
The major stock indexes continued their declines of last week, with all three major indexes, the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ, closing beneath their respective 200-day moving averages. The S&P also closed beneath the mid-channel of the parallel trend channel formed by the selloff from its March 5 high and beneath the 61.8% retracement of the rise from the May 12 low. We said Friday night that we wanted to press the bearish case coming into todays session and the markets decline accommodated our stance.
The same near-term bullish divergences we discussed in terms of breadth and ticks however, have not been resolved. Both NYSE and S&P 500 only breadth were slightly positive today, despite the down close in both the Dow and S&P. Likewise, NYSE ticks have so far failed to register a downside reading of greater than minus 1091, the kick-off reading to wave three down on July 1. And the daily charts of the Dow and S&P look like five wave declines from the late June highs. Finally, the high-beta indexes, such as the NASDAQ and its technology subcomponents, were stronger today on a relative and absolute basis, which suggests the decline from the late June highs may be in its latter stages. The combination of these near term technical factors suggests that a short term market low is fast approaching, which should mark the end of a five wave decline from the late June highs. This low should lead to an A-B-C rally to correct the selloff of the past three weeks.