obviously those who have had a good look and decided not to buy are almost certainly going to be pretty negative

imo, the patient will wait for at least another year or two before considering investing, albeit keeping the stock on a watchlist

meanwhile, even shore capital say, "we think that the recent sharp rise in the share price is occurring in anticipation” - ie already discounted for the immediate future

for those (almost) determined to buy, it is worth noting that sp has just crept through 200 dma and for better or worse is still al long way south of it's all-time high

Do you remember the heady days of RKH, Mr C? We all got in fairly close to the bottom on anticipation of them striking oil. Given that the oil is in a desolate location and would take many years to get to market, we nevertheless decided to ride the momentum. We pretty much ignored PE's, PEG's, EPS and all the other sensible ways of investing. Imo, SXX is in the same category at the moment.

there have been many such especially on AIM, where we have all been badly gulled and burned

at least the potash reserves are not several 000 metres under the sea, that may then have somewhat disreputable valuations put on them

Do I have to say it at reverse

you'ld have to be bonkers ..... not to buy when it started to turn up with volume from the long bottom low 18p

that's fine if that's what you want to do

certainly you come from a different investment angle from me, and you make no secret that you are generally in/out within a few days or occasionally weeks, dealing on very small margins

clearly it works for you, but i have neither the skill nor patience to devote my time to such
for me, i generally hold stocks, even when trading CFDs for a number of weeks or even months ....... why CFDs? ...... inter alia, there are no time constraints

"This man's not for turning"....(excuse the slight paraphrase)

There is currently a large buyer on the order book, there is an Iceberg ( meaning a large order and placing in 500.000K @ 26.25p every time that the "AT"s takes the total amount another is put in) till the total order is bought.

Currently there is 407K left from the last lot of 500K, earlier a 500Kx2 were taken in one go, it seems it started from early on the day and Institution is building an stake most likely.

Well I thought "C" is going to buy a few millions and would be able to sell my at 26.50p+ but this will not happen it seems so I sold mine at 26.252p, as the Iceberg was slow the last time, meaning not many left and the offer side went well offered with 4.5M

Yes the Indicators have move up to overbought, but could still carry on at this rate while the share price is rising

Also note SXX is no longer an AIM stock.

I would dispute the overbought - 80 RSI does it for me.

Cynic.
You certainly deserve the wooden spoon award for stirring it up! I like a man who sticks to his guns.

other reason's why I sold

Both Indicators RSI and Stochastic reaching overbought
but one very important MACD histogram bars are declining
as is the volume lately
Back on the chart last July/ August there is a resistance 26/28p

my view is only contrary or even provocative if you think a BB is only for ramping (a word i hate)

i'm sure many would decry say FEVR or BOO, both of which i happen to hold

while i confess i would certainly find it hard to justify buying the former at the current levels, that same argument could and indeed was put forward when FEVR was well below half its current price

Well well was I to checky/lucky to sell around the top for the moment being?

Has gone down as low as 24.875p, a few games being played, but order book has gone weak on the bid side after the buyer was filled

You can analyse a stock like this to kingdom come. However, the fact is that production is years away and the most significant risk is a (massive) cost overrun in creating the mine infrastructure. Whatever the company is touting as its expenditure from here to production is highly speculative. Think Channel Tunnel.

and no, blackdown is not my alter ego :-)

re - I would dispute the overbought - 80 RSI does it for me.

The RSI was over 80 for a few days, I would advise you to look at others charts

And I can confirm that Cynic is not my alter ego

big article on this on front page today's ST Biz section
headline makes it all sound wonderful but read properly

1) cash call for £1.5bn will be needed, which is about 1.2x of the current market value of the company at 25/26p

2) the mine isn't even scheduled to start production for another 4 years and full production will not be reached until a few years after that

3) polyhalite is not straightforward potash ....... A report by AMEC two years ago called into question the commercial merits of polyhalite, as the consultant claimed there was ‘no market’ for the fertiliser product, which is something of a new entrant and had not been sold in huge volumes


so i ask again, is this really the time to be piling new money into this stock?

