly under-delivered in financial terms and improved market
confidence and rising profitability could make this a strong
performer in 2005.
While Venture has generally managed its primary North Sea
production and development business competently, and field
performance, with the exception of Sycamore, has been up to
expectations, the financial performance has been undermined by
events. However, delivery of the key new field developments seems
to be on track and the company should more than double production
capacity to over 45,000 barrels of oil equivalent by the end of 2005
and should achieve on average at least 30,000 boe/d in the year.
The misfortunes continued on Sycamore, with an injector well
apparently not communicating with the intended reservoir section.
This caused the company to reduce 2005 production guidance by
about 1,500 b/d to 31.0-33.0 kboe/d.
The development programme under way continues through 2006
giving a further year or two of growth in the production profile from
within the existing reserve inventory. The company therefore has
time to seek further development opportunities either within its
existing licences or by acquiring or licensing new assets.
The stock is trading close to our Core NAV estimate but is on a lower
prospective multiple of earnings (2005 PE of 7) and cash flow (P:CF
of 2.3) than any other E&P stock. The appointment of a new FD
relieves CEO Mike Wagstaff of his multiple responsibilities, which
should improve confidence in delivery.
With 50% of estimated production in 2005-2008 in the form of natural
gas, Venture offers direct exposure to the UK gas price. Moreover,
the reliability issues that have dogged the company have been in its
oil rather than gas operations.

brianboru

u are not alone on this one, I also own these

consesus forecast for 05 is 40p eps
rising for 06 to 108 eps

numis says 46p for 05 rising to 142p for 06

This would put company on pe of less than 3
Venture are aiming for 60,00 boepd plenty of developments this year =
news flow also hedging policy will have less of a drag on earnings
could be an exciting ride
best of luck

On target for 2005/6 and looking good!!!

dikytree.

updated eps profit forecasts

2005 consensus 43.40

2006 consensus 93.00

bottom of range 65.67 top of range 99.20. 109.00 138.60

with the recent purchase of more assests pushing the companies production further into the future, plenty more to go for

statement copied from the Scotsman

Chief executive Mike Wagstaff said current output was at 40,000 barrels a day, but he hoped to add 12,000- 36,000 to that by the end of the year.

He said: "We have six wells coming on stream later in 2005, all expected to pump 2,000-6,000 barrels."

o1lman

http://miranda.hemscott.com/servlet/HsPublic?context=ir.access.jsp&ir_client_id=4360&ir_option=FORECASTS&nav=financial_info&d=1

Earnings forecasts.

Brian, o1lman,

Someone just pointed this stock out to me on the Financebb, and I have to say it looks VERY undrvalued, to say the least!

The plus points are (IMHO) the current (and certainly ongoing) high price of UK gas, the increasing levels of (presumably) unhedged production, and the prospect of significantly higher (unhedged) production by year end if the 6 prospects come to fruition as expected.

The negative point is clearly the hedge, and the fact they are selling at such a cheap price when the international price is far higher.

Do either of you know off the top of your head what the current hedged production is for this year please?

And is all additional production free of the hedge, ie are they selling their new production at full UK prices?

If your'e not sure, I'm happy to contact the company for clarification.

this looks like it's not on the radar screens...yet!!!

worth a punt i reckon, plenty of upside coming next year!!!

i can't see gas prices coming down anywhere soon, can you???

Hi Brianboru
been watching this one since 6th june
up 26%to date, Bump today included.
Has winner written all over it.
Good luck, i will be on board shortly market willing.
regards
HUSTLER

Another positive day.

I would like to find out how much of the current production is hedged, and whether any that comes online now is hedge free.

I guess i'm going to have to ring and find out if nobody here knows.

Ring who you like Andy.
The market is saying Buy,
no logic required.
I missed the first buy signal like a fool
and already behind the game.
All the best
HUSTLER

Hi Andy,
Afraid I've not much idea of their current hedging position, which no doubt changes regularly as one hedge unwinds and another is bought.
Hope you do manage to get some info from them.

bb

Somewhere I have read that hedging is reducing rapidly to around 10/15% of production - not sure what the source was. According to Citywire article this week, hedging last year lowered the average price achieved pb to $24.88 (equivalent 14.88) with avg 16832 boepd. I guess they needed price certainty to secure funds for capex etc. With hedging substantially removed, and average Q2 production about double last year, revenues should quadruple, or more.

Citywire also mentioned average life cost per barrel, and suggested that these will fall due to economies of scale - last year, they were 6.59 pb. It does not take much imagination to see that the margin on production over last year is growing substantially! Any wonder why the stock is up from 2 to 4? Then I compare to other oil explorers (who IMO carry greater risk of abortive wells), and some expect relatively modest production growth next year (see Burren for instance). I do not have a crystal ball, but VPC p/e on today's production looks too low, the forward p/e looks far too low, and then the share price should factor in some premium for growth in future years. Yesterday, the target 55-60k boepd by 2007 was reaffirmed. I failed to see much problem with yesterday's announcement on minor drilling delays. If the oil and gas prices hold up (or indeed strengthen going into the winter), then the outlook on earnings is encouraging.

Numis's latest guess at forward earnings on 27.7.05 provides estimated eps of 56.9p for year to 12/05, rising to 169.7p next year. At 400p, thats a p/e of 7 falling to less than 3.


Edit - It's now 432 and may have broken out upwards again.

this is looking promising, may buy a few...

http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_946773.html

Venture Production (VPC.LN) +5.0% at 456.5p, extending last week's gains amid continuing high oil prices but no stock-specific news, notes analyst. But says "oil price is higher than most expected even 12-18 months ago. There has got to be an increasing chance of consolidation." Believes those companies with production and reserves are most likely to become targets. Cites Venture, Tullow (TLW.DB), Cairn (CNE.LN) as candidates. "It will only take one bid at high valuations for the whole sector to see a rerating." (PBA)


Volume high and increasing in the last month!

Venture Production: BUY Highly competent operational management and improved asset diversity has led to a re-rating of this stock which is still continuing. Equal exposure to UK gas prices as well as oil.

http://www.kbcpeelhunt.com/pdfs/mmeetings/NEOilGas9Aug05.pdf

This one's a goodun !!!
Couldn't resist a few today at 481p after the Peel Hunt tome.
Not so sure about Oilexco - a bit more risky.

Quiet thread ,,exciting share... I got in to these a couple of days ago when they dropped, they have had a good write up in the TMI recently, are you lot still holding ???

I'm still in there (indeed picked up a few more at 454p last week).
It is a goodun and, assuming the oil price doesn't collapse, they will be making exceptional profits for the next few years.

Burren is also attractive after the big correction last week.

Cheers supermono , don't see the oil price going south at the moment, your right Burren is looking worth a punt .