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Traders Thread - Monday 12th September (TRAD)     

Greystone - 11 Sep 2005 14:45

Digger - 12 Sep 2005 06:44 - 8 of 11

LONDON (AFX) - The following is a compilation of UK smaller company results due out in the 2 weeks to Sept 23.

MONDAY SEPT 12
Action by Bovis Homes Group PLC to increase outlets, control construction costs and promote high-margin landholdings should enhance its strong (27 pct) operating margin over the next 18 months, according to Simon Brown of Williams de Broe.
The decline in 2005's pretax profit - the analyst looks for 53.5 mln stg against 67.2 mln at the half-way mark to June - must be viewed in the context of the market and the group's stronger land bank, achieved via planning success on three major strategic land sites with significant (35 pct-plus) operating margins, Brown said.
A key element of future growth is the group's ability to expand operations geographically, without lowering current returns, by using the strategic land held in new regions.
Meanwhile, Brown's interim profit estimate would throw up EPS of 31.8 pence against 40.1, from which a 25 pct hike in the payout to 8.0 pence is envisaged.

A key feature of Enterprise PLC's H1 results will be the cost of integrating recent acquisitions, corporate investment and the inherent seasonality caused by the timing of supplier rebates - around 1 mln stg in the closing half of last year.
Nevertheless, Andrew Nussey of Altium expects solid progress in the key Utilities and Public Sector Maintenance divisions with each division showing year-on-year margin improvement and double-digit top line growth.
In addition, the analyst looks for more clarity on the potential working capital arising from a major customer looking to change terms of payment and the move to ensure risks are minimised for shareholders on rebid.
Nussey is forecasting pretax profits of 12.4 mln stg, up from 10.5 mln, for the six months to June 2005, resulting in EPS of 10.8 pence against 9.7. The payout is expected to rise to 3.2 pence from 2.9.

Lower interim profits are anticipated at Forth Ports PLC, and Alistair Gunn of Arbuthnot Securities reckons there is at least a 50/50 possibility that the company will warn it will struggle to meet consensus profit expectations for H2 and the full year - currently 53.4 mln stg pretax.
The analyst's caution relates to the property division, with the Port division enjoying a solid outlook.
Moreover, his caution does not relate to the state of underlying demand for land from developers and housebuilders or the pricing environment (both of which he believes to be unchanged). Rather, it reflects the lumpiness of profits and timing of sales.
At the half-way stage to June 2005, Gunn shoots for pretax profits of 11.2 mln stg, marginally down on the comparative period's 12.6 mln.
This reflects lower sales activity in H1 (which normally accounts for just 5 pct of annual profits) for the property division and increased costs from establishing a property master plan for about 268 acres of the Edinburgh waterfront (now zoned for commercial use) and the marketing of all the group's waterfront locations under the Edinburgh Forthside brand.
Good underlying progress is anticipated from the Ports division, one again led by Tilbury. Gunn expects EBITA to be up by 9.9 pct, with Multilink Terminals (the group's first venture outside the UK) chipping in for the first time. Improved trading is seen at TCS within JV's and associates.
Meantime, a 14.6 pence dividend, up from 13.3, would be covered by EPS of 17.1 pence against 18.8.

Whatman PLC warned in July that first-half sales and profits will be lower than it anticipated.
However, the laboratory equipment supplier said improvement in the second half and higher than expected savings from last year's acquisition of Germany's Schleicher & Schuell, on lower than anticipated costs, meant full year targets would be met.
The company blamed the sales shortfall in the first half on "lack of leadership" following the November departure of chief executive Howard Kelly, who stepped down after 17 months in job, and two regional sales managers.
Elizabeth Klein of Baird Equities has pencilled in pretax profits of 8.7 mln stg for the six months to June 2005, modestly up from 8.4 mln. This would produce EPS of 4.69 pence, up from 4.54, from which a 1.92 pence payout is anticipated. The company paid 1.75 at the half-way mark last year.

TUESDAY SEPT 13
A strong first half to June 2005 is expected at Cornwell Management Consultants PLC. Arbuthnot Securities' Robert Sanders expects revenues of 10 mln stg, up 12 pct and, thanks to better margins, pretax profits of 1.0 mln stg against 700,000 stg.
A maiden interim dividend of 1.0 pence is thought likely, payable from EPS of 4.2 pence.
The main drivers of profits in the closing half will be how successful Cornwell is in converting ITTs to contracts within the public sector areas and how quickly Quantum Plus is integrated and the better margins available within the private sector impact the group.
The second half will also see some benefits from the upfront investment costs taken in the first half.

