bosley
- 20 Feb 2004 09:34
superrod
- 08 Feb 2005 15:28
- 822 of 27111
oops...........a typo in the excitement.....meant 11.25 ( hangs head in embarrassment )
Biscuit
- 08 Feb 2005 15:55
- 823 of 27111
Evolution have released an update today with a new price target for SEO of 20p
Jacks
- 08 Feb 2005 15:57
- 824 of 27111
Stick with it everyone. We can all make a huge profit out of this.
aldwickk
- 08 Feb 2005 15:58
- 825 of 27111
what time did they release it, Bicy.
sellsell
- 08 Feb 2005 16:04
- 826 of 27111
From AD_VFN
The EVO update has arrived !!!!
Stanelco and Asda have announced that the results of the first production
trial have beaten expectations. RF-sealed portions of food have lasted
better than heat-sealed food. We raise our price target from 10p to 20p.
We believe the company is on the verge of a startling transformation from
struggling manufacturer to globally successful developer of packaging
technology.
Todays statement reports exceptional results for odour and appearance of
raw food and for odour, appearance and taste of cooked food. We
understand that many of the portions tested were coated in sauce, a key
problem area for heat sealing. These improvements have been achieved
while still reducing packaging costs by 20% and drastically reducing energy
use on the production line.
Without getting too far into detail, this news means full commercialisation is
only weeks away. We expect to see RF-sealed units in Asda supermarkets
within two weeks and anticipate the first commercial orders for RF units
within three weeks.
Based on this confidence we have revised our forecast to bring them closer
to the companys own projection of 200, 1000 and 1000 installations in
FY05, FY06 and FY07 which we outlined in our note of 11
These numbers may seem far-fetched, but we believe they are likely to be
cautious, certainly for the later years. The main risk from this point is the
emergence of a rival system with similar cost-saving abilities. At the moment
there seems to be nothing on the horizon and the company is investing heavily in
legal protection of its intellectual property.
We have not included any revenues from the FrogPack cardboard box design
which was launched earlier this month. This looks promising, but it is too soon to
guess volumes. In any case, they seem unlikely to be material in comparison to
the tray-lidding project.
The results for October 2004 are to be published on 28th February. They will not
look pretty. We expect the company to make a fullish (in its view) provision for its
legal battle with BioProgress. This has cost 0.8m and there is a threat of
damages, although we believe these are unlikely or will be minor. We have set
aside 1.0m in 2004 and a further 0.2m in 2005.
In theory the profit stream at stake from non-gelatine capsules might be worth
10m to 20m per year. This is a serious amount of money but in the context of
Asda it is hardly central. The main point is that Stanelco wants to show it is
serious about defending its intellectual property rights.
Setting a price target is never easy in an emerging technology. We need to be
realistic about the length of time before rivals find a way to get round Stanelcos
patents and replicate its know-how. The importance of the food-sealing
opportunity makes this look a one-product company, which again increases the
perceived risk.
Stanelco points to FrogPack and to the opportunity from its biodegradable
wrapping film. Licence revenues from these could be substantial in the medium
term. But in the short run the shares are bound to bear a larger risk premium.
Even so, a fully taxed PE for October 2008 of around four hardly looks
demanding. Investor enthusiasm is likely to drive the price much further before
excitement cools.
AdieH
- 08 Feb 2005 16:14
- 827 of 27111
mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
EWRobson
- 08 Feb 2005 16:16
- 828 of 27111
Just back in after a day out, although I saw the announcement before leaving. Marvellous to see the excitement on this board; also to see the large buys as the institutions move in - that's the result of the cap. coming up to 100m whcih is starting point for many. Hope I've still got a sense of perspective. Negatives are (i)cc but that is likely to be relatively small beer as must relate to the value to SEO or negative value to BPRG and it has nothing to do with lidding applications; (ii) likely to need additional funds but sp will be high enough to support conventional placing plus limited rights issue for holders; (iii) RNS refers to additional in-store retailling trials so we need to be patient before roll-out of revenue. Positives are: (a) this is a huge step forward and removes a great deal of risk from the investment; (b) it is good that contract negotiation will result in an additional RNS; (c) the institutions are now coming in in a big way.
