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Coffee Heaven - A heavenly share for penny punters ? (COH)     

overgrowth - 06 Oct 2003 22:47

underground01_2.jpgA busy day in the Warsaw Underground ! Not just another coffee shop chain - this one is a brand leader and is only trading in Eastern/Central Europe (i.e. the countries recently admitted to the EU destined for substantial business growth). The company is creating new outlets at a fair old pace and take a look at their website - these are quality stores in high-profile locations like major airports, railway stations etc. Website: http://www.coffeeheaven.eu.com

APRIL 2006 TRADING UPDATE!!! Total Gross Revenues for 12 months to 31st March up 66% to £6.3M (2005: £3.8M) Lots more info. on new markets and stores click here to read the full details. Stores: 43 (up from 32) stores currently trading (Poland: 30 (up from 23), Czech Republic: 6 (Up from 2), Latvia: 7 with a further 5 units under construction including Bulgaria and sites secured in Romania (subject contract). Bulgaria & Romania are seeking to join the EU from January 2007. Sites located in key high street, shopping malls or Airport locations. Company growth target: increase number of units by at least 20 units to some 63 units by 31 March 2007. Aim being to achieve this level of growth within present Cash resources.Cash balances at 31 March 2006 were approximately £2.9M (2005: £0.7M). Debt was nil (2005: £ 2.5M): Nil Debt! Positive EBITDA: For the year ending 31 March 2006, Group EBITDA expected to be firmly positive after charging UK and new market development costs but before exceptional costs relating to the cancellation of bonds (previous Debt). Forecasts: Based on present trading conditions and current exchange rates we anticipate indicative sales of £9.3M for the year to 31 March 2007. This includes indicative sales of £0.4M from Bulgaria, which will be reported but not consolidated. From Richard Worthington (Chairman and Chief Executive): ‘The new financial year has started well. There is no doubt that the significant economic improvement in our markets is feeding through to consumer confidence and spending. The strength of the coffeeheaven brand ensures we are ideally positioned to benefit from our customers' increasing prosperity.’

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=COH&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=COH&Si

David10B - 24 May 2007 10:47 - 811 of 2037

I am here AdieH.

I still believe that if Mr Worthington had prior Knowledge of the EMPIK intention to dump their holding, and Mr Worthington still went ahead with the new issue, knowing, as any prudent CEO would have, the effects thereof on the COH SP, then that Sir is not quite cosher.

Furthermore, I am fully prepared to state my opinion in a court of law without reserve.

Have a really great day.

Ultimate Cynic - 24 May 2007 12:28 - 812 of 2037

David10B = knobhead!
UC.

AdieH - 24 May 2007 12:54 - 813 of 2037

Lol, I think there more useful UC well mine certainly is compared to David...

David10B - 24 May 2007 13:39 - 814 of 2037

In view of the unwarranted and really silly comments of some here.

In order to demonstrate my committment to my thoughts on the subject matter and in order to prevent a further deterioration of this BB, I have accordingly prepared a small information pack on the recent events surrounding the placing of shares by COH@ 41p.

This information has been forewarded to the DTI, "Vetting Section" email:-vetting.Section@dti.gsi.gov.uk

Correspondingly, I have no further comment to make, for the moment, which may or may not jeopardise any investigations the DTI may undertake.

If all is above board none will suffer unjustly.

Have a great day.

AdieH - 24 May 2007 14:03 - 815 of 2037

Ha Ha Ha, IanT I do hope you are reading these posts...

foale - 24 May 2007 14:13 - 816 of 2037

I see the "dog and pony show" continues...



"further deterioration" ..is that possible...lol

paulj - 24 May 2007 15:09 - 817 of 2037

Let's hope the DTi's hard-pressed "vetting section" deliberates over David's "information pack" for several years... before tossing it in the bin. Let's also hope that David proves to be a man of his word by honouring his vow of silence until the vets finally deliver a verdict.
Can't see it myself. Seems to like the sound of his own keystrokes too much...

AdieH - 25 May 2007 12:18 - 818 of 2037

Would suggest if you want a good thread to discuss COH then join iii, lots of interest of who has recently picked up EMPIK's stock and with the news of Lehmans interest (recent RNS) and the tie up with Starbucks...

David10B - 25 May 2007 13:07 - 819 of 2037

As stated AdieH, there really is nothing else to add.

I told you here last week that there were more shares disposed of than that of the EMPIK dumping.

I dont think for one moment Starbucks has them tucked away, or indeed intents to start mopping them up, as Mr Worthington has already stated that COH is now too expensive as a take over target-besides you seemingly can not, as history and proverbs would have us believe, make silk purses from sow's ears

Thank you for your consideration, however I feel that there is far to much unopposed ramping on iii.

Having read the COH thread there it is obviously far too full of ultraist shareholders steeped in fideist aficionadoism, for my taste.

For example not one person there has seriously questioned where the huge over hang of surplus shares may be laying---and what happeds to the current deflated SP of COH if suddenly these shares, about 15 million of them, (the little devils that they may be), start to dribble on to the market?

This could be disasterous for the SP of COH which is already in shell shock.

No Sir, thank you for your most kind offer, but I seriously do not think that my appearance on iii would be welcomed by the grossly over enthusiastic COH rampers, I mean posters there, and therefore my tenure of writing space there would most postively be of a limited nature.

I am quite content, as stated , to sit on the side lines and let the SP talk.

Have a really great day.

paulj - 25 May 2007 13:36 - 820 of 2037

If only you WOULD let the sp do the talking, David. Sadly, after saying you have "no further comment to make", you lasted all of a day before breaking your silence. With that sort of willpower you must be a tobacconist's dream.