A sharp downturn in profitability is expected at French Connection Group PLC, with Paul Smiddy of Baird Equities forecasting 5.8 mln stg pretax against 15.4 mln for the six months to July 2005.
The most successful look in the high street for the last few months has been the latest iteration of the boho look. This is at the core of French Connection's heritage - cheesecloth shirts sourced from India.
However, FC missed out entirely on 2005's version of this look. Arguably, the senior management had become too obsessed with FCUK t-shirts and denim, Smiddy suggested.
Relatively premium price positioning has looked increasingly out of kilter in a deflationary High Street. The effects of management insularity combined with a poor clothing environment produced the horrors of the 1 July trading statement - H1 UK/Europe retail LFL was then forecast to be down 11 pct.
Much rests on the Autumn/Winter ranges to restore faith, said the analyst. Wholesale orders are, however, down 10 pct for the season.
A same-again 1.2 pence interim dividend is expected.

Office2office PLC's interim results should reflect further steady growth within the business, with more smaller contract wins balancing the larger variety. They should also provide a feel for progress on local authority contracts, where there are growing opportunities, according to Nick Spoliar of Baird Equities.
A key trend is the government purchasing efficiency process (Gershon), which is largely helpful for the company, said the analyst.
Spoliar predicts that pretax profits for the six months ended June 2005 will go up to 5.2 mln stg from 4.9 mln, producing EPS of 10.2 pence against 9.4. A 3.5 pence (nil) payout is anticipated.

UK housing demand was weak in the six months to June 2005 against the comparable period in 2004. Redrow PLC is showing as good a profit trend as any, however, and has a growing regional spread, Simon Brown of Williams de Broe pointed out.
In performance terms, the group has a very impressive 28 pct return on capital employed, and assured in June that sales, at 4,372 units with an average price of 172,000 stg, would not disappoint the market, despite a marginally lower operating margin.
Balance sheet and cash flow strengths allow the group flexibility in land buying and investment in working capital. A land-buying phase may limit the decline in gearing to 32 pct for end June 2005, said the analyst. Next year, gearing could well fall to below 30 pct, given the increased land bank and success in planning on some larger sites, he added.
Meanwhile, Brown sets his sights on year to June 2005 pretax profits of 138 mln stg - the market range is from 132 mln to 142 mln - against 124 mln previously. His prediction would lift EPS to 60.4 pence from 54.8, from which a 10.8 pence dividend total, up from 9.0, is anticipated.

Interim earnings from precision instrumentation and controls company Spectris PLC should show very strong progress over the disappointing first half in each of the last two years.
In 2003, the SARS epidemic delayed the order flow in the Far East, while the Bruel & Kjaer companies were let down by a supplier in Q2 2004.
Since these two issues were clawed back in the second halves of 2003 and 2004, the outlook for the year will give a more helpful indication of underlying progress.
Arbuthnot Securities analyst Michael Blogg expects high single-digit sales growth in 2005, amplified by operational and financial gearing to give almost 12 pct EPS growth for the year.
For the six months ended June 2005, Blogg looks for pretax profits of 24.1 mln stg, up from 14.2 mln, for EPS of 14.5 pence against 8.9. The interim payout is expected to rise to 4.50 pence from 4.25.

John Wood Group PLC's July trading update reported that Engineering and Production Facilities had had a good half at the operating level. All three units of the Well Support business also saw good growth in H1 05.
As Wood had previously indicated, Gas Turbine Services is likely to continue to struggle in 2005. The US power market, which has been the main cause of the division's problems, was described as "difficult but stable" in the update.
Richard Griffith of Williams de Broe recently stepped up his 2005 and 2006 estimates by 8 pct and 6 pct respectively.
For the half-year to June, meanwhile, the analyst predicts net income of 36.0 mln usd against 36.6 mln. On the dividend front, he look for a 1.3 cents payout, up 8 pct, or 4.6 pct in sterling terms.

WEDNESDAY SEPT 14
Close watchers of Invu Inc, the document management software group, are expecting to see more of the stellar top line growth that the company has delivered since float, with Arbuthnot's year to Jan 2006 pretax forecast of 1.6 mln stg more than 50 pct ahead of the same period last year.
Invu has also continued to invest heavily in both the technology and the sales process which is only likely to impact in terms of return in the second half. Therefore, Arbuthnot's Robert Sanders expects breakeven at the halfway mark to end-July 2005, compared with a 300,000 stg pretax loss.
Despite having yet another demanding sales forecast for the second half, Sanders feels certain that the steep ramp-up in profitability will come through. Not only will this be a function of the operational gearing to the traditional seasonal bias of software companies to the second half, and especially the fourth quarter, but also the improved reseller channel and launch of the .NET platform.