MIDAS SHARE TIPS: Sirius Minerals digs deep to mine in the Yorkshire Moors - Joanne Hart - The Mail on Sunday - 30 April 2017

Sirius Minerals is more than just another stock market-listed company. It is an adventure – a blend of British pioneering spirit at its best, mixed with thoroughly modern technology and a large dose of Australian perseverance.

Sirius is developing a 200-square mile mining project in the middle of the Yorkshire Moors and just a few miles from Teesside.

The site is home to the largest and highest-grade polyhalite resource in the world. Polyhalite is a top quality, multi-nutrient fertiliser that appears to have significant advantages over most conventional alternatives.

Ambitious: Sirius Minerals raised £940m last year for the 200-square mile mine near Whitby

The scheme is the biggest mining project in the UK in decades and has been compared to mine sites developed during the Industrial Revolution, in terms of its ultimate scale, national economic contribution and regional social impact.

Run by Australian former banker Chris Fraser, the company has made huge strides since Midas last looked at it in 2012, when the shares were 25p.

First, the company has quantified how much polyhalite it will be able to mine from just a small part of the overall site – 2.66billion tons or around 10million tons annually for more than 260 years. Second, it has secured full planning permission, after agreeing to more than 90 conditions, ranging from road and rail upgrades to funding for tourism.

Third, it raised $1.2billion (£940million) last November to finance construction and development costs, from a mixture of new shares, a convertible bond and a royalty agreement with an Australian company.

A group of banks is already in place to provide more cash via a loan of up to $2.6billion, supported by the Government’s UK Guarantee Scheme, which backs big infrastructure projects. And last week, the group moved from AIM to the main market of the London Stock Exchange – an unusual step for a business that will not make any money until some time after 2021. Construction has started too, so the project is really under way.

Sirius’s efforts have been extensive but the shares – having risen to more than 50p last year – are now virtually unchanged from 2012 at 25¼p. The current price certainly reflects last year’s fundraising, which involved the issue of more than 1.8 billion new shares at 20p. But there are other factors that may deter investors.

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The project’s sheer size and complexity may not be to everyone’s taste. Six banks, including Lloyds and RBS, have been appointed to arrange the debt facility, but they will need to bring in contributions from other lenders. Assuming they succeed, billions of pounds will be poured into the site to move it to production and, in the meantime, the company will remain loss- making.

Construction incurs further risk. The polyhalite is a mile underground and almost the entire project is being built below the surface to ensure that the mine does not become a blot on the landscape. Fraser is extremely capable, but mines are notoriously accident-prone during the construction phase.

Then there is the polyhalite itself, which is rarely seen outside North Yorkshire. The mineral provides four essential ingredients for crops – potassium sulphur, magnesium and calcium. It also appears to reduce root disease, enhance the amount of nutrients absorbed and benefit the soil.

Fraser believes he can sell his product around the world, particularly in huge crop-producing countries, such as the US, Brazil and China. Discussions are under way and some customers have already said they will buy the company’s polyhalite in the future. But Fraser still has some persuading to do.

Sirius has been testing polyhalite on 26 crops ranging from corn to cabbage since 2013

Polyhalite is cheaper than most fertilisers but it is not widely used today, so the global farming industry will need to be convinced that it does the trick. To that end, Sirius has been conducting trials since 2013, testing polyhalite on 26 crops ranging from corn to cabbage in 14 countries. So far, the results are encouraging.

If all goes well, Sirius’s polyhalite project could prove extremely rewarding for local people, British exports and investors. The company is already funding regional apprenticeships and will probably create at least 1,000 jobs once the site is up and running.

Around 500 landowners, ranging from small, Yorkshire farmers to the Crown Estate own the land on the surface of the mine and will also receive royalties once production starts.

On a national basis, polyhalite could prove to be a valuable export commodity – a top-of-the-range British fertiliser sold all over the world.

And for shareholders, a successful project and global demand would translate into profits of hundreds of millions of pounds, a soaring share price and robust annual dividends.

Midas verdict: Sirius Minerals is not a share for the faint-hearted, nor for investors seeking income in the short term. But for those who are prepared to take a risk, Sirius provides an opportunity to be part of one of the most ambitious industrial projects to come out of the UK in decades. An adventurous, long-term buy.