You guys still debating, try this system out.......................
If gold is a low risk investment during the Kondratieff winter, which shares, after bullion itself, should we be buying - gold producers or exploration companies? Let's examine the 'pros' and 'cons' of each of them.
Gold Producing Companies:
Pros:
-Investment grade. Large Market Caps-appropriate for investment funds.
-Cash flow via production.
-Excellent liquidity.
-Share prices generally rise faster than the price of gold itself.
Cons:
-Depleting their resources through production. Difficulty finding sufficient reserves to maintain production at current levels; i.e., Newmont 7.2 million ounces p.a.
-Hierarchal management-slow to make decisions.
-Exploration subject to committee review and budgetary constraints.
-Limited exploration since 1998.
-Only a small number of companies to choose from.
Junior Exploration Companies:
Pros:
-Responsible for 70% of discoveries.
-Growing their gold.
-Quick response management.
-Innovative geologists; prepared to see the unconventional.
-The onset of the Kondratieff winter suggests the largest bull market in gold in the entire cycle. In that environment share prices rise faster than those of their conservative counterparts.
-A major discovery positively impacts the share prices of most exploration companies.
-An ability to release regular news in progress.
-Management usually owns a large stake in the company and has a vested interest in achieving positive results on the behalf of all shareholders.
Cons:
-Management under suspicion-not trusted.
-Viewed as very high risk investments.
-Investors don't understand news releases, because they are usually not geologists-can't follow a discovery in progress.
-Poor liquidity; small market caps-not suitable for most investment funds.
-Difficulty in raising money; major dilution at low share prices.
Evaluating Juniors:
The key is Management. The Long Wave approach, developed by my team at Canaccord is subjective but still useful.
Points System:
Resource -
50 points- Defined Resource
35 points- Discovery
15 points- Grass Roots.
Management - Max 50 points
Properties - Max 35 pts
Promotion - Max 15 pts
Blue Sky - Max 25 pts
Political Risk - Max 30 pts
Market Cap - Max 30 pts
Shares Outstanding - <5million - Max 10 points
I much prefer investing in juniors versus seniors in a gold bull market, because:
- There is significantly more upside price potential, following a discovery.
- Easy to be selective. There are plenty to choose from. Follow the management.
- Exciting to follow progress; discovery-resources-reserves.
- Management is usually dedicated to enhancing shareholder value. It wins, too.
So there you have it, I believe that gold at this point in the Kondratieff cycle is a low risk investment and good junior gold mining shares are arguably an even lower risk than their senior producing counterparts. Now go and buy some. However, you must remember to buy management.
For a detailed presentation of my interpretation of the Kondratieff Cycle visit my website www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca.
http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/
cheers GF.