Good progress is anticipated at SIG PLC. The insulation, roofing and commercial interiors products supplier said in June that continued like for like sales growth together with the added impact of recent acquisitions will enable the group to report a particularly strong trading performance, ahead of expectations, for the first half of 2005.
Activity levels remain solid in the UK, with repairs, maintenance and improvement (RMI) activity taking up any slack in the new-build market, said Simon Brown of Williams de Broe.
SIG offset cost pressures in most geographic centres in H1 05 through better pricing - which has been widely accepted - and there are signs of demand recovery in France, the US (small) and Poland.
Despite RMI recovery, concerns about weak German demand in H1 05 seem well founded, cautioned Brown. However, with a greater exposure to industrial, rather than construction, activity - on a 70/30 split - the ability to advance sales volumes may offset pricing concerns.
The analyst predicts pretax profits of 36.5 mln stg for the six months to end-June 2005 - bottom of a market range that extends to 41.0 mln, but up from the previous period's 30.6 mln.
Brown's forecast would lift EPS to 21.0 pence from 17.7, from which an 11 pct hike in the payout to 5.0 pence is anticipated.

THURSDAY SEPT 15
Brandon Hire PLC's interims results will reflect steady trading through most of the period, coupled with an improved order book towards the end of the half.
The numbers will not have matched the buoyant first half of 2004, however, when revenue growth was 15 pct, as against low single-digit growth for most of H1 05.
Concerns on Brandon have focused on the exposure of the tool hire sector to construction and in particular housing, said Nick Spoliar of Baird Equities.
However, the analyst pointed out that Brandon's markets are extremely disparate, ranging from contractors to councils and local tradesmen engaged in maintenance and refurbishment, markets which remain relatively robust.
Spoliar, meanwhile, targets pretax profits of 1.8 mln stg, down from 2.2 mln, for the six months ended June 2005. He expects the dividend to nudge up to 1.6 pence from 1.5, payable from EPS of 3.8 pence against 5.0.

Steady progress is anticipated at CODASciSys PLC in the half-year. Revenues at CODA should benefit from a first-time contribution from the acquired French business, which should complement modest organic growth.
Ian Spence of Baird Equities is expecting revenues from SciSys to be flat year-on-year, but he pointed out that this represents a respectable sequential increase. Revenues from other areas of the business (namely the remainder of the commercial business and Business Collaborator) should be up slightly year-on-year.
Margins at both SciSys and CODA are expected to have been flat during the period.
Pretax profits of 4.2 mln stg against 3.7 mln are forecast by Spence for the half-year ended June 2005, leading to EPS of 12.7 pence against 11.6. A 1.4 pence dividend, up from 1.3, is expected.

A mixed AGM statement from Huntleigh Technology PLC prompted Elizabeth Klein of Baird Equities to adopt a more conservative outlook for H2 with revised estimates cautious on possible tenders, which still have yet to come through.
The AGM highlighted positive performance in the US, South Africa, Australia and some parts of Europe. In fact, the US now has 20 of its 25 depots either breaking even or profitable, and this is slightly ahead of Klein's expectations.
UK NHS sales, however, were poor, without any of the usual tenders in Q1. This was due to the Trusts' lack of funds and therefore their focus on spending their remaining monies on non-discretionary purchases such as orthopaedic items and equipment for operations, and not on capital equipment.
For the six months ended June 2005, Klein looks for pretax profits of 13.7 mln stg, marginally down from 14.5 mln. She expects the payout to nudge up to 3.34 pence from 3.30, payable from EPS of 10.7 pence against 11.3.

Premier Oil PLC watchers will be focusing on the H2 05 exploration programme instead of the interim results. In a recent drilling update, the company said it is scheduled to drill ten wells before the year end.
On the profits front, Williams de Broe's Richard Griffith predicts net income of 30 mln usd for the six months ended June 2005, up from 12.8 mln. This would throw up EPS of 19.0 pence against 8.3.

