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Dowgate Capital - Capitalising on the booming AIM market (DGT)     

overgrowth - 09 Feb 2005 20:52

Dowgate Capital (DGT) are sitting in the middle of a goldmine!

This company through their sole trading arm City Financial Associates are looking to take full advantage of the "booming" AIM market this year. Dowgate provide NOMAD (NOMinated ADvisor) services to AIM companies and also have full Corporate Broker status which means that they can fund placements on behalf of the companies they represent.

On first sight, the fact that Dowgate exist in the often veiled financial services sector makes you think twice about investing in company such as this because it would be impossible to understand what they were doing - however, think again!

DGT bring new companies to the AIM (Alternative Investment Market). For each new company "floated" on AIM, they take arrangement fees when acting as NOMAD. After the company is launched then for a nice steady earner DGT get another healthy chunk of cash every year for looking after them (note that all AIM companies must have a nominated adviser - thereby securing a ready source of recurring income).

Because DGT also act as a Corporate broker they can get a very healthy percentage for arranging placement of shares with insititutions before a new company floats. In addition, because placements come outside the sphere of yearly NOMAD work, they can also gain healthy percentages of placements which companies may need to make throughout the year when they need a quick injection of cash to speed growth.

Current NOMADships: 28 companies represented (gives recurring income of approx 480,000 per year)

Current on-going Brokerage agreements: 19 companies (income depends on placements)

For flotations, depending on the size of a company, fees charged will be anything from 50,000 to 100,000+ For placements (the real earner), DGT get anything from 3% to around 12% of the TOTAL AMOUNT RAISED - For example a new company raising 3M though a placement will earn DGT anything from 90,000 to 360,000 ! These figures are indicative as actual deals all differ due to circumstances and DGT sometimes take payment in shares - they still have a tasty chunk of Setstone shares and when this Russian exploration company comes back to AIM, predictions are that the share price will rocket. Note that the amount that this little company can earn in fees is huge and every new deal that comes through we know will contribute another healthy chunk into the bottom line. The good news with every new floatation means that it's another chunk of recurring revenue which could go on for years, with DGT having to do very little. New clients gained in 2005 are:

Mediazest (NOMAD & broker) Elite Strategies (NOMAD) Process Handling (NOMAD) Poland Investment Fund (NOMAD) Nanotech Energy (NOMAD & broker) Archimedia Ventures (NOMAD & broker) Red Leopard Holdings (NOMAD) Alba Mineral Resources (NOMAD & broker) Intandem Films (NOMAD & broker) Motive Television (NOMAD) IncaGold (NOMAD) Sportswinbet (NOMAD & Broker) Infoscreen Networks (NOMAD & Broker) Mark Kingsley (NOMAD & Broker) Croatia Ventures (NOMAD & Broker) Pantheon Leisure (NOMAD) Firenze Ventures (Ofex Advisor) FlightStore Group (NOMAD & Broker) Euro Capital Projects (NOMAD) Pearl Street Holdings (NOMAD) Worldwide Natural Resources (Ofex Advisor) Dovedale Ventures (Ofex Advisor) Other 2005 work completed:Neptune-Calculus VCT offer for subs of up to 12 million Advisory work for TGM on London Bus disposal for 20.4M Advisory work for Creightons on property disposal Advisory work for Hampton Trust on company restructuring Advisory work for Interbulk Investments on acquisition of Inbulk Advisory work for Fundamental-e Investments on two disposals Advisory work for Designer Vision re: Design Rights against Centurion Electronics

Click Here for fundamentals and profit projections.
Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=DGT&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=DGT&Si

stockdog - 17 Jun 2005 08:29 - 816 of 2787

All three WINS, KBC, SCAP now on both sides at 55/65 after 740,000 buys in 4 trades - as yo say no stock floating free anywhere, they will need to put the price up to attract any more out if they want to do any more business today. HOLD TIGHT - IMHO DYOR

sd

stockdog - 17 Jun 2005 09:06 - 817 of 2787

Here they go up to .6/.7 at 8.40.

1p by Xmas looks a little modest - could get there before end of June,. This is buying interest pre-interims. My guess is there will be a little taking of profits on results being published, so may not hold.

Still looking for 1.53p (raised a tad since spread has closed to only 15%) as a 12 month target which today one could say would be sailed through, but slow and steady is fine for me.

sd

overgrowth - 17 Jun 2005 09:52 - 818 of 2787

Wow - that chart is starting to look very healthy!

sd - 1.53p is a reasonable target for 6 months down the road and more than easily achievable.