I think it improtant that holders should not look on SEO as a conventional investment where you take profits having gained 30%, 50% or 100%. Every year there is a small number of emerging shares which change from a valuation as a promising newcomer to a rapidly expanding, broadly accepted player in the market. ASC was in that category last year: they were somewhat ahead in trading terms at the beginning of the year but moved much more rapidly to being profitable than expected and now people take their 75-100% sales growth rate as the norm. By the end of this year, Seo will have major contracts in the bag, will be rolling out machines at 40K a time, have commenced their on-going royalty charges and the world, including the US, will be their oyster.
So what will SEO's value be then? I could try to answer that, but that is not the point of this post. The point is to say: forget the share history and the relatively important negative points and BUY SEO. If you are a holder, don't even think of 'taking profits', but ACCUMULATE. Like Dynamite I am so heavily loaded I am not taking my own advice! But forget the truisms like "its not a profit until you've taken it". What nonsense! You have a real asset in the shares - don't let yurself to be argued into selling that asset at a discount!
Eric
aldwickk
- 08 Feb 2005 16:19
- 829 of 27111
"The world is they lobster " [ Del' boy. ]
AdieH
- 08 Feb 2005 16:21
- 830 of 27111
Good post Eric as you say SEO is different to other investments at this stage, glad I held on yesterday, thanks to all the information posted on here...
wilbs
- 08 Feb 2005 16:21
- 831 of 27111
mange tout aldwickk!!
bhunt1910
- 08 Feb 2005 16:31
- 832 of 27111
Well Eric - I am afraid I was one of the disbeleivers and have sold out a couple of times - only to see the share price surge ahead again - so I have been pursuaded now to get back in and stay in - have missed out on a bit of the price surge - but still massively in profit - thanks mainly to yours and others postings. If I had followed my own analysis - I would have taken my 100% profit and be long gone - but thanks to you - I am still (back) in.
Basa
bhunt1910
- 08 Feb 2005 16:34
- 833 of 27111
Over 25m shares traded today - thats decent volume - n'est ce pas
aldwickk
- 08 Feb 2005 16:37
- 834 of 27111
Luv'ly jub'ly.
Jacks
- 08 Feb 2005 16:44
- 836 of 27111
Adie, are you becoming an SEO convert here?????? Have faith in them, dump the Bioprogress and invest the money in SEO. You know it makes sense, this time next year (as Del says.
Jacks
- 08 Feb 2005 16:52
- 837 of 27111
There is a lot of trader and broker selling late on today, don't let them shake you out. It looks like they are trying to panick people in to selling cheaply. Hang on.
wilbs
- 08 Feb 2005 16:55
- 838 of 27111
mai oui, mai oui!!!
sellsell
- 08 Feb 2005 17:04
- 839 of 27111
Jacks,
Considering the late upwards movement in price I would suggest they were buying !
AdieH
- 08 Feb 2005 17:06
- 840 of 27111
Like to spread the risk, hopefully both will give me lots of profit Jacks... I have been following both threads for sometime now and made money on both, hope to make lots more too.
bosley
- 08 Feb 2005 18:03
- 841 of 27111
lol@superod, thought it might be. fantastic statement by evo. i know it merely confirms what we have all been saying , but it makes our belief kind of official, and it has got some of the big boys on board. evos statement makes interesting reading,
"The main risk from this point is the emergence of a rival system with similar cost-saving abilities. At the moment there seems to be nothing on the horizon and the company is investing heavily in legal protection of its intellectual property."
dont know about you all , but that sentence made me chuckle.....
also , i am not that sure that seo's other technology should be dismissed as small beer. yes, i know that the potential for tray lidding is collosol, but frog pack could be a serious money spinner too. as could the starch trays, totally biodegradable packaging.
thay also re state something we have said about the prelims, that they wont be any good , considering the year seo have had. if an announcement from asda, generally thought to be within three weeks, is to be made , then the prelims would be the time to make it. this should turn any negatives into positives.
also , the numbers they give for potential damges dont seem that scary to me. hope they are correct.
also, are you all cockneys in here? starting to sound like peckham in here!!!!:)