FRIDAY SEPT 16
Biocompatibles International PLC's recent AGM statement indicated that the full-year sales guidance remained unchanged, suggesting H1 revenues of 1.5 mln stg-2 mln.
Elizabeth Klein of Baird Equities anticipates interim turnover at the lower end of this range, driven by only modest growth in Bead Block sales.
Revenues from PC Licensing, Dexamet stent royalties and feasibility studies are expected to demonstrate minimal growth year-on-year.
The bulk of Biocompatibles' FY 05 costs are associated with the PRECISION clinical trials and will be incurred during H1. Pre-marketing evaluation of the DC Bead will also increase operating expenses over this period, said the analyst. As such, full-year losses will be weighted towards H1.
Klein anticipates a positive update on the PRECISION trials. She also expects an update on CellMed, which she believes will be the next product taken into clinical development during 2006. This product appears to have the greatest commercial potential, given its application as a second-generation drug-eluting platform, the analyst said.
Klein forecasts pretax losses of 3.0 mln stg for the six months ended June 2005, up from a 2.3 mln deficit, for LPS of 7.5 pence against 6.1.

Isotron PLC, whose principal business is contract sterilisation of
medical products, confirmed in July it expects year to June 2005 results to be within the current range of market expectations (10 mln stg to 10.5 mln pretax).
Baird Equities analyst Ian Jermin predicts pretax profits of 10.3 mln stg, up from 8.8 mln, for EPS of 35.2 pence against 30.0. He looks for a 10.6 pence dividend total, up from 9.6.

Digger - 12 Sep 2005 07:08 - 9 of 11

LONDON (AFX) - Leading shares are expected to start the week firmer, building on a solid performance on Wall Street on Friday, and as oil prices paused for breath overnight, dealers said.
According to spread bettors CMC, the FTSE 100 will open 10 points higher at around 5369, having finished on Friday at 5,359.3.

MARKETS
Tokyo: Nikkei midday 12,826.60
Hang Seng midday 15,220.38 up 54.61

TODAY'S PRESS
* The Financial Services Authority is scrutinising the presentation of results under international accounting standards as analysts warn that some companies risk sowing confusion in financial markets - The FT
* John Thornton, former co-president of Goldman Sachs, is among the candidates being considered to chair American International Group, the world's largest insurance company - The FT
* CENTRICA is said to be considering selling its telecommunications arm OneTelafter receiving interest from several potential buyers - The Express
* A three-year Serious Fraud Office investigation could lead to charges against six British drug companies for allegedly defrauding the NHS by rigging the prices of commonly used drugs - The Times
* Business and industry groups are calling for urgent government action to help them to cope with a potentially crippling rise in energy costs. - The Times
* The FA Premier League is preparing to repel a new complaint that the European Commission is expected to make about the way it sells its television rights - The Times
* Fears that Hurricane Katrina could trigger the collapse of a number of insurance companies have prompted the FSA to investigate the disaster's effect on UK-registered firms - The Telegraph
* Insiders at WM MORRISON believe that chairman Sir Ken Morrison and chief executive Bob Stott are unlikely to survive a damaging strike at the supermarket group - The Telegraph
* Pub group MITCHELLS & BUTLERS, owner of the Harvester and All Bar One chains, has joined up with PUNCH TAVERNS to bid for privately owned rival Spirit Group - The Telegraph
* Broadcasters who win the rights to televise live Premier League football could be forced to sell some games to rivals under proposals drawn up by media regulator Ofcom - The Guardian
* RANK is facing demands from large investors to make sweeping changes to its business after a year of protracted disposal talks and widespread under-performance across the leisure conglomerate - The Guardian

PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on Japanese election (A week is a long time in politics, but perhaps four years is not enough), Risk appetite (Study the distribution of real gross domestic product growth of the world's 20 richest economies over the last 50 years and the world appears a fairly benign place), TELECOM ITALIA (valuation is in line with the sector on most cash flow metrics. It has a superior asset base. Its complex capital structure prevents its participation in the sector's looming acquisition binge. Maybe it's time for the shares to go back to work)
Independent
Small Talk: QXL RICARDO (eBay's success makes QXL look overvalued), PERSONAL SCREENING (Word has it Personal Screening will soon be making its way from the lightly regulated Ofex market to AIM), UNITED CLEARING (Although the group's shares have soared by 70 pct since its float last year, there seems to be plenty more upside in the stock), ADAMIND (All looks to be in place to make the group a big winner from the fast evolving multimedia messaging sector)
Times
SMALLER STOCK TO WATCH: ILX GROUP (expected to announce today that it has signed a "significant contract" with Rolls Royce for an undisclosed sum)

Greystone - 12 Sep 2005 17:20 - 11 of 11

End of day market wrap
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