David10B - 25 May 2007 14:04 - 821 of 2037

Sir I really dont know how you were brought up. However I was brought up to answer question put to me immeduately and respectfully.

Should AdieH find it expedient to ask no further questions then obviously the need of an answer would be rather superfluous, would it not?

It was indeed AdiH who brought COH onto the MRL thread.

Would be much better to read the posts and follow what is going on before passing a comment.

Whatever it is you choice: try to enjoy your day and dont let the frustrations of life get to you-

paulj - 25 May 2007 14:08 - 822 of 2037

You didn't even last an hour that time. So much for "letting the sp do the talking". It can't get a word in edgeways!

David10B - 25 May 2007 14:19 - 823 of 2037

Do you wish that I reply to you paulj?

paulj - 25 May 2007 14:22 - 824 of 2037

15 minutes.

proteus - 25 May 2007 14:28 - 825 of 2037

I wish for a reply on sales etc

AdieH - 25 May 2007 15:21 - 826 of 2037

You are banned on iii that is why I suggest others migrate there... Now SHUT up and let the SP do the talking, your a bloody hyprocrite...

David10B - 25 May 2007 18:29 - 827 of 2037

Banned?????

PLEASE YOU ARE NOW BEING AS SILLY AS YOU ARE RUDE!

IT APEPARS YOU JUST DONT LIKE ANYONE HAVING A VIEW THAT IS CONTRA TO YOURS.

HOWEVER AS A GREAT LADY FILM STAR SAID IN ONE OF THE GREATEST MOVIES EVER.

I do, I can and I will.

Have a really nice weekend.

paulj - 25 May 2007 19:55 - 828 of 2037

4hrs, 10mins. Afternoon nap, was it? Matron won't be happy that you're out of bed again, David.

AdieH - 25 May 2007 20:13 - 829 of 2037

Come on Waxman we know its you, you really should consult a Doctor about yr Alto Ego... Remember me from iii I was the one prepared to meet you at the AGM but you didn't/wouldn't turn up... If you feelings about RW are so strong I will ask for special permission for you to attend the next one as my guest.. Have an absolutely spiffing weekend dear chap... you do make me smile... xx

David10B - 25 May 2007 22:24 - 830 of 2037

Dear AdieH

I can really understand your frustrations, honestly, and I can understand how you are seeing your dreams of hitting the jackpot with COH whither, as does the SP.

CFE entering these markets also does not help you.

If you do not wish to me to post here on the COH tread, then why do you keep coming back with such outlandish, illfounded, provocative claims and statments which prompt a reply????

I am lost to you on that point, unless you, as I do, enjoy the entertaining banter.

However fior the moment, you sir are acting as if deluded from reality. I have no idea who or what Waxman is. Perhaps he was your bad boggyman childhood dream? However I can assure that I am not a reincarantion.

It appears that you and your cohorts are incable of holding a rational discussion without being insulting. I have no problem with that if that is your style, we must all try to live and let live, beside that, after a career in education my skin is quite thick I can assure you.

However, its all perfectly understandable when one considers that even the COH house brokers Numis have called it wrong and are most apologetic on the COH web site( kindly observe that no one is above market forces), copied and pasted, with full acknowldgement, below viz:

NUMIS
coffeeheaven

Attractive buying opportunity

coffeeheavens share price has fallen 10% in the last week. We believe this share price fall is unjustified as the fundamentals for our investment case remain as strong as ever.

Successful placing
Strong macroeconomic environment
New stores / new markets
Strong LFLs
Valuation
A glimpse of the future
Read more in the full report...

Well Sir I have read the report and for the benefit of Proteus who has asked my opinion on the future of COH earnings I respond thus forth:

Coffeheaven has currently 65 stores. In my opinion, given the leasehold costs and start up costs, each store should now be netting at a very minimum, a clear 1000 pounds per week. This is a undemanding profit target, and again in my opinion if each store could not make this small amount it would hardly be worth getting up and opening up for (I base my figures on a fast food franchise, that I am familiar with and currently considering a small participation in).

Therefore with 65 stores, each netting a 1000 pounds per week, we are looking at a proposed nett anual profit of 3,250,000.00 pounds

Before moving on to future projections, I have a simple straightforward question, WHERE IS THIS MONEY?

Forget about EBITDA that figure mean absolutely nothing, lets get down to the bottom line as if your expenses are eating your take then you have nothing, and that is what I contend COH to have.

I would conceed that COH apepars to have a strong LFL sales growth, but as said with no substantial bottom line COH is not working for its shareholders, but working to pay its runing costs.

Unless COH can come forward with positive NETT profit forecasts, (and why not as its seem to be good with all other forecasts) then they can open a million coffee bars as far I would be concerned, as they mean nothing without profits!

Numis has a target price of 66p and a longer reaching projection of 100p per share for 2011, Very very bravely put as at the same time they acknowledge that the branded coffee bar market is set to grow in Central and Eastern Europe.

That means the stiff competition will flow into the COH operating area to naturally follow the potential profits!

Capitalism Sir, does not, and will, not stand still.

Now to be a realist COH has not done that well in delivering profits when it was in an unchallenging market, and leader therein, I do not believe that COH can match, let alone beat any compentant competition.

However that is only my view as I see it. I think that CFE going down the franchise route, as it is, will fair much better and offer its shareholders a more positive progressive mangement style with ultimately a better ROC.

Again its only an opinion.

WHY NOT WAIT WATCH AND SEE?

The market is always right in the long run, and for the moment it is saying the SP of COH is too high, of course that may change in the long run and prove my thesis that the current SP is way too over valued and is seeking its true level, to be wrong

I believe the market is telling us that after 7 years trading COH now needs to be showing profits in millions each year.

Have a really nice long weekend, I am trusting for some good weather to get the new roof on.

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