Have you a Share with an interesting Trend or TA?
Looking around the various threads and especially Max up your Sip ISA and PEPs thread on Traders Room, I think it may be of interest to see what others have on their watch list or in their portfolios. Ie. Pondering over buying or selling.

Intimating reasons for buying or holding. I was thinking of addressing the thread to longer term trading ie anything over 3mins up to 5years.

If there is interest it may be reasonable to cut and paste some to the postings to a thread under the epic name for further follow up or discussion.

I will kick off with one of my failures, which I should have cut my losses on. But to a certain degree is still a free ride as I sold at the peak to buy again later. (If there is such a thing, and if there is why is it sometimes so bloody painful.)

Amstrad.







Bought originally because of :-

1) Promising rolling yield about 4.8%
2) Dividend cover of about 3
3) Increasing turnover 3years
4) Increasing eps over last 3years
5) I thought the results were good but played down by Sugar as is his way.
6) Interesting Nick knacks with suggestion for boxes of increasing turnover
7) SP Trend line form June /03 until Sept /05 good. Trend line at 103% per annum
8) There has been announcements of further deals for his boxes


But since then had a retracement to about 150 with a kick back up to 193 in February 05 followed by drop to 131 at 10/6/05. Since then there seems to me to be price break out on goodish volume on the 10th /6/05,

I think the trend is reversing but appreciate opinions. I still have reasonable tranche of these and intend holding until annual report 23/9/05

Against it is question whether it shows signs of further retracement, although the SP to-day was up.

Comments welcome on this share and others.

Apparently there will be some new to-morrow or within a few days.

http://www.bioprogress.com/html/news/news.html

Hello Fred, I've also taken a recent small punt in Amstrad. But want to highlight a different company for your TA thread:

DAG - Digital Animation Group. Small Glasgow company specialising in animated characters for mobile phones, and avatars (no, I hadn't heard of them before either). Small market cap (14m), small number of shares in issue (23m), and the chart looks to have bottomed at low 60's after peaking around 120 back in March. Rumours of deal news. Massive spread but there's real potential here - although 'not for widows and orphans' ;o)

Interesting. I have look.

HAd a look.

Poor for going long at moment.

150 an 5 day ROC are down.
Volumes are Vsmall at moment
A/C is down.

Trix is neutral or down but doe show signs of Reversal
Price below Moving average.


GOod sign it seems to have broken down trend but not necessarily so and is still within down channel.

I had a another peep.










I think I would wait a little longer before buying until there is a more deffinite pivot. Has support at about 48.

W/See

IMHO IMHO and god I can be wrong as i am frequently told.



8-)

Hi Fred,

Can you recommend some software for stockpicking via TA? Do you use anything like that? Or ae you like me in that you trawl through your favourites patiently waiting for signals?

Chiva20


I think the easier way is to define type of shares you wish to view, which sector or capitalisation etc and what you are expecting from a trend. This gives you a group of shares to look at.

I use Sharescope Gold with daily updates. Part of the package is a Data Mining facility. With that you can select groups of shares with the criteria you wish and then apply their charting facilities which includes a large number of indicators. I have use it for 5 or more years and find once you have got into it, it is very practical. It also has reasonable Fundamental's page giving PeGs, yields, Turnover etc.

Also has portfolio pages for multiple porfolios. Recalculated after down loads.

Also give daily market news and directors' dealings and shows major holdings.
Cost under 20 a months.

I am very impressed with it, and other than one confrontation on telephone with some Silly B. have generally found them helpful. The programme is being updated on regularly.

For other information and Daily Charts I use Comdirect (Daily Charts) and News pages, though Moneyam's have improved, but Comdirect is flexible and allows editing and porfolios graphs etc. Also use Barclays for information and Ivestors Chronicle's archives. The beauty of Moneyam and ICV is that they post the magazine to you and you can cut and paste etc. out of their archives.

Sharescope also supplies some CDs on basic data mining, and TA (David Jones) I thought them pricey at about 40 each but interesting and wish I had played with them 10 years ago. But I think Pring's book on BAsic TA which has a CD also is perhaps a little better. Individual taste.

Also has a CD on Basic Fundamentals, (Peter Webb of "Shares Magazine") but I haven't read it or seen it yet.

One reason for starting thread was and attempt to get a little chat about TA and how others interpret them.

If you want further information go to http://www.sharescope.co.uk or contact me, by E-mail or this page.

By the way I had squelched you a short while. Can't remember why though.

AMT
OBV going up over the long term and also divergence from the graph

appears to be on 12ema but still has a downtrend to break. See if it tests the 127 area then go from there

DAG
choppy and not liquid ie could you sell this in a hurry?

CCI showing a touch of divergence but momentum is weak



PS I never use the word `might` wrt shares. I only say what I see on the graphs. This applies to all my own share transactions

lower bottoms and bear tail on candle on my own clear charts

Fred that's very helpful thanks very much. I was on the point of opting for sharescope but wanted to hear that from someone more experienced.

I've no idea why you squelched me? Very funny, the only person I thought I'd been squelched by, then un-squelched (repeat daily) is Sequestor and that's mainly because I like many others, attempt to police his need to mingle abuse into some otherwise constructive posts.

