Thought I'd start a new thread as this is going to be a major talking point this year...have not made up my mind yet...(unlike bucksfizz)....but thinking of voting for an exit as Europe is not doing Britain any good at all it seems....

Been out being walked by my dogs.

I don't believe that there are tariffs as such. Financial services are covered by regulations and law. Trading under the WTO rules would mean the loss of passporting rights which gives banks and financial service providers the right to trade within the EU with minimal additional supervision. The UK would have third country status. These are allowed to offer some services provided their regulations are equivalent to those in the EU. Moody's have stated that UK banks don't need passporting rights but I'm sure certain service providers will be effected. No doubt the lawyers are busy working on ways around, since the EU is only part of London's business and the EU relies heavily upon London for access to capital.

What % is the UK's contribution to Germany's world trade surplus? How is Germany's population age problem? Is a Merc the only car or are others available? On food - we waste a lot, higher prices may encourage us to reduce the amount. How much of the exports can substitute for the imports? Of the remaining essential foodstuff - rather than discretionary - can the UK charge a lower or zero tariff?

Cheers,
KidA

Cheers iturama , my understanding of EU tariffs is that the only real losers in the UK if we go to wto rules will be a few dozen sheep farmers in mid Wales.

As Rees Mogg pointed out on QT last night food , clothes and footwear prices are more likely to fall after we leave the EU as we will be able to scrap the higher tariffs imposed by the EU and trade freely with the rest of the world.

Exchange rate has fallen by more than the tariff for manufactured goods such as cars so that shouldn't be a problem either for our exporters but a big problem for German and French exporters.

Also re QT , think it was that clown Alex Salmond who said that he was speaking to a line manager on production at Nissan and he stated they received x thousand parts per day from suppliers and if they received them 1 minute late it would cause a problem and 6 minutes late and it would be a catastrophe .... what a load of bollox.

The parts are delivered into a Nissan run wharehouse the day before so if the line manager gets them late he's only got his own fecking staff to blame. If you believe Salmon then a 1 minute delay getting from say Germany to Sunderland would cause a problem. The guy is a fecking idiot.

Hey little englanders!.. R4 Any Questions now.

Dil,

I'm not sure what WT tarrifs, if any, there'd be on financial services post-Brexit, but that's not why I referred to the high GDP contribution of financial service.

The concern has got to be that the UK lose of that income to Frankfurt. For instance, London is where euro clearing is carried out, and that is big business (nearly $1tn a day in values of notional contracts).

EU clearing in Frankfurt and rest of world in London , not going to happen hils. Not saying we won't lose bits and bobs but only if it makes commercial sense.

Dil,

Are there fairies at the bottom of your garden?

No Fred , there were but they all left to run the Labour Party.

The business of euro clearing isn't that simple, Dil.

If the European Parliament choose to pass a law post-Brexit saying that all euro demoninated derivatives contracts must be cleared within the EU, then it's difficult to say what might happen. I suppose the UK could always take the matter to the ECJ, but if they don't agree to abide by ECJ laws post-Brexit, then good luck with that one. :o)

Shhhhhhhhh about that one.

Have a read of Will Hutton's well written thoughtful article :

"Leftie? Yes, and proud to be among those upholding Enlightenment values".

Will Hutton

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/leftie-yes-and-proud-to-be-upholding-enlightenment-values

It points to many of the apprehensions which some of those who wish to remain in Europe as partners have.

Doc,

If last year's referendum had been 'informed', then everybody would've already known about the importance of and potential problems with euro clearing. Instead of selling the plus points of EU membership, the remain camp fought a negative campaign based upon Project Fear.

The ECB know its worth, and they've already tried unsuccessfully to take euro clearing to Frankfurt, and I suspect they're already looking to try again. Probably as early as April 2019!

The last time, Gideon was able to fight it off because the UK were within the EU. Next time, I'm not so sure the UK will be so lucky. Unless, of course, something gets enshrined in law within the Brexit trade deal that every Brexiter is so cavalier about.