Ideally we need the price to stablise at a level below 1p at this stage to avoid any spiking effects, though the MMs seem to be struggling to get stock at the moment - that's why the price is zooming up.

sidtrix - 17 Jun 2005 10:33 - 819 of 2787

Zoom Zoom Zoom...... tell them to hike it to 1p then :) might consider selling my millions then!

sidtrix - 17 Jun 2005 10:34 - 820 of 2787

if they are to encourage selling, why cap the sells at 200k... just did a dummy run!
Sell: .61

overgrowth - 17 Jun 2005 10:49 - 821 of 2787

sidtrix - if you force a cap on sellers, then you get lots more commission as anyone who is really desperate to sell will split large chunks into lots of smaller ones.

sidtrix - 17 Jun 2005 10:55 - 822 of 2787

Cheers OG... neone got L2 know whats happening?

overgrowth - 17 Jun 2005 11:09 - 823 of 2787

3 v 3 all at 0.6 - 0.7

sidtrix - 17 Jun 2005 11:23 - 824 of 2787

Sell limit down to 100k-150k now, price may fall a lil like yesterday but will bounce back to the .7 within the next week or two!
Should be close to .9 before interams and then after that hopefully a jump to the 1-1.5 level

ptholden - 17 Jun 2005 15:20 - 825 of 2787

TGM deal completed, money should be in the bank for DGT

pth

National Express Group PLC
17 June 2005




For immediate release on Friday 17 June 2005



National Express Group PLC

Completion of the acquisition of Tellings Golden Miller London Bus Division


Further to the announcement of 1 June 2005, National Express Group PLC
('National Express') confirms that it has completed the purchase of the London
Bus Division of Tellings Golden Miller PLC.


moneyplus - 17 Jun 2005 15:26 - 826 of 2787

out of boring PXC for a small loss to add to my holding here--at least the blue line is rising nicely hope it continues next week.

moneyplus - 17 Jun 2005 15:26 - 827 of 2787

out of boring PXC for a small loss to add to my holding here--at least the blue line is rising nicely hope it continues next week.

stockdog - 17 Jun 2005 15:40 - 828 of 2787

Little bit of profit taking today has brought the price down to 3 X 3 .58/.68p since when about 1.8m sells and 600k buys. To be expected after getting a bit more stock in the MMs hands at .6/.7p, then drop the price to sell them back. May need to drop back a tad more to square the books before end of week. But should see continue strength again next week.

sd

sidtrix - 17 Jun 2005 15:41 - 829 of 2787

moneyplus.. totally understand ur sentiment... also sold out on Pxc earlier this month for a lil profit (that share is a mule, althou it will come good one day)
I should have also topped up on DGT with the profit however put it in Vane! oh well my initial investment from .3 has doubled :)

stockdog - 17 Jun 2005 16:03 - 830 of 2787

WINS needs some stock - put the bid up to 0.6p again - other MMs stay at 058p.

stockdog - 17 Jun 2005 16:22 - 831 of 2787

So my half year prediction, as promised - publish and be damned . . .

H1 revenues 1,126,625
H1 interest 15,000
H1 overheads 600,000
H1 profits 541,625

H2 revenues 1,025,875
H2 interest 25,000
H2 overheads 700,000
H2 profits 350,875

Year Profits 892,500 (increased from last time by 40k interest earned on cash at bank now allowed)
@ 0.64p mid SP = PE of 4.44 - should be about 12, so SP mid should be about 1.73 and SP bid about 1.60 (allowing 15% spread).

If I am about right on H1 results, then my 12 month target is now 1.60 (increase since last figures is the effect of allowing for interest earned for first time) with an inner target by end of 2005 of, say, 1.10.

I have previously asked - what will they do with all the cash? Well, apart from putting it on deposit which won't clothe the baby for long, they may acquire, for example, a fully operation broking team, in which case the specifics of that deal would have considerable effect on sentiment and thus SP, impossible to evaluate with any accuracy from here. If managed by TR and team it should be good for us. I hope I will still be here to see it.

Keep the faith!

sd

ptholden - 17 Jun 2005 16:24 - 832 of 2787

sd

Keeping the faith! will have a look at my own model and see what my H1 comes up with. Should be pretty close to yours I think.

pth

stockdog - 17 Jun 2005 16:38 - 833 of 2787

WINS squared his book and gone home for weekend - lucky sod. Only to MMs quoting till close at .58/.68.

Forgive this minute by minute commentary - just playing with my free level 2 access whilst I have it.

sd

EWRobson - 17 Jun 2005 20:05 - 834 of 2787

goD Omniscient sort of stuff, if not omnipotent. Very helpful to have your L2 commentary - have learnt a lot without taking the trial which I wouldn't have had time to use. You can see pth having to tear himself away for his golf.

Volumes are actually still very low so you wonder what will happen when the market becomes aware of the ptoential interim figures. For any site visitors, tis worth taking these projections on board and their implications. Its not often that you can actually work out the results before the company posts them!

cirE nosboR (not that I like what I see in the mirror!)

ptholden - 17 Jun 2005 22:03 - 835 of 2787

sd

My own model gives:

H1 revenue of 1,095,250. If I include yr interest calcualtion of 15,000 and my own overheads figure of 500,000, I arrive at a profit of 610,250. This equates to a mid SP of 1.1p.

I have used reduced overheads for two reasons. One, a slimmed down team; and two, the actual overheads will include expenses for which will be also reported in turnover. Note my initial figure is for revenues not turnover, hence not included in the overheads column as will be double reported if you see what i mean.

In the final analysis, we seem pretty close, and any differential will be mostly due to the unknowns. At least we know that the SP is still worth nearly double where it is today.

That's the fundamental analysis, what will sentiment and momentum do the price?

pth
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