Didn't think I'd crossed swords with you before, very odd!

Good luck and thanks again.

for emailpat

TPK

watch the obv and also draw some trend lines on the graph if you are able. I would print and then draw if you haven`t got a charting facility. There is a definite uptrend but The obv would make me cautious. On my chart the weekly candlestick shows support at 1660. So perhaps sit tight for a bit and see what happens

Fred
Good thread, thanks.
Been a buyer of these from 208p and upwards...

Very helpful thread.Thankyou.
I am going to buy RTN and GFRD because their five year charts are very pleasing on the eye and the moving averages look nice and the shares are not expensive.Anyone thinks that I should'nt do this please WARN me now!!!
Ethel

Paste the charts and you should get a few views.

Ethel

with regard to GFRD, they appear to have missed out on the recent sector rises, mainly due to an overhang from Yeoman selling their stake. This appears to be cleared now with the recent increase in volume.

Also tipped up in shares mag:

Housebuilder Galliford Try (GFRD) is expected to announce solid trading at an update to introduce the new chief executive Greg Fitzgerald in early July. Fitzgerald told Shares that the downturn in the housing market has not unduly hit trading.
However, the average sales price for its residential properties has fallen to 200,000 from 228,000, in line with the market. This has been offset by its broad exposure to construction and niche housing in the private, commercial and public markets.
He is also waiting for news from the government that Galliford Try has won 200 million to spend on pilot development schemes for housing associations (HA). Out of an original 175 entrants it has made the shortlist of 20 and has a good chance of winning the deal thanks to its strong presence in social housing. A decision is expected in July and could 'open the floodgates' to more HA contracts.
Shares in the stock have barely moved this month and are trading at just 57.5p, or just 8 times earnings.
Shares says: Good news should be announced at the imminent trading update, providing a boost for the stock.

i bought back in a couple of days ago

GFRD 5 yr chart:

Gfrd 1 yr chart with indicators

Don't know how to...!!Maybe someone else can do it for me,(typical woman)!!
I think that this thread could be a good one for filling us small caps investors in on charting etc.By "etc" I mean,the psychological and physical aspects of investing in the stock market.
We are gambling,whether we like to use that term or not.
We can become addicted to the investors' rooms and the adrenalin rush of it all,when everything is going well.
The bubble effect of this March made a lot of people much dosh,and proved that if your timing is right you can make a fortune in a short time.
But there are some of us who sincerely believe in a company and want it to do well.It is a pleasure to read the results from a really good company that talks about "us" when referring to the shareholders.These companies are rare.
I want to support British innovation and skill,as well,so I am more an investor than a trader,but the line is thin!!
I hope that this thread lasts.
Ethel

Thanks Fundy I was being a little churlish. Looking at the charts I think i would leave buying for a couple of days. For me the the indicators are a little ambivalent at the moment but the long term trend is good and certainly suggests a reasonable buy.
I have look at RTN and here are some charts which certainly look promising are price rate of change is good, haven't looked at fundamentals as I got bogged down in definitions of ROCE, PER and PE and cash flow etc.



Volumes look good a supporting price rise, Trix a MACD seem supportive. Rate of price change is good.

I will try to look at some fundamentals mane. GOOD LUCK but have a look at posting 4 for pasting charts. Even girls can do this. I bet you would be annoyed if I asked you to pour the TeA.




All in MHO.

Fundy I saw GFRD figure this morning had a think. Probably wrong , House prices sales have dropped approx 15% I have a "feeling" and observed that houses don't seem to be moving. The same rented accommodation around the university has been offered for months, less students will be going away to Universities because of grants reductions etc. there will be less need for rented accommodation and therefore more houses on the market an therefore further price drops. 5-15% possibly. How will this effect GFRD profits.
I am thinking or have been told by my wife that we need a different house, she might have said houses. I am getting a little deaf nowadays.

Fred

the drop in average house price at GFRD will be more related to the mix - to the amount of housing association properties they complete vs residential properties more than the state of the market. For a few years, GFRD have been trying to build up their presence in the HA market so the average selling price of these is likely to be 25%-40% below market price for the same property. GFRD are trying to position themselves to take advantage of the fact that the govt has got to provide more (subsidised) affordable housing in the current climate. As for the students situation, this is at odds with the govt view that they want 50% of students to go to university (compared to the current 35%ish)

most house price stats at the moment tend to point to prices being pretty flat at the moment overall, though their are discrepancies within different regions and at the different ends of the market (for example the +1m market is very bullish currently!)

to me, at this set of results of more importance will be to see the continued improvement in the margin performance of the general construction division as the house building arm will continue to produce good profits, mainly on the basis that most of the land was purchased at least 4 yrs ago and most of even longer ago. the key number with regard to the housing division will be how they have managed to replace the land bank that they have utilised and at what cost.

The point about students going to university I accept,but the university they go tgo is more likely to be to the local university where they can live at home because the old form of maintenance grant has be lost and top up fees will make many think again. Like many of my friends we went to local Universities, because of our parents income causing us to have smaller grants and to reduce our costs we settle for living at home. This irritated me so much that I told my four daughters they could go to any University of their choosin ouside a forty mile radius of our home. I really do think it will have effect. But we will see.