Victory for UK over eurozone clearing houses

How The EU Could Grab London's Euro Clearing Ops

Thought we wanted to rejig the economy?

The City could lose 10,000 jobs on day of Brexit, says Bank of England
Deputy governor Sam Woods admits forecasts of 75,000 job losses in long term are ‘plausible’

The Bank of England has warned that 10,000 jobs could leave the City on “day one” after the UK leaves the EU.

Sam Woods, a deputy governor of the Bank, also admitted that forecasts of 75,000 job losses over the long-term were “plausible” at an appearance before peers on the Lords EU financial affairs sub-committee on Wednesday.

Woods runs the regulatory arm of the Bank and based his estimate of 10,000 jobs on responses he received from 400 banks and financial firms required to provide him with their contingency plans for a hard Brexit.

He has been reviewing the plans since July and said some were being put in place – with banks reserving school places and hiring office space – but that this process would get under way “in earnest” in the first quarter of 2018.

The estimate of 75,000 job losses was made by consultancy Oliver Wyman, and based on the assumption that the UK would be left to rely on World Trade Organisation rules with no transition period after March 2019, when the UK leaves the EU.

Under this scenario, £10bn of tax revenue might also be lost, it said. The 75,000 estimate includes the knock-on effect of fewer City jobs to other parts of the economy.

Woods said this was not a Bank of England estimate, but described it as being within a plausible range of job losses that would happen in the long term if the UK left the EU without a trade deal.

He said the actual number was a “moving feast” and that the initial impact of about 10,000 roles amounted to 2% of the total employed in bank and insurance jobs, or less than 1% of financial services jobs.

Woods has previously called on the government to agree a transition deal by Christmas to give firms more certainty about Brexit and reduce risks to the financial system that may arise as companies adjust their business models to continue to be able to access the remaining 27 EU countries.

He told peers this was also important because the Bank of England had to make arrangements for EU banks and financial services firms that needed to be authorised to allow them to continue operating in the UK after Brexit.

“We will need to get going,” Woods said, warning that the changes being made would increase complexity for firms.

He was speaking the day after Andrew Bailey, the chief executive of the Financial Conduct Authority, told MPs that banks could start to make irreversible moves to transfer staff from London to rival cities in the EU unless there was clarity over Brexit by the end of the year.

Goldman Sachs has begun to implement contingency plans by taking the top eight floors of a 37-storey block under construction in Frankfurt, even though it is building a new European headquarters in London.

The US investment bank employs 6,000 staff in London and its chief executive Lloyd Blankfein tweeted this week that the decision on how many staff to keep in London was “so much outside our control”.

Political uncertainty was also mentioned by Jes Staley, chief executive of Barclays, at an event in Westminster on Wednesday. “Like all of us, we are in sway to the desires and wishes of the political bodies and I have no idea how that will go,” Staley said, according to Reuters. Barclays has said it will expand its Dublin operations to cope with Brexit.

The Brexit vote has cost each household more than £600 a year, says NIESR.

Well we know how many previous forecasts turned out to be badly wrong. I suppose it depends on whether the forecasters were 'Remain' or 'Leave' voters, all eager to promote their views.

To put that into some sort of perspective as Remembrance Sunday approaches, almost 20,000 young British men were killed on the Somme on the first day of the so called Battle of Albert. They thought they were fighting for freedom only for successive governments, led by equally stupid leaders as those during WW1, to give away willingly far more than those young men could ever have imagined.

I would prefer peace to plundering.

Mind it is OK when the price of war is paid with other peoples' lives.

I wasn't aware that the right to trade freely with your nearest neighbours, and the right to clean air and beaches was a 'willing give away', iturama.

Or maybe it's the thought of all that smelly cheese and garlic that you're objecting to?

:o)

Fancy lunch? :o)

Hilary,

Are you trying to flirt or tease